Trim 35-40% at ~$921; stop at $872; no new longs below $964
Underweight rating is correct due to asymmetric directional risk-reward with technical setup unambiguously negative (four failed rallies with lower highs since April, MACD deeply negative, RSI drifting, price below all three major moving averages), 62x EV/EBITDA with ~2% FCF yield in 'higher for longer' regime providing no margin of safety, and forward P/E of 36.8x vs trailing 26.4x telegraphing earnings normalization that Q3 comparable base will punish ($13.39 EPS inflated by deferred tax benefit rolls off). However, full exit is rejected due to $39.94B backlog, $10.3B net cash fortress, three secular demand drivers, and 200 SMA structural floor establishing asymmetric re-entry optionality. The 35-40% trim calibration is validated by prior decision history (8/18, 8/20, 8/21, 8/26, 8/27, 8/28, 8/31) consistently showing this as appropriate for structurally-intact AI infrastructure names.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Current market levels (~$921) | Trim 35-40% of GEV exposure |
| Closing price below $872 on volume confirmation | Hard exit remaining core position |
| Confirmed close above $964 on volume >3M | Re-engage long position |
| Confirmed close below $878 | Exit remaining position (structural breakdown) |
| Below $964 | Do not initiate new long positions |
GE Vernova represents a generational long entry at $921, with technical support confluence at the 200 SMA and Bollinger lower band having rejected price on Sep 2, supported by record revenue and doubling customer advances, plus three structurally independent demand catalysts (AI power bottleneck, Venezuela signing, grid hardening) that de-risk the bull case.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| close_50_sma | 1,023.04 | bearish |
| close_200_sma | 880.15 | neutral |
| close_10_ema | 942.24 | bearish |
| rsi | 40.35 | neutral |
| macd | -28.47 | bearish |
| macd_signal | -20.09 | bearish |
| macd_histogram | -8.39 | neutral |
| boll | 982.62 | neutral |
| boll_ub | 1,087.06 | bearish |
| boll_lb | 878.18 | bullish |
| atr | 47.01 | neutral |
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Confirmed close below $878
Then: Exit remaining position
Customer advances (deferred revenue) doubled year-over-year, de-risking the next 2-3 years of revenue
↩ rebuts: “Bear case that P/E ratios indicate stretched valuation”
EV: +13.5% (50 SMA target at $1,023 from $921.94 entry) · concedes: Wind segment down 40% is a real headwind, already known and partially discounted in the 24% drawdown; SpaceX building turbine blades — not a threat for 3-5 years as they're building for internal/captive use only; Tariff risk is symmetric across global OEMs, but GEV's US/European manufacturing footprint provides relative insulation; P/B of 20.5x appears high on surface, though the report argues P/B is wrong lens for this asset-light FCF-driven industrial
GE Vernova at $921 is priced for perfection with zero margin of safety, trading at bubble-level multiples on normalized operating earnings while macro headwinds (higher-for-longer rates), competitive threats (SpaceX, CAT, hyperscalers vertically integrating), structural wind segment decline, and earnings normalization create a asymmetric risk profile that slightly favors the downside.
EV: −$33 · concedes: Structural power thesis is valid — AI capex demand is real; Venezuela opportunity, while speculative, exists as optionality; Grid hardening and nuclear renaissance are genuine multi-decade tailwinds; 200 SMA at $880 has held for three sessions — near-term support intact; Customer advances do signal demand lock-in, even if they create liability risk
→ vs conservative: Fortress balance sheet, Venezuela deal, and gas turbine pricing power are all priced in; waiting for confirmation means learning you've been wrong after the damage is done
→ vs neutral: Waiting for 942 reclaim or 878 breakdown treats this as a fifty-fifty coin flip, but the setup is asymmetric with valuation, duration risk, and ongoing distribution stacking the deck to the downside
→ vs conservative: Technical breakdowns regularly precede fundamental revisions by weeks or months; fundamentals are slow-moving narratives while price action is already screaming distribution
| vwma | 963.95 | bearish |
Support: 878.18 · 880.15 · 898.53 | Resistance: 942.24 · 963.95 · 982.62 · 1023.04 · 1087.06
GEV is in a constructive but unconfirmed bounce following a -23.9% drawdown from April 2026 highs. The Sep 2 low of $882.97 tapped the critical 200 SMA/Bollinger lower band confluence at ~878-880, triggering a +2.6% reversal to $921.94. However, price remains decisively below the 50 SMA (1,023.04), 10 EMA (942.24), and VWMA (963.95), with RSI at 40.35 (weak but not oversold) and MACD still deeply negative at -28.47. The first tactical bullish trigger is a daily close above 942 on volume ≥3M; a break below 878 would confirm capitulation. HOLD for existing positions; await confirmation before initiating new trades.
Market Capitalization
$245.5B
Share Price
~$921
52-Week High
$1,195.94
52-Week Low
$530.16
50-Day Moving Average
$1,022.84
200-Day Moving Average
$880.66
Trailing P/E
26.4x
Forward P/E
36.8x
PEG Ratio
1.75
Price/Book
20.5x
Beta
1.03
Dividend Yield
0.22%
Shares Outstanding
266.3M
Revenue (TTM)
$41.37B
Gross Profit (TTM)
$8.51B
Gross Margin (TTM)
20.6%
EBITDA (TTM)
$3.93B
Net Income (TTM)
$9.53B
Profit Margin
23.0%
Operating Margin
7.5%
Return on Equity (ROE)
82.6%
Return on Assets (ROA)
2.5%
EPS (TTM)
$34.86
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
$15.72B
Free Cash Flow (FY2025)
$3.71B
Free Cash Flow (FY2022)
-$627M
Operating Cash Flow (FY2025)
$4.99B
Revenue FY2022
$29.65B
Revenue FY2023
$33.24B
Revenue FY2024
$34.94B
Revenue FY2025
$38.07B
Operating Income FY2022
-$2.88B
Operating Income FY2023
-$923M
Operating Income FY2024
$471M
Operating Income FY2025
$1.39B
Net Income FY2022
-$2.74B
Net Income FY2023
-$438M
Net Income FY2024
$1.55B
Net Income FY2025
$4.88B
Diluted EPS FY2022
-$10.06
Diluted EPS FY2023
-$1.60
Diluted EPS FY2024
$5.58
Diluted EPS FY2025
$17.69
CapEx FY2025
$1.28B
Buybacks (TTM)
~$7B
Q1 2025 Revenue
$9.11B
Q2 2025 Revenue
$9.97B
Q3 2025 Revenue
$10.96B
Q4 2025 Revenue
$9.34B
Q2 2026 Revenue
$11.10B
Cash & Equivalents
$13.12B
Total Debt
$2.79B
Net Cash Position
~$10.3B
Total Assets
$80.80B
Stockholders' Equity
$11.96B
Goodwill & Intangibles
$14.20B
Customer Advances (Deferred Revenue)
$39.94B
Current Ratio
0.85
Book Value per Share
$44.90
Debt/Equity
28.4x
Unusual Items (Q1 2026)
$4.41B
Deferred Tax Benefit (Q4 2025)
$2.57B
Strengths
Concerns
HOLD with positive bias on weakness. GE Vernova operates exceptional fundamentals — accelerating revenue, inflecting FCF, fortress balance sheet, and structural demand tailwinds from AI/data-center electrification. However, the Forward P/E of 36.8x vs. Trailing P/E of 26.4x reveals the market expects near-term earnings normalization as one-time gains ($4.41B unusual items + $2.57B deferred tax benefit) roll off, while the 20.5x P/B presents elevated multiple compression risk. A pullback toward the 200-DMA (~$880) would offer more attractive risk/reward for fresh longs.
Macro: Prediction-market signals indicate hawkish Fed policy persistence (89% no-2026-cuts odds) with soft-landing base case (8% US recession odds); synchronized non-recession globally (UK/Japan recession at 7-8%, both fading); FRED macro data unavailable this session.