| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Post-earnings retest at $505-510 with constructive cash/buyback disclosure | 50-75% position sizing on 10-EMA retest |
| Thesis reassessment triggered | Close below $480 requires full position review |
Berkshire Hathaway deserves a BUY rating because the 52-week high represents a confirmation signal of exceptional fundamentals—$373.3B in cash earning 4-5% T-bill yields, a new CEO actively deploying capital into conviction names, and a fortress balance sheet with negative net leverage—all trading at a 30% P/E discount to the S&P 500.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| close_10_ema | 513.76 | bullish |
| close_50_sma | 495.07 | bullish |
| close_200_sma | 491.03 | bullish |
| macd | 7.55 | bullish |
| macds | 5.26 | bullish |
| macd_histogram | 2.29 | bullish |
| rsi | 70.12 | bearish |
| boll_ub | 527.74 | neutral |
| boll_middle | 502.60 | — |
| boll_lb | 477.45 | — |
| atr | 7.45 | — |
Support: 491.03 · 495.07 · 513.76 | Resistance: 527.74
BRK-B exhibits a clearly bullish technical regime with the close at 521.80 positioned above all three moving averages (10 EMA 513.76, 50 SMA 495.07, 200 SMA 491.03) and positive MACD momentum (7.55 vs signal 5.26, histogram 2.29). The primary tactical concern is RSI at 70.12 just above overbought territory, combined with the close sitting only 5.94 points below the upper Bollinger Band at 527.74, suggesting limited immediate upside for new entries. Latest session on 2026-08-07 showed a modest pullback from 524.61 to 521.80 with volume declining to 2,721,178 from prior session's 4,352,800. The appropriate stance is HOLD for existing positions while new buyers should wait for either a pullback toward the 10 EMA or a confirmed close above 527.74.
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
BRK-B Hold: Structural Quality Intact But Tactical Setup Extended Into Binary Earnings Catalyst
BRK-B Hold is calibrated to avoid overbought entries into a binary catalyst while preserving structural conviction and converting patience into execution-ready positioning. The 0.607 beta, $373B cash float, and TTM P/E 15.54 support long-term compounding, but the forward P/E 24.19, RSI 70.12, and buyback halt ($0 in 2025 vs $9.2B in 2023) counsel against new capital deployment at $521.80. Management's capital allocation decisions serve as the most damning insider valuation signal. The post-earnings $505-510 zone with constructive disclosure transforms this Hold from passive waiting into actionable alpha capture at 50-75% sizing.
When: Close below $480
Then: Trigger thesis reassessment
Insurance float is a structural weapon generating $23.3B in interest income, up 127% from $10.3B in 2022
↩ rebuts: “Bear claim that sticky 3.3-3.4% inflation limits multiple expansion”
· concedes: The 2025 EPS was inflated by ~$23B in investment gains during a strong market — forward EPS of $21.57 reflects normalization rather than growth; TTM EPS of $33.58 is meaningfully above the $21.57 forward estimate — a 36% expected decline, though this is base-effect rather than fundamental deterioration
HOLD is the correct call; fresh buyers at $521.80 should wait for post-earnings confirmation or a pullback to $500-510, as the tactical setup flashes caution despite intact structural fundamentals.
· concedes: Berkshire will compound book value at 8-10% over the next decade (structural story intact); BNSF merger fight may be moat reinforcement if merger is blocked; T-bill income of ~$15-18B annually is real (though inadequate per Buffett's own historical standards); GEICO float is genuinely valuable in sticky-inflation environment (though claims costs also elevated); Sticky inflation does help insurance float purchasing power; Core business quality is intact—Abel may prove to be a capable allocator over time
→ vs conservative: Waiting for post-earnings confirmation before adding is performance anxiety, not risk management; the stock moved from 488 to 521.80 while the 'wait for confirmation' crowd missed the entire move
→ vs conservative: Discipline in waiting for 3-5% drawdown on a 0.607 beta stock is optimizing for the wrong variable; being cautious about a position with 40% less volatility than the market is misplaced
→ vs conservative: Diversification is the wrong approach when data supports concentration in quality names with strong cash generation and brand durability
→ vs neutral: Accumulation zone of $495-510 offers only 5-7% expected return if lucky, versus capturing the full structural thesis generating double-digit returns annually
→ vs neutral: Waiting for 'comfortable entry' means either chasing higher or missing a move that may never revisit those levels
→ vs conservative: RSI at 70.12 is mechanical thinking, not analytical thinking; in persistent uptrends RSI can stay elevated for weeks or months while price continues higher
→ vs conservative: The 5.94 points of room to upper Bollinger Band is a measured breakout setup, not a warning sign to fade the position
Market Cap
$1.125 T
P/E (TTM)
15.54
Forward P/E
24.19
P/B (implied)
~1.5x
EPS (Diluted, TTM)
$33.58
Forward EPS
$21.57
EPS (Diluted, 2025)
$31.04
PEG Ratio
10.06
52-Week High
$521.99
52-Week Low
$462.55
50-Day MA
$492.02
200-Day MA
$490.48
Beta
0.607
Net Profit Margin
19.3%
Operating Margin
14.4%
ROE
10.5%
ROA
5.4%
Revenue (2025)
$410.5 B
Net Income (2025)
$67.0 B
EBIT (2025)
$87.5 B
Interest Expense (2025)
$5.1 B
Interest Income (2025)
$23.3 B
Effective Tax Rate (2025)
18.4%
Total Assets (2025)
$1.222 T
Cash + ST Investments (2025)
$373.3 B
Investment Portfolio (2025)
$657.0 B
Long-term Debt (2025)
$125.8 B
Total Debt (2025)
$129.1 B
Total Equity (2025)
$719.7 B
Tangible Book Value (2025)
$600.5 B
Goodwill & Intangibles (2025)
$116.9 B
Net PPE (2025)
$235.2 B
Retained Earnings (2025)
$763.2 B
Current Ratio
2.88
Operating Cash Flow (2025)
$46.0 B
Free Cash Flow (2025)
$25.0 B
FCF (TTM)
$61.2 B
Capital Expenditure (2025)
$20.9 B
Buybacks (2025)
$0
Dividends Paid
$0
EBITDA
$118.0 B
Insurance Float
$170.0 B+
Net Income 2022
($22.8 B)
Net Income 2023
$96.2 B
Net Income 2024
$89.0 B
Strengths
Concerns
Berkshire Hathaway is a mega-cap diversified conglomerate ($1.125T market cap) with insurance operations (GEICO, General Re, BHRG), railroad (BNSF), energy (BHE), and manufacturing/service businesses generating ~$410B in annual revenue. The company holds a $657B equity investment portfolio alongside $373.3B in cash—essentially an "elephant gun loaded" for opportunistic deployment—while maintaining minimal leverage ($125.8B debt) against a growing tangible book value of $600.5B. Trading at 15.54x TTM P/E (24.19x forward) near its 200-day moving average, the stock appears range-bound pending a catalyst; the most significant near-term trigger would be deployment of the massive cash hoard via a major acquisition or resumption of buybacks, without which the stock is expected to remain consolidating between $462-$522.