Trim 10-15% at ~$368; retain 85-90% core with stop at $353
GE merits an Underweight trim at current levels due to stretched valuation (43x P/E, 5.39 PEG, 21.65x P/B), active momentum deterioration (MACD collapsed 66%, Aug-05 failure at $384.51), and asymmetric macro exposure (1.366 beta into Aug-12 CPI). However, the core secular thesis remains intact (48.2% ROE, $176B backlog, 21% revenue growth, $2.86B quarterly FCF, services annuity, LEAP/GEnx deals to 2034), and prior Underweight calls on this name (8/7 and 8/10) demonstrated that quality floors hold longer than momentum frameworks anticipate. The 10-15% trim (calibrated below the aggressive 25-30% target) captures the asymmetric risk/reward without paying the convexity tax of a full exit, while the $353 stop provides structurally correct protection at the medium-term trend invalidation level.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Current price ~$368 or modest bounce into $370-375 zone | Execute 10-15% trim immediately; do not wait for $384.51 resistance level |
| Price drops to $353 (50 SMA) | Stop out remaining position - medium-term trend invalidation confirmed |
| Price approaches $334 (lower Bollinger) or $317 (200 SMA) | Full exit if stop triggered and lower-high structure broken |
| Fundamental deterioration (margin compression, FCF miss, services weakness) | Increase trim to 25-30% or exit entirely |
GE Aerospace is not a stock to wait on—it is an "own" stock delivering 20%+ growth in real time, with a coiled technical setup, supportive macro backdrop, and structural advantages that make the risk of missing upside greater than the risk of paying 21% above modeled fair value.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Close | 368.06 | bullish |
| 10 EMA | 367.27 | neutral |
| 50 SMA | 353.48 | bullish |
| 200 SMA | 316.97 | bullish |
| RSI | 55.73 | neutral |
| RSI Peak (2026-07-06) | 76.6 | bullish |
| RSI Low (2026-07-21) | 42.87 | bullish |
| MACD | 5.61 | bullish |
| MACD Signal | 4.99 | bullish |
| MACD Histogram | +0.62 | neutral |
| MACD Peak (2026-07-02) | 16.63 |
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Pullback into $340-353 zone with RSI <40 and MACD reset
Then: Consider re-engagement with tighter stop; MACD hist reset confirms restart
· concedes: Simply Wall St's model showing GE is 21% above fair value is a legitimate point; GE is cyclical; The PEG of 5.39 looks rich in isolation; A pullback to the $353–$359 zone is a possible scenario
GE trades at punitive valuation extremes (43x P/E, 5.39 PEG) requiring flawless execution with no margin of safety, while technical bear flag formation and deteriorating fundamentals (tight working capital, spiking interest, high leverage) create asymmetric downside risk that outweighs the limited 10% upside to $400-410.
EV: $310-$330 (bear fair value estimate) · concedes: Q2 was excellent; The commercial aerospace services thesis is real; The stock has had a great run; A clean breakout above $384.51 would change the technical picture
→ vs conservative: 200 SMA at $316.97 and golden cross are backward-looking comfort that ignores 21% premium to fair value and 43.45x earnings multiple; trend got GE here but forward signals warn of reversal
→ vs neutral: Holding because fundamentals are strong is like refusing to take profits at blackjack with a good hand; Q2 print ($2.86B FCF, 48.2% ROE, $176B backlog) explains the move, not why more upside is coming
→ vs conservative: Stop at $358 means only 6.8% downside on trim vs 9.3% downside holding to lower Bollinger band at $334.13; waiting for confirmation on bear-flag setup means giving back 10-15% of gains
→ vs neutral: Soft-landing regime at 86% Polymarket no-2026-cuts is already discounted; GE was $263 during peak recession fears, now $368 in realized soft landing—trade has worked, time to harvest
| Bollinger Middle (20 SMA) | 358.93 | bullish |
| Bollinger Upper | 383.73 | neutral |
| Bollinger Lower | 334.13 | neutral |
| ATR | 9.93 | neutral |
| Volume | 2,269,000 | neutral |
Support: 358.93 · 353.48 · 334.13 | Resistance: 383.73 · 384.51
GE Aerospace technical analysis shows the stock in a well-established uptrend with all major moving averages (50 SMA $353.48, 200 SMA $316.97) rising and price above them. The recent pullback from $384.51 (Aug 5) to $368.06 represents a ~4.4% decline that found support with low volume, indicating a healthy cool-down rather than distribution. Key resistance at $383.73-$384.51 (Bollinger upper/swing high), with critical support at $353.48 (50 SMA) and $334.13 (lower Bollinger). MACD momentum has compressed from 16.63 to 5.61 but remains above signal line, preserving bullish bias. The setup favors eventual upside breakout given contracting volatility (ATR declining) and intact multi-timeframe structure.
Market Cap
$381.89B
Shares Outstanding (Diluted)
1.047B
Implied Share Price
~$367
P/E (TTM)
43.45x
Forward P/E
40.56x
PEG Ratio
5.39
Price / Book
21.65x
Dividend Yield
0.51%
Beta
1.366
52-Week High
$388.84
52-Week Low
$263.80
50-Day Moving Average
$352.79
200-Day Moving Average
$317.24
Q2 2026 Revenue
$13.348B
Q2 2026 Gross Profit
$4.151B
Q2 2026 Operating Income
$2.560B
Q2 2026 EBITDA
$3.329B
Q2 2026 Net Income
$2.370B
Q2 2026 Diluted EPS
$2.26
Q2 2026 Gross Margin
31.1%
TTM Revenue
$50.64B
TTM Net Income
$8.96B
TTM EBITDA
$11.48B
TTM Gross Margin
31.1%
TTM Operating Margin
20.6%
TTM Net Margin
17.7%
TTM ROE
48.2%
TTM ROA
5.1%
TTM EBITDA Margin
22.7%
Total Assets
$127.67B
Total Debt
$19.16B
Net Debt
$9.81B
Cash & Equivalents
$9.35B
Stockholders' Equity
$17.64B
Inventory
$12.44B
Receivables
$15.12B
Current Ratio
0.98x
Goodwill & Intangibles
$13.04B
Debt/Equity Ratio
113.225
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.85x
Q2 2026 Operating Cash Flow
$3.195B
Q2 2026 Capital Expenditure
$0.335B
Q2 2026 Free Cash Flow
$2.860B
Q2 2026 Share Repurchases
$2.128B
Q2 2026 Dividends Paid
$0.492B
TTM Free Cash Flow
$6.59B
FCF Conversion
94%+
Annual Buyback Run Rate
~$8.5B
Treasury Stock
$91.5B
Q2 2026 Diluted Shares
1.047B
Available-For-Sale Securities
$37.9B
Strengths
Concerns
GE Aerospace is a high-quality, cash-generative aerospace leader with exceptional fundamentals: Q2 2026 revenue of $13.35B (+21.1% YoY), ROE of 48.2%, and TTM FCF of $6.59B with 94%+ conversion. The company is aggressively returning capital via buybacks (~$8.5B annually) while maintaining strong profitability margins. However, the stock trades at premium multiples (P/E 43.45x, PEG 5.39) with high beta (1.37), warranting a HOLD for new buyers while existing holders benefit from the secular aerospace tailwind — buyers should wait for pullbacks to the 200-DMA (~$317) or P/E compression toward 35x.
Macro: Polymarket-implied: No Fed rate cuts in 2026 priced at 86% (volume $7.16M, -3.1pp w/w); 6+ cuts at 0%. US recession by end-2026 at 8% (-1.0pp w/w). July CPI market-implied annualized headline: 3.3–3.4%; 72% probability of ≥0.1% MoM rise, 26% chance of flat print. US equities faded two consecutive sessions into Tuesday CPI release. Oil rallied on US-Iran deal doubts, lifting energy/TSX while pressuring growth sectors. Consumer spending resilient despite uncertainty, supporting commercial aerospace demand thesis. A 'soft-landing + no cuts' regime historically supports high-quality industrials with backlogs and pricing power.