When: >$360 close + volume >1.3M + MACD positive cross + RSI >50

Then: Full position re-entry

When: Close <$311 (April pivot zone) on volume >1.5M

Then: Full Sell/Exit — structural floor broken

SELL; move to underweight versus benchmark; trim toward 50% end of the 25-50% range; re-entry only after 5-10 trading days of confirmed closes above 200 SMA at $353.46; treat $355 stop loss as re-entry trigger, not protective stop

• Stock fell from $393.48 to $332.34 in six weeks (-15.5% drawdown) with 8 sessions accelerating lower on volume nearly doubled from baseline
• Multiple intraday pierces of lower Bollinger Band; expanding negative MACD histogram; 200-day SMA broken to downside
• RSI pinned at 20.95 with no curl; MACD histogram at -1.83 and expanding; all four moving averages are resistance; 10 EMA sloping down hard
• VWMA rolled from $390 to $347 in five weeks; cumulative distribution signature is unmistakable
• 30-year Treasury at highest level since 2002; mortgage rates touched 7.58%; market pricing 97% probability of zero Fed cuts in 2026
• Iran-Israel ceasefire probabilities declining week over week (dropping -5.5pp to -8pp across near-term windows); Boeing dropped -6.9% and dragged entire A&D complex down
• GD TTM free cash flow is $4.4 billion; net debt of $3.2B against $4.3B cash; dividend raised for 27 consecutive years; multi-year backlog across Stryker, Virginia-class, PAC-3 MSE
• Strong fundamentals do not protect stock from drawdown driven by multiple compression; this is a capital preservation framing, not a tactical SELL (which implies near-term re-entry thesis)
• RSI at 20.95 with no upward curl and MACD histogram still expanding negative is a momentum continuation signature, not a reversal setup
• Historical data on Bollinger Band lower-band pierces shows ~5% occurrence rate; subsequent bounce is statistically small (1-5 day reflexive move, not regime change)
• Re-entry protocol requires minimum of 5-10 trading days of confirmed closes above 200 SMA before reload; single-day reclaims of broken support often fail on second or third test
• Listed $355 stop loss on SELL recommendation is actually a buy stop above current price (re-entry trigger), not a protective stop; any move toward $355 is first observation zone, not a reason to buy

→ vs aggressive: Framing this as tactical SELL implies near-term re-entry thesis; capital preservation framing suggests potentially staying out longer than technicals suggest, as macro (not chart) is the dominant risk variable

→ vs aggressive: The 50% trim target is preferred over 25% end of range given elevated sector correlation, rising geopolitical tail risk, and discount rate regime moving against us

→ vs aggressive: Aggressive analyst glossed over the $355 stop loss distinction — it is a buy stop (re-entry trigger), not a protective stop, and the committee must interpret it as such

→ vs neutral: HOLD with no triggers and no timeline is not prudent — it is inertia that compounds passive drawdowns, forces selling later at worse prices, and erodes risk management credibility

Trim 30-40% of GD exposure, maintain core position, set hard stop below $311, re-enter on single-session reclaim of 200 SMA at $353.46 with RSI curl above 35

• Neutral view: both aggressive and conservative camps are ~70% correct and 30% wrong
• Current RSI at 20.95 with Bollinger Band lower-band pierce indicates price has overshot fundamentals on a $90 billion defense prime with $4.4B TTM free cash flow, 1.91% dividend yield, and deleveraging balance sheet
• Aggressive analyst's dismissal of fundamentals as 'priced in' is intellectually lazy; 2026 highs were $393.48, current $332.34 represents $61 swing with significant multiple compression component, not earnings deterioration
• Q2 2026 revenue up 8.1% YoY, TTM free cash flow $4.4B, cash $4.3B vs net debt $3.2B, backlog at all-time high
• Conservative 2022 drawdown comparison is flawed; GD trades at 17.85x forward earnings vs 30+ multiples in 2022, with 0.32 beta and 1.91% yield
• April 2026 pivot low was $311-$312 with confirmed high-volume gap-up reversal on 3.59 million shares—structural support zone
• Rising Iran-Israel tail risk is BACKWARDS for GD; ceasefire breakdown benefits missile defense, naval, and ground systems—exactly GD's portfolio (PAC-3 MSE, THAAD interceptors, August 31 framework agreements)
• Boeing -6.9% Monday selloff was one-day liquidity event, not structural repricing
• Conservative 50% trim overcorrects; at RSI 20.95 the expected value difference vs 35% trim is much smaller than conservative camp admits due to non-trivial reflexive bounce probability
• Balanced plan: trim 30-40% to reduce technical risk and capture drawdown, maintain core position for structural thesis, hard stop below $311, re-entry on single-session 200 SMA reclaim with momentum curl (not 5-10 day multi-day confirmation requirement)

→ vs aggressive: Framing momentum as law of physics rather than tendency; 'has price exhausted selling impulse?' is different question than 'has indicator flipped bullish?'

→ vs aggressive: Claim that 'fundamentals are priced in' at a stock down 15.5% in six weeks is momentum-speak, not analysis; multiple compression cycles end and fundamentals create eventual price destination

→ vs aggressive: Full exit with re-entry on technical confirmation has ~40% probability of buying back higher

→ vs conservative: 2022 drawdown comparison is structurally flawed; 2022 quality compounders had 30+ multiples, low yields, were vehicles for multiple expansion—GD today has 17.85x forward multiple, 1.91% yield, 0.32 beta, and record backlog

→ vs conservative: Path to $300 requires breaking April pivot zone at $311-$312 with sustained distribution; substituting fear for data

→ vs conservative: Rising Iran-Israel tail risk as bearish catalyst is backwards—company-specific fundamental risk improves with geopolitical escalation, only market-wide risk-off liquidity events are real concern

→ vs conservative: 50% trim overcorrects; doubles realized downside protection but also doubles opportunity cost of wrong timing; expected value difference at RSI 20.95 is smaller than admitted due to non-trivial bounce probability

→ vs conservative: 5-to-10 day confirmation requirement before adding back punishes alpha from sharp mean reversion; single-session reclaim with volume and RSI curl above 35 is sufficient