When: Positive MACD histogram on 50 SMA retest with constructive volume

Then: Confirm re-entry alongside price action

15-25% tactical trim; stop at 101.35 on remainder; no addition until confirmed daily close above 10 EMA at 117.38 with positive MACD histogram, or post-earnings breakout above 142.35 on heavy volume; position size capped at 50% of normal high-conviction weight

• MACD histogram went from positive 3.31 to negative 0.04 over eight sessions—momentum cooling, not trend broken
• Stock is 42% above the 200 SMA at 81.57 and 13% above the 50 SMA at 101.35
• 50 SMA rising sharply from 90.09 in early August to 101.35 today, climbing approximately $1.50 per session
• Lower Bollinger Band at 93 is theoretical drawdown level, not base rate
• Q2 2026 revenue grew 25.4% year over year; gross margins expanded 1,290 basis points
• Normalized EBITDA was $5.46 billion; liquidity at $29.7 billion; net debt declining with deleveraging trend intact
• Headline net income distorted by $12.48 billion securities-related writedown; operating business performing well
• Forward earnings expected to flip from negative 2.12 to positive 2.06; forward P/E 56x; PEG ratio 1.36
• 10 EMA at 117.38 as re-engagement trigger with positive MACD confirmation
• Post-earnings breakout above 142.35 on heavy volume as alternative re-engagement level
• Beta of 2.23 and ATR of 5.99 indicate elevated volatility warranting reduced position sizing

→ vs aggressive: MACD cross represents momentum cooling, not trend break; treating one marginally negative histogram print (negative 0.04) as definitive signal is false precision

→ vs aggressive: 200 SMA at 81.57 and lower Bollinger at 93 are theoretical drawdown levels, not base rates; comparing max drawdown to measured 10-14% upside is rhetorical, not probabilistic

→ vs aggressive: 50 SMA retest framing assumes drawdown is predetermined; if 50 SMA holds, position does not need to realize losses

→ vs aggressive: Selling 30-50% gives up optionality on a position sitting 42% above its 200 SMA in structurally bullish tape

→ vs aggressive: 56x forward P/E is not 'perfection pricing'—assumes no margin expansion, no earnings beat, no execution credibility; PEG of 1.36 is not extreme

→ vs neutral: Low confidence in sentiment data means size smaller, not larger; silence is not directional in either direction

TRIM 25-35% OF POSITION, RETAIN HALF-SIZE WITH STOP AT 50 SMA (101.35), RE-ENTER ON CONFIRMED 50 SMA RETEST WITH POSITIVE MACD MOMENTUM

• MACD histogram decayed from +3.31 to -0.04 in 8 sessions; cross is one day old at essentially zero, not capitulation level
• 50 SMA at 101.35 represents ~13% drawdown from current levels; break opens lower Bollinger at 93 and 200 SMA at 81.57
• Risk-reward asymmetry: 13-30% downside vs 10-14% upside is unfavorable but 200 SMA target is tail scenario, not base case
• 50 SMA rising from 90.09 in early August to 101.35 today; 200 SMA steepening; structural uptrend intact
• Q2 2026 revenue up 25.4% YoY, gross margins expanding 1,290 basis points, normalized EBITDA 5.46 billion, liquidity 29.7 billion
• 56x forward P/E assumes zero margin expansion, zero execution credibility, zero earnings beat—bearish given improving fundamentals
• Macro headwinds: Fed on hold with elevated yields, narrow Nasdaq AI leadership, no INTC-specific catalyst; technicals more relevant
• Half-size retained position justified by beta of 2.23 and ATR of 5.99; 15-25% trim insufficient given documented asymmetry
• Re-entry on 50 SMA retest preferred over conservative's stricter 10 EMA reclaim; 50 SMA is higher-conviction support level
• Stock still 42% above rising 200 SMA with inflecting fundamentals; aggressive bear case is rhetorical not probabilistic

→ vs aggressive: Treats marginal one-day MACD cross as definitive trend break rather than caution signal; stock remains 42% above rising 200 SMA with improving fundamentals, making 30% drawdown to 81.57 a tail scenario not base case

→ vs conservative: 15-25% trim is insufficient given 13-30% downside risk; also underestimates MACD signal significance as mere non-event, mirroring aggressive's error in opposite direction