When: Price above $290

Then: No additions; existing position only

HOLD; Do not add above 290; tier entries of 25% at 284 (RSI must be below 65) and 25% at 271 (50 SMA must confirm upturn); hard exit on close below 271; maximum portfolio exposure capped at 4%

• TTM P/E of 45x with 52-week high at 334 versus current price of 297; execution risk makes multiple expansion asymmetric
• Gross margin structural reset to 65%+ is premature; 61.4% in Q2 2026 may be the new operating range for 2-3 years given heavy depreciation from new fabs in ramp mode
• Technical setup is overbought: RSI at 72.37 is highest in visible window, upper Bollinger Band at 297.46 tagged intraday and faded, ATR compressed to 7.78, 10 EMA is 12.7 points below price
• Macro headwinds are real: 10Y just hit 2002 highs, mortgage rates at 7.58%, consumer discretionary rolling over as leading indicator for TXN's analog book
• TXN has minimal direct AI exposure, making it a structural laggard within semiconductors; exposed on both sides if AI trade rolls over
• Capex running at 4.5 billion annually against FCF of 2.6 billion and dividend payout of 5 billion constrains capital return
• Risk/reward: Would rather miss 5% upside than absorb 15% drawdown in current environment

→ vs aggressive: Forward P/E of 28x is not independently credible; sell-side estimates have structural incentive to be optimistic, and the 62% EPS expansion requires revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and operating leverage all succeeding simultaneously

→ vs aggressive: 300mm fabs in Sherman, Richardson, and Lehi carry massive depreciation loads, run at low utilization in early years, and have maturing yields; even at full utilization, depreciation per wafer is heavier than 2021 levels

→ vs aggressive: Flattening 50 SMA is a lagging indicator of trend exhaustion, not acceleration; ATR compression with tight daily ranges near highs is classic late-stage move before pivot

→ vs aggressive: 6% recession probability is a point-in-time reading that can reprice violently when data breaks; September jobs miss and housing data are warning signals

→ vs aggressive: Adding 25-50% at 297 with RSI at 72 creates blended cost basis around 290 with no invalidation point; a 'we'll see' framework that risks turning disciplined positions into capital traps

HOLD existing position; add on pullbacks to $284-$286 (first) or $275-$278 (second) with RSI below 65; do not add above $290; hard stop at $271 close; trim 15-25% near $305-$310; cap at 5% portfolio; halve position if 10Y breaks above 4.75%

• HOLD is correct — stock trades at roughly fair value (~35x current earnings, 28x forward P/E) with no margin of safety at $297 after 95% run from lows
• TTM P/E of 45x is anchored to cyclical trough; Q2 printed $2.14 against TTM of $6.57 (annualized run rate above $8.50)
• Forward P/E of 28x is reasonable for 35% ROE compounder with 29-year dividend growth record; 1.05 PEG is fair value, not stretched
• Consensus 62% EPS expansion is NOT conservative floor — sell-side estimates are systematically optimistic in hot cyclical recoveries
• Gross margin working assumption: 62-64% realistic 2027 operating range (not 57% trough, not 71% peak)
• September 18 breakout at ~$266 already worked; stock is now 13% above breakout at $297 with easy money made
• Technical report shows 35% probability of pullback to 10 EMA/50 SMA, only 55% to bullish continuation — coin-flip with edge, not high-conviction momentum
• RSI at 72 with upper Bollinger Band tagged signals overbought near-term conditions
• 50 SMA is in transition (flattening from ~$300 to ~$271), not exhaustion — first sign of medium-term trend exhaustion reversing
• 10Y just hit 2002 highs — moving target, not static; resilience is not immunity from yield regime headwinds
• 6% recession probability is market consensus; overriding requires a specific recession call not made by conservative analyst
• Macro is largely priced in but tail risk (further yield spike) warrants circuit breaker at 10Y above 4.75%
• Trader's existing tier entry at $284 and $271 is on right track but $271 is invalidation, not add zone
• Profit-taking at $305-$310 target zone (trim 15-25% of position) is a real gap in both aggressive and conservative analyses
• Neither 25-50% addition at $297 with stop at $278 (aggressive) nor waiting for 50 SMA confirmation (conservative) represents disciplined risk management

→ vs aggressive: Adding 25-50% at $297 is reckless — buying overbought RSI at upper Bollinger Band with no margin of safety into hostile yield regime for cyclicals; that's 'aggressive with hope,' not discipline

→ vs aggressive: Saying market is 'pricing in skepticism' rather than perfection is self-serving; market is pricing in 62% EPS consensus which is not conservative floor — sell-side estimates are systematically optimistic in cyclical recoveries

→ vs aggressive: Treating September 18 breakout as green light to chase ignores the stock is already 13% above that level; breakout confirmed what already happened, not what comes next

→ vs conservative: Waiting for 50 SMA confirmation before any add is too slow — demanding a trend failure to add is backwards from how confirmed breakouts should be traded

→ vs conservative: Framing flattening 50 SMA as 'lagging indicator that recent run is exhausting' is wrong — flattening after decline is first sign selling pressure is exhausting, not a top signal

→ vs conservative: Treating $271 as an add zone confuses entry point with stop loss; $271 is the invalidation point for the breakout, not the add zone

→ vs conservative: Position cap at 4% is too restrictive for a 35% ROE compounder with 29-year dividend growth record; 5% is more appropriate given quality

→ vs conservative: Being too rigid on macro — 6% recession probability is market pricing; tail risk should be hedged via circuit breaker, not cash sitting

→ vs conservative: Calling 61.4% gross margin the 'structural ceiling' is wrong — it's a recovery number that can expand with utilization; but also wrong to call it stepping stone to 65%+ in next 24 months