When: Confirmed breakout above $94.49 with rising volume

Then: Add 1/3–1/2 of intended new capital

When: Pullback to $91.38–$91.78 Bollinger midline zone

Then: Add 1/3–1/2 of intended new capital

When: Flush to $88.67 or breakout retest

Then: Deploy remaining dry powder

HOLD with defensive income sizing; wait for pullback to 88.67-91.78 zone or golden cross confirmation above 94.49 before adding

• Price run of ~12% in six weeks (83.21 to 94.13) with RSI at 75 on the high now 62; bearish divergence in place
• September 1 reversal candle opened at 95.41, closed near lows on 18.84 million shares — heaviest volume in the entire period — suggesting distribution, not shakeout
• MACD rolled from August 24 peak of 2.61 to 1.64; histogram went negative on latest session
• ATR expanded from 1.85 in June to 2.27 today, meaning normal noise is now wider
• Forward P/E of 14.55 embeds ~70% earnings jump assumption; trailing P/E is 24.96 — compression risk of 15-20% if guidance gets walked back
• Cornerstone Robotics deal at $700 million for ex-U.S. distribution rights adds to $52.7B goodwill, -$3.27B tangible book value, and $26B net debt; integration/regulatory/currency/execution risks on top of Hugo ramp
• 50 SMA stop reference at 86.45 gives $6.65 or ~7.1% risk per share; pullback targets are 91.38 (Bollinger middle band) or 88.67 (200 SMA)
• Defensive rotation tailwind can reverse quickly if rate expectations shift; current recession probability priced at 7%
• Conservative position: 0.57 beta, 3.12% dividend yield, defensive income sizing appropriate for confirmed but still-developing operating story

→ vs aggressive: Relabeling bearish RSI divergence and negative MACD histogram as 'digestion' ignores that price has run 12% in six weeks with RSI at 75 on the high and the histogram already negative — this is distribution, not shakeout, printed on the heaviest volume in the period

HOLD with tiered, event-driven add plan: maintain existing position at defensive income sizing, collect 3.12% dividend, keep stop at 86.45, add one-third starter position on golden cross confirmation (expected within one week), add another one-third to one-half on either breakout above 94.49 on rising volume OR pullback to 91.38-91.78 zone, reserve remaining dry powder for deeper flush to 88.67 or retest after breakout above 94.49.

• Revenue accelerating from mid-single-digits to 8.4% year-over-year; Cardiac ablation at 29.5% YoY; FY27 guidance raised; Cornerstone Robotics deal as real optionality
• Sep 1 candle: 18.84 million shares traded on $95.41 high closing near lows of day interpreted as distribution, not profit-taking
• Forward estimate of $6.40 represents upside case requiring Q2-Q4 FY27 all in-line or better plus most of FY28 without supply chain, regulatory, or FX surprises
• Beta of 0.57 and 3.12% dividend yield provides payment for waiting with defensive income sizing
• Stop level at 86.45 anchored to 50 SMA with hard close-based invalidation
• Key technical levels: 94.49 (resistance/breakout confirmation), 91.38-91.78 (pullback add zone), 88.67 (conservative fallback zone)
• Golden cross (50 SMA crossing above 200 SMA) expected within one week as structural confirmation trigger
• Two of three sub-segments printed acceleration; management raised guidance while raising the bar; net debt de-leveraging organically suggests estimates more likely to creep higher
• Conservative fallback buy zone at 88.67 to 91.78 may never materialize if MDT breaks out above 94.49 on rising volume with defensive rotation extending into Q2 prints

→ vs aggressive: Sep 1 candle of 18.84M shares on $95.41 high closing near lows is distribution, not profit-taking; heavy sellers used catalyst bid to exit while notes and flows pointed in opposite directions

→ vs aggressive: Forward P/E at $6.40 is an upside case requiring all quarters to land in-line or better through FY28; treating this as base case and sizing for further upside makes the asymmetric payoff symmetric at best

→ vs conservative: Fallback buy zone at 88.67 to 91.78 may never materialize if golden cross confirms and defensive rotation extends; 'wait for confirmation' is not safer than 'act on confirmation,' just slower with same upside exposure

→ vs conservative: Forward P/E framing is too symmetric in the other direction; ignoring that two of three sub-segments printed acceleration and management raised guidance while raising the bar suggests estimates more likely to creep higher than compress