When: EPS miss or weak forward guidance

Then: Trim remainder, recognize thesis needs rebuild

Trim 50 to 100 percent of overweight exposure in the 358-363 zone; do not initiate new longs; reassess post-earnings with tighter risk parameters

• 42 percent rally from 252 to 358 into a binary August 25th catalyst creates asymmetric risk regardless of strong underlying fundamentals
• Options market pricing floor below 252 52-week low signals institutional pricing of meaningful downside risk, not hedged long exposure
• Stock trading 21 percent below falling 200-day moving average represents resistance, not support; structural downtrend has not reversed
• 30-year yields at 19-year highs are structural headwinds for long-duration software assets, not cyclical noise; 65 percent probability of zero Fed cuts in 2026 removes liquidity catalyst
• Forward P/E of 12.8 may not be cheap if earnings expectations are wrong; multiple expansion unlikely without rate relief
• IRS Direct File is unresolved structural threat to 25-plus percent of revenue, not fully priced old news
• Risk-reward has compressed: 42 percent of the rally has been captured, next 10 to 15 percent carries materially more risk than the last 30 percent did

→ vs aggressive: The 30 percent run off lows is 'mean reversion starting' is a misunderstanding—42 percent rally into a 7-day binary catalyst is the setup where disappointment punishes you regardless of business quality

→ vs aggressive: Put buying signals hedged longs is incorrect—buying puts that imply downside to single-stock drawdown breaking the 52-week range is institutional pricing of meaningful risk, not simple long hedging

→ vs aggressive: Macro being 'already priced in' ignores structural nature of 30-year yields at 19-year highs as discount rate headwinds for software multiples; 'cyclical extreme not new normal' is hope, not analysis

→ vs aggressive: IRS Direct File is 'old news' is wrong—unresolved structural threats to 25-plus percent of revenue are NOT fully priced until actual revenue impact or clearer guidance is provided

→ vs aggressive: Risk-reward of 6-8 percent downside versus 20-40 percent upside ignores sequence risk of binary event; prudent approach is to lock in gains and preserve optionality for post-event entry

Trim 25-40% of overweight into 358-363; sell cash-secured puts at 290-310 for 14-16% annualized premium; do not initiate new longs; define post-earnings triggers; core position should withstand 15-20% drawdown

• INTU is a generational compounder at 12.8x forward P/E with PEG of 0.90
• Deferred revenue surge from $1.24 billion to $8.10 billion signals strong underlying business
• 31% EPS expansion last year and accelerating revenue growth are real fundamentals
• 50 SMA at 294 represents 16% downside from current levels (not 6-8% as aggressive claims)
• Options market pricing floor below 252 52-week low indicates institutional tail-risk concern, not casual hedging
• 30-year yields at 19-year highs create dynamic discount rate pressure on software multiples
• 85% probability of zero Fed cuts in 2026 is priced into today's price, limiting multiple expansion
• Stock is 21% below a falling 200 SMA, indicating structural downtrend
• IRS Direct File threat remains an unresolved structural risk to major revenue
• Recommended trim of 25-40% (not conservative's 50-100%) captures gains without abandoning thesis
• Sell cash-secured puts at 290-310 strikes yielding 14-16% annualized premium for new capital
• 400 level is invalidation signal, not a stop-loss level
• ATR is 15 with elevated implied vol creates premium-harvesting opportunity
• Core position should withstand 15-20% drawdown without forcing sell decision
• Post-earnings triggers: Beat/raise = hold or add; In-line = reassess; Miss = trim remainder

→ vs aggressive: Risk-reward claim of 6-8% downside is incorrect—50 SMA at 294 represents 16% downside from current levels

→ vs aggressive: Claims downside is 'capped by VWMA and 50 SMA support' but options-implied floor below 252 proves thesis mathematically wrong

→ vs aggressive: Calling yields 'already priced in' is circular—discount rate is dynamic, not static; further yield compression compresses multiples regardless

→ vs aggressive: Options market buying deep OTM puts at high implied vol signals institutional tail-risk hedging, not casual position protection

→ vs aggressive: Adding 7 days before binary catalyst when implied vol is elevated is poor timing; wait for better entry

→ vs conservative: Recommending underweight (50-100% trim) is overly aggressive directional call on name with intact fundamentals

→ vs conservative: Trade structure is contradictory—distributing at 358 with stop at 400 doesn't make sense; short structure risks 42 to make 8-10 (4:1 against)

→ vs conservative: Framing it as protecting capital when fundamentals haven't deteriorated is overcorrecting—trimming due to technicals, not thesis break

→ vs conservative: Dismissing software-to-capital rotation as single-day reversal ignores that rotation themes can persist for weeks with fundamental catalysts