Hold INTU at $348: maintain exposure without adding as technical structure resolves through dual-trigger framework and partial hedge
Maintain existing INTU exposure at $348 without adding fresh longs. The 12.6x forward P/E valuation anomaly and 8/13 INTU Overweight reflection (-3.3% alpha) justify Hold over Buy—the Death Cross is intact with 200-day MA at $433.72 ($85+ overhead). The 8/17 INTU Underweight reflection (+5.1% alpha, wrong direction) and bear-case fair value ($342-$380) within 10% of price reject Underweight framing, as franchise pillars (80.8% gross margins, 47% operating margins, 22.5% ROE, $5.23B+ TTM FCF, $1.48B net debt at 0.52x leverage, ~5% buyback yield, $8.82B deferred revenue) remain structurally intact. The 8/26 INTU reflection (alpha-neutral outcome with 30% residual) confirms over-trimming was the alpha leak, not a defense against further loss. The two-trigger architecture and partial hedge into Jackson Hole represent the calibrated path forward.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Close > $370 on >6M volume | Scale in thirds: 1/3 above $370, 1/3 above $400, 1/3 above $430 |
| Close < $335 on elevated volume | Trim toward lower end of any existing position |
| Weekly close below $295 | Structural invalidation - exit or significantly reduce |
Intuit is a structurally mispriced high-quality software franchise trading at 12.6x forward P/E with accelerating 15.6% revenue growth and 30%+ FCF margins—the bear's narrative-driven case ignores three consecutive years of fundamental acceleration and the AI threat is a disruption story not backed by actual revenue data.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| close_10_ema | $351.63 | neutral |
| close_50_sma | $305.09 | bullish |
| close_200_sma | $433.72 | bearish |
| macd | 13.69 | bearish |
| macd_signal | 14.74 | bearish |
| macd_histogram | -1.05 | bearish |
| rsi | 56.15 | neutral |
| boll_mid | $342.07 | neutral |
| boll_ub | $376.06 | bearish |
| boll_lb | $308.07 | bullish |
| atr | $15.88 | neutral |
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Close < $335 on elevated volume
Then: Trim signal targeting $305-$308 retest
The MACD bearish cross is a single data point at neutral RSI—not a regime change signal
↩ rebuts: “Bear's MACD 'fresh bearish cross' as a sell signal”
EV: +Asymmetric to upside on 12-24 month horizon · concedes: AI disruption narrative is the bear's strongest argument—surface-level validity conceded; MACD did flip bearish (from +0.05 to -1.05); 11.4M volume on 8/26 was elevated and looked ugly; JPM cut PT to $331 citing AI; Two downgrades in a week creates fear; Technical picture is messy after a 47% bounce; Mailchimp carve-out acknowledged as neutral-to-slightly bearish for clarity by some analysts
INTU is not cheap — it's a stock that the market is correctly pricing at a discount because forward earnings are at risk, AI disruption is accelerating, pricing power is eroding, and the technical setup confirms a dead-cat bounce rather than a sustainable recovery.
EV: -$305 to $308 (50 SMA + Bollinger lower band) — 12-13% downside; worst case retest of $252 low — 27% downside · concedes: Net cash balance of $1.5B is real and provides some cushion; 6.8% FCF yield is real; Q2 beat on earnings is real; Strong balance sheet exists to weather some adversity
→ vs conservative: Waiting for close above 370 on 6 million volume means buying 6-7 percent higher after easy money is made; confirmation trading misses bottoms
→ vs neutral: HOLD position leaves 30 to 50 percent of potential returns on table while accepting roughly same downside risk as aggressive stance
→ vs neutral: 88 percent odds of zero cuts already priced in; waiting for Jackson Hole stabilization means chasing at 420
| vwma | $349.39 | bearish |
Support: 342 · 335 · 308 · 305 | Resistance: 369.92 · 376.06 · 400
INTU is mid-rebound inside a still-intact long-term downtrend, with momentum just flipping negative and distribution-grade volume confirming the latest leg down. The setup is asymmetric to the downside near-term. Recommended stance: HOLD (no fresh long entries; existing longs should tighten stops). A SELL bias is appropriate for traders without existing exposure — wait for either a clean reclaim above $370 with volume to flip constructive, or a failed bounce at $335–$342 for a short trigger toward $305.
Market Capitalization
$95.19 B
P/E Ratio (TTM)
21.14x
Forward P/E
12.59x
PEG Ratio
0.93
Price to Book
4.63x
EPS (TTM)
$16.46
Forward EPS
$27.64
Dividend Yield
1.39%
Beta
0.959
52-Week High
$705.08
52-Week Low
$252.84
50-Day MA
$304.08
200-Day MA
$437.98
Revenue (TTM)
$21.45 B
Gross Profit
$17.37 B
Gross Margin
~81.0%
EBITDA
$6.85 B
Operating Margin
17.6%
Net Income (TTM)
$4.57 B
Profit Margin
21.3%
Return on Equity (ROE)
23.6%
Return on Assets (ROA)
10.5%
Free Cash Flow
$6.44 B
FCF Margin
~30.0%
Cash & Equivalents
$4.681 B
Short-Term Investments
$3.761 B
Total Liquid Assets
$8.442 B
Total Assets
$39.330 B
Current Liabilities
$12.276 B
Long-Term Debt
$5.412 B
Total Debt
$6.900 B
Net Debt
$1.481 B
Stockholders' Equity
$20.629 B
Current Ratio
1.51x
Goodwill
$14.0 B
Goodwill + Intangibles
$18.789 B
Debt/Equity
0.33x
Revenue FY2025
$18.83 B
Revenue YoY Growth FY2025
+15.6%
Net Income FY2025
$3.87 B
Diluted EPS FY2025
$13.67
EPS YoY Growth FY2025
+31.1%
Revenue FY2024
$16.29 B
Revenue YoY Growth FY2024
+13.4%
Net Income FY2024
$2.96 B
Diluted EPS FY2024
$10.43
Revenue FY2023
$14.37 B
Revenue YoY Growth FY2023
+12.9%
Net Income FY2023
$2.38 B
Diluted EPS FY2023
$8.42
Revenue FY2022
$12.73 B
Net Income FY2022
$2.07 B
Diluted EPS FY2022
$7.28
EBITDA FY2025
$5.89 B
EBITDA FY2022
$3.37 B
Q4 FY2026 Revenue (Apr-26)
$8.56 B
Q4 FY2026 Revenue YoY
+10.4%
Q4 FY2026 Diluted EPS
$11.09
Q4 FY2026 EPS YoY
+10.7%
Q4 FY2026 Operating Income
$4.02 B
Q4 FY2026 Operating Margin
47%
Cost of Revenue FY2025
$3.85 B
R&D FY2025
$2.93 B
Sales & Marketing FY2025
$5.04 B
G&A FY2025
$1.60 B
Total OpEx FY2025
$10.05 B
Total Debt/Equity
0.33x
Current Deferred Revenue Apr-26
$8.8 B
Treasury Stock FY2022
$14.8 B
Treasury Stock Apr-26
$24.9 B
Dividends Paid FY2025
$1.19 B
Dividends Paid FY2024
$1.03 B
Dividends Paid FY2023
$0.89 B
Dividends Paid FY2022
$0.77 B
Dividend CAGR 4-Year
~15%
Buybacks FY2025
$2.77 B
Buybacks FY2024
$1.99 B
Operating Cash Flow FY2025
$6.21 B
Operating Cash Flow FY2024
$4.88 B
Operating Cash Flow FY2023
$5.05 B
Operating Cash Flow FY2022
$3.89 B
CapEx FY2025
($0.12 B)
CapEx FY2024
($0.25 B)
CapEx FY2023
($0.26 B)
CapEx FY2022
($0.23 B)
Free Cash Flow FY2025
$6.08 B
Free Cash Flow FY2024
$4.63 B
Free Cash Flow FY2023
$4.79 B
Free Cash Flow FY2022
$3.66 B
FCF Margin FY2025
~32%
Acquisitions FY2022
($5.68 B)
Capital Returns FY2025
$3.96 B
Capital Returns as % FCF
~65%
Q4 FY2026 Operating Cash Flow
$5.30 B
Q4 FY2026 CapEx
($0.06 B)
Q4 FY2026 Free Cash Flow
$5.24 B
Q3 FY2026 Free Cash Flow
$1.52 B
Q2 FY2026 Free Cash Flow
$0.60 B
Q1 FY2026 Free Cash Flow
$0.36 B
Q4 FY2025 Free Cash Flow
$4.36 B
FCF Yield (FCF/Mkt Cap)
~6.8%
Combined Buyback+Dividend Yield
~5%
Strengths
Concerns
Intuit Inc. is a high-quality SaaS compounder trading at an unusually low forward P/E of 12.6x with accelerating revenue growth (15.6% FY25) and exceptional profitability metrics including 23.6% ROE and 30%+ FCF margins. The stock has experienced a severe drawdown from its $705 high to approximately $348, creating a compelling risk/reward setup for patient investors, though the downtrend below the 200-day moving average warrants a measured position-building approach with HOLD/incremental-buy-on-weakness strategy.
Macro: Restrictive monetary policy environment with 88% implied probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 per Polymarket ($7.6M traded volume); July PCE inflation came in hotter than expected, reinforcing no-cut pricing; Jackson Hole Fed speech this week presents hawkish surprise risk historically pressuring software multiples; software sector under broad pressure from AI-disruption fears with SAP and Zoom also downgraded this week.