When: General guidance

Then: Let post-catalyst price action and MACD histogram direction define reload trigger

Trim 40-50% of position, set trailing stop at 60.40 based on closing prices, consider protective puts at 60 strike for 30-45 days, do not pre-commit to re-entry level, wait two full sessions after Jackson Hole for confirmed signals before redeploying cash

• Trim 40-50% of position (twice the aggressive analyst's 25-30% reduction) to generate cash and reduce binary event exposure
• Set trailing stop at 60.40 (not 61.50) based on closing prices to avoid stop-hunting at the lower Bollinger band level where ATR compressed at 1.08 creates vulnerability
• Consider purchasing protective puts at the 60 strike for 30-45 days to pay for convexity given elevated implied vol ahead of binary catalyst
• Do not pre-commit to re-entry price at 60.40; wait two full sessions for MACD histogram to show clear direction and volume to confirm the move
• Fundamentals support holding: EPS up 21.6% YoY, ROE at 12.62%, forward P/E of 10.78x vs trailing 12.46, tangible book value up 15.5% YoY, 3.31% dividend yield, beta of 0.977
• Key technical levels: 10 EMA at 63.08, VWMA at 63.60, 50 SMA pivot at 62.50, lower Bollinger band at 61.50, 200 SMA at 55.47 (12% downside)
• MACD histogram at -0.37 is most negative reading since breakdown; Polymarket shows 'Prediction' cooling 5 percentage points WoW suggesting market de-risking dovish scenarios
• The goal is portfolio survival regardless of Jackson Hole outcome, positioned to re-engage from strength not from a stop-triggered exit

→ vs aggressive: A 25-30% trim with 61.50 trailing stop (lower Bollinger band) and 60.40 hard stop is insufficient; ATR compressed at 1.08 guarantees stop-hunting at known technical levels, triggering exits at worst moments before recovery

→ vs aggressive: The 60.40 hard stop is only 4.4% below current levels with a binary event 24 hours away; a single dovish speech from Chair Warsh can move regional bank equities 3-5% in a session, pre-committing to a loss rather than managing risk

→ vs aggressive: The 'dry powder' re-entry thesis at 60.40 assumes conviction to add when tape is ugly, a cleaner setup than current, and no spread/slippage erosion—all unverified assumptions constituting a 're-entry fantasy'

→ vs neutral: HOLD accepts full drawdown if Jackson Hole goes dovish while the bullish base case is largely priced in; the trailing stop framework never gets implemented without a clear stop, and 'wait for 50 SMA to fail' means reacting at 60-70 cents of loss rather than pre-emptively

→ vs neutral: HOLD carries overnight and weekend risk into a binary event with no asymmetric hedge despite the analyst's own technical report flagging six bearish factors with the only bullish factor being the 200 SMA 13% below current price

→ vs neutral: Macro inputs (88% probability of no Fed cuts, 8% recession probability) are inputs to a binary event, not a substitute for managing it; the 200 SMA at 55.47 represents 12% tail risk that should be accounted for before the catalyst, not after

Trim 30-35% of position; set closing-price trailing stop at 60.20 with hard floor at 60.40; do not pre-commit to re-entry price or timing; conditional re-entry based on post-catalyst price action (reclaim 50 SMA at 62.52 for add-back on hawkish-hold; wait for 200 SMA test on dovish break); do not buy protective puts at this sizing; frame as tactical reduction within a continuing core long position

• Trim between 30-35% of position — slightly more than aggressive analyst, slightly less than conservative
• Trailing stop at 60.20 on closing prices (not intraday), hard floor at 60.40
• Do not pre-commit to re-entry price (aggressive) or re-entry timing rule (conservative) — use conditional framework based on actual post-catalyst price action
• Reject protective puts: implied vol elevated 24 hours before binary event, erodes returns regardless of outcome
• Reject conservative wait-two-sessions rule: guarantees missing initial post-catalyst move
• Core holding thesis: 3.31% dividend yield, sustainable payout ratio, four consecutive quarters NII expansion, 21.6% YoY EPS growth, ROE above 12%, tangible book value +15.5% YoY, forward P/E 10.78 vs trailing 12.46
• 6-month outperformance vs S&P 500: 14.7%
• 200 SMA at 55.47 (approximately 12% below current price), structural uptrend intact
• Beta essentially 1.0: high-quality, lower-volatility regional bank
• Base case probabilities: Polymarket pricing 88% probability of no Fed cuts in 2026, 8% recession probability, dovish tail at approximately 12%
• Expected loss from dovish scenario (3-5% drawdown at 12% probability) is approximately 40-60 basis points, already covered by 25-30% trim
• Conservative 40-50% trim 'doubles the cost of hedging for marginal additional protection'
• Aggressive analyst's 61.50 stop too tight given compressed ATR conditions
• Re-entry conditions: hawkish-hold scenario — reclaim 50 SMA at 62.52 with MACD histogram compressing toward zero and constructive volume; dovish scenario — wait for 200 SMA test or clear momentum reset

→ vs aggressive: Directional thesis disguised as risk management — pre-commits to dovish outcome while overweighting 12% tail against 88% base case; ignores long-term structural context (200 SMA at 55.47, 14.7% outperformance, intact uptrend); 'decisive move' is a directional bet against consensus, not a hedged position

→ vs conservative: 40-50% trim excessive given 88% hawkish-hold probability and 8% recession risk — expected value math doesn't justify halving position; treating 12% dovish scenario as 'coin flip' rather than 1-in-8 outcome; protective puts overpriced 24 hours before binary event and erode returns regardless of outcome; wait-two-sessions rule guarantees missing initial post-catalyst move