When: Flush to $170-175 with RSI sub-30 bullish divergence

Then: Upgrade to Buy at 50-60% of original allocation

When: Confirmed close >$193.93 (200 SMA reclaim) on volume >3.5M AND RSI >50

Then: Upgrade to Overweight targeting $203.71 and $215 over 6-12 months

WAIT - Do not initiate fresh long position in confirmed downtrend; preserve capital until either a daily close above 189.50 on declining volume confirms the bounce, or a 179.00 failure clarifies the breakdown. If entering at all, reduce to 25% size with wider stop below 172.96.

• Confirmed death-cross configuration: 50 SMA at 203.71, 200 SMA at 193.93, 10 EMA at 185.43 all stacked above price with medium-term averages sloping down
• ATR of 3.62 exceeds the 5.50 stop distance (184 entry to 178.50 stop), meaning normal intraday volatility can trigger stops before meaningful bounce develops
• Forward P/E of 23.5x based on EPS growth is "consensus hope" not consensus reality; Q3 2026 revenue/margin disappointment could cause 15-20% derating
• Goodwill of 84 billion with negative tangible book creates single-currency event risk; segment-level impairment tests not favorably priced
• Zero institutional headlines and zero retail engagement for trailing week signals information vacuum, not bullish absence
• Geopolitical premium already captured in prior 155-to-226 run; 10Y bond-yield spike is identified headwind alongside acknowledged tailwind
• Bullish RSI divergence requires higher low today confirmed by tomorrow holding above 184, then reclaim at 185.50 above 10 EMA - multiple confirmations needed
• Bollinger lower band tagged at 179.02 yesterday; prior April 22nd low at 172.96 as wider stop anchor if reduced-size entry pursued

→ vs aggressive: MA analysis is survivor bias - aggressive analyst remembered times bearish MA alignment preceded bottoms but forgot failures; current death-cross is a regime, not a buying opportunity

→ vs aggressive: RSI divergence prints frequently inside structural downtrends without price confirmation and is more often a teaser than a signal; cannot simultaneously argue urgency to act now at 183.50 while requiring 185.50 reclaim validation

→ vs aggressive: Forward P/E of 23.5x justified by 38% EPS growth embeds Street estimates that are "consensus hope" not locked reality; any Q3 2026 disappointment re-expands the multiple and risks 15-20% derating on repricing alone

→ vs aggressive: Geopolitical tailwinds (16% Iran strike, 16% Russia-Ukraine ceasefire) already priced during 155-to-226 run that corrected 19%; arguing for second leg of thesis already paid by prior move

→ vs aggressive: Goodwill dismissal ignores impairment trigger thresholds, most recent test dates, and cushion between carrying value and fair value at segment level; cannot shrug at 84 billion goodwill with negative tangible book

→ vs aggressive: Risk-reward math flawed - ATR of 3.62 means daily range exceeds 5.50 stop distance, giving trade almost no room to breathe; stop placed by hope, not volatility analysis

Tactical BUY at 35-45% of typical size, staged entry, stop at 175.50, targets at 189.50/193.90/199.86

• BUY thesis is valid in principle; direction is correct
• Size at 35-45% of typical (not 50-75% or 25%); 5.50 stop was structurally flawed given 3.62 ATR
• Staged entry: 40% now at 184, 30% on confirmed higher low above 184, 30% reserved for 180 retest or post-earnings
• Stop anchored at 175.50 (below April 172.96 prior low with buffer); a 5.50 stop is a coin flip, not a trade
• Realistic targets: 189.50 (Bollinger middle), 193.90 (200 SMA), 199.86 (Bollinger upper); forget 204 peak
• Q3 earnings in ~3 weeks and GTF warranty reserve update are binary catalysts; no adding in 5 sessions before earnings
• 23.5x forward P/E reflects delivered EPS growth and FCF expansion; reasonable IF company executes, punitive if soft
• R/R to 189.50 is ~1-to-1, to 193.90 is ~1.6-to-1, to 199.86 is ~2.7-to-1; asymmetry requires full mean reversion to payoff
• RSI divergence at 19, MACD histogram near zero, Bollinger lower band tag held simultaneously
• MACD line at negative 5.46, signal at negative 5.35; actual cross has not occurred yet
• Geopolitical backdrop is a demand-side tailwind; bond yield moves without recession repricing are the macro downside risk

→ vs aggressive: MACD histogram near zero is a precursor, not confirmation; MACD line cross has not occurred yet; trading one step ahead of the actual signal

→ vs aggressive: Target of 204 and 3-to-4-to-1 R/R is aspirational, not realistic; realistic measured move is 189.50-193.90 on 175.50 stop, yielding ~1-to-1 to 1.6-to-1, not 3-to-4-to-1

→ vs aggressive: Survivor bias on bearish MAs preceding rallies; aggressive analyst ignored many instances where bearish MAs preceded further downside

→ vs conservative: Waiting for close above 189.50 to act gives up 5-8 points of the move; RSI will be at 50, MACD will have crossed, and position would be entered as the move matures, not begins

→ vs conservative: Patience argument is overstated; waiting for first 1-2 session confirmation of higher low is reasonable, but waiting beyond that is fatal patience

→ vs conservative: Goodwill concern is valid but overstated; sector-wide feature not unique to RTX, though absence of recent impairment transparency warrants small additional caution