When: Price reaches $215–218 AND prints confirmed capitulation (RSI sub-30 with bullish divergence on successive lower-lows, declining volume climax, MACD histogram flattening/hooking up)

Then: Add back trimmed portion or scale larger position

When: Price closes above $247 (10 EMA) on above-average volume for ≥2 consecutive sessions, RSI reclaims 50 with bullish divergence, MACD histogram turns positive, and 200 SMA stabilizes or monthly SSS prints positive

Then: Scale back in over 2–4 weeks; target $263 (50 SMA) initial add, full re-engagement at $288–293 (200 SMA zone)

HOLD the full position; if adjustment needed, tighten trailing stop to approximately $225 rather than trim or rotate into Treasuries

• MCD beta of 0.414 indicates defensive compounder, not cyclical consumer name
• 3.24% dividend yield comparison to 5% Treasuries ignores buyback yield at depressed prices and historical re-rating potential when rates peak
• Capitulation with 16.6 million shares traded and RSI of 25 has historically marked bottoms for defensive compounders like MCD
• Stop at $230 is too tight given ATR of $5.12; 2x ATR stop sits at $226.78 and capitulation low printed at $234.03 with volume
• Selling at cyclical bottom to lock in Treasury yield is a 5-to-10 year compounding error
• Partial 25-30% trim creates worst of both worlds: locks in losses, retains full downside on 70%, triggers taxable events and behavioral risk
• Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.7x, ROA of 13.25%, 46.5% operating margin, 84% FCF conversion, 56% payout ratio demonstrate business health
• Discipline means holding quality cash-generative assets through drawdowns, not rotating to crowded trades at yield peaks

→ vs aggressive: The 'regime change' narrative confuses a 12-month drawdown with structural identity change; 47-year dividend growth streak, 46.5% operating margin, $7.2B FCF, and 95%-plus franchised model did not disappear

→ vs aggressive: The 'yield arbitrage' math is static and one-dimensional; ignores 12.8% three-year EPS CAGR, buyback yield at depressed prices, and historical sharp re-rating when macro shifts

→ vs aggressive: Buying 5% Treasuries at multi-decade yield highs is buying the exact same peak the aggressive analyst warns about in equities; rotating to duration-heavy bonds is not arbitrage but correlation

→ vs aggressive: Capitulation volume is seller exhaustion, not unsettled stampede; capitulation has historically been a buy signal for defensive compounders

→ vs aggressive: $230 stop is too tight and likely to trigger whipsaw on routine intraday volatility; $225 stop balances capitulation level while providing room to breathe

→ vs aggressive: If the aggressive analyst truly believed in structural breakdown, they should advocate full exit; partial exits destroy conviction without the benefit of certainty

→ vs aggressive: 'Attachment is not a strategy, rotation is' principle is agreed with but misapplied; true discipline is holding through drawdowns, not rotating to crowded yield trades at peaks

Trim 10-15% of MCD position; split proceeds between short-duration Treasuries and cash; maintain core position with $224-$225 stop

• Recommend 10-15% trim (smaller than aggressive's 25-30%, larger than conservative's zero)
• Stop loss at $224-$225 (2.5x ATR of $5.12 from $237 entry = $224.22), wider than aggressive's $230 stop (only 1.4x ATR)
• Re-entry trigger at $215-$218 if stock breaks below capitulation low
• Take-profit zone at $247-$252 near 10 EMA overhead resistance
• Split trimmed proceeds: ~50% into short-duration Treasuries at 5% yield, ~50% in cash/money-market
• Core position maintained at 85-90% to preserve dividend capture and mean-reversion optionality
• 200 SMA at $288 rolling over from May 2026 peak near $301 but historically re-accelerated after similar macro stress events
• MACD histogram at -1.32 and expanding; September 24 was new closing low at session low suggesting capitulation incomplete
• Aggressive $230 stop is too tight (1.4x ATR) and will get stopped out on routine volatility
• Conservative refusal to trim is a category error: quality of business doesn't override tactical timing

→ vs aggressive: 5% Treasuries are not riskless arbitrage at multi-decade yield highs; real rates already priced for Fed inaction through 2026; rolling over from 5% could cause 8% loss on Treasury position

→ vs aggressive: Cannot claim asymmetry in both directions; locking in 5% yield on 30% trimmed position forfeits appreciation from $237 to $288 on that same capital

→ vs aggressive: Using 0.414 beta defensive compounder as vehicle for high-conviction cyclical breakdown call is a weak instrument given historical RSI 25-30 bottoming patterns

→ vs conservative: Beta describes sensitivity not immunity; real rates at multi-decade highs compress multiples on all duration-sensitive assets regardless of beta

→ vs conservative: Capitulation volume (16.6M shares) requires confirmation (follow-through day, higher low, close above 10 EMA) before declaring bottom; September 24 print suggests incomplete capitulation

→ vs conservative: Confusing quality of business with buy-and-hold signal; fundamentals determine what to buy, not when to buy; 31% interest expense rise over 3 years is real near-term drag

→ vs conservative: 200 SMA rolling over from $301 to $288 during multi-decade real rate environment warrants tactical adjustment regardless of long-term thesis