When: Confirmed close >$324 (50 SMA) with rising volume >5M AND MACD bullish cross AND RSI >50

Then: Scale to intended position

When: Close <$252 with visible momentum exhaustion (RSI bullish divergence, MACD histogram compressing, declining volume on selling, hammer/engulfing candle) AND Q1 FY27 print that does not confirm bear case (revenue >10%, EPS >$1.50-1.80, reaffirmed FY27 customer-growth trajectory, stabilizing deferred revenue)

Then: Re-engage per fundamental confirmation

Wait for trend confirmation before deploying capital; specifically waiting for 50 SMA reclaim with positive MACD histogram, or higher low at 265 with RSI support at 50; Tranche 1 stop would be at 250 (11 percent below entry of 282); Tranche 1 represents 40 percent of target position with 4.4 percent portfolio-level loss if stopped out

• Buybacks are mechanical capital allocation, not price floors — INTU bought at $689 and $282 equally without price sensitivity
• Multiple compression from 30x to 10x forward earnings reflects forward-looking market concern about AI disrupting subscription software franchises
• Q1 FY27 has 'elevated expectations' per the trader's own plan — not the low-expectations setup aggressive analyst claims
• 200-day moving average at 393 is declining $2 per week — no confirmed trend change, current rally is 'dead cat bounce' not reversal
• 4-to-1 risk-reward is selective framing: comparing worst-case 11 percent downside to best-case 60 percent upside targets
• Accenture IT services model is categorically different from INTU subscription software; signals do not transfer
• Sustained higher-rate regime historically causes multi-quarter multiple compression in long-duration equities (Cisco, Netflix precedents)
• Neutral sentiment with zero retail/institutional commentary in past week suggests market has moved on from INTU
• Q1 FY27 earnings gap risk: INTU trades 50-70 cents wide with ATR of 13; 6-8 percent miss could gap through 250 stop entirely
• 10-year yield at highest since 2002 with Polymarket pricing 97 percent odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026 — duration risk not finished repricing
• Conservative entry triggers: 50 SMA reclaim with positive MACD histogram OR higher low at 265 with RSI support at 50

→ vs aggressive: Buyback support is not a price floor — management was buying at $689 and $282 without price discretion; program may freeze if guidance disappoints

→ vs aggressive: Multiple compression vs fundamental decay distinction is wrong — market prices forward trajectory, not current fundamentals; Q3 FY26 is in rearview mirror while market stares at Q1 FY27

→ vs aggressive: Q1 expectations are 'elevated' per the trader's own plan, not low — aggressive analyst's strawman contradicts the stated setup

→ vs aggressive: Risk-reward 4-to-1 is selective framing — uses best-case 60 percent upside target (451) against worst-case 11 percent downside; not asymmetric, it's motivated reasoning

→ vs aggressive: Tranche 1 alone carries 4.4 percent portfolio-level loss if stopped; not 'disciplined' in isolation given macro duration risk environment

→ vs aggressive: Accenture signal is a category error — IT services business model is fundamentally different from INTU subscription software; no inference transfer possible

→ vs aggressive: Rate compression is not finished — no rule that multiple compression happens in single move; Cisco and Netflix precedents show sustained multi-quarter de-rating in higher-rate regimes

→ vs aggressive: Dry powder argument contradicts action thesis — if 60 percent reserve is good risk management, why not 100 percent until trend confirms?

→ vs aggressive: Neutral sentiment is a warning signal, not a non-event — zero retail or institutional commentary on a $500+ stock 18 months ago means market has moved on

→ vs aggressive: Gap risk into Q1 earnings negates stop-loss discipline — INTU trades 50-70 cents wide with ATR 13; elevated expectations into binary catalyst means 6-8 percent miss gaps through 250 stop

Disciplined tranche framework: Tranche 1 at 25% (not 40%) deployed near $282, stop at $250, with additional conditions—RSI holding above 35 for 3-5 days and price holding $272-$275 zone to establish a higher low above $268. Tranche 2 and 3 conditions unchanged from original plan. Reject both the aggressive full deployment into Q1 FY27 print and the conservative wait for 50-SMA reclaim at $323.

• Fundamentals are compelling: 81% gross margins, 23% ROE, 10% capital return yield, forward P/E below S&P 500
• Buyback demand is real—genuine demand absorbing supply weekly at current levels
• Q3 FY26 was a strong print; deferred revenue balance provides visibility into tax season
• Setup is NOT a confirmed bottom—it is a bounce from RSI of 27 after a 59% drawdown; coiled springs resolve directionally, not always up
• MACD is negative and expanding—histogram widened from roughly -1 to -3 over several weeks, indicating downside momentum accelerating, not fading
• Gap risk into Q1 FY27 (mid-November) is the strongest risk: 6-8% post-earnings decline on guidance could gap through $250 stop
• Risk-reward framing of 4-to-1 is cherry-picked—uses most optimistic upside and most pessimistic downside endpoints
• Stop-losses don't work as expected around binary catalysts—realistic downside includes opening down 4% and gapping through the planned stop
• 200-SMA declining at $2/week is the signature of sustained de-rating, not a price floor
• Absence of Reddit chatter and quiet tape could indicate institutional accumulation, not just bearish sentiment

→ vs aggressive: Calling setup a 'coiled spring' and 'capitulation signature' is storytelling, not analysis—the May 2026 capitulation from $400 to $300 had a similar oversold bounce and didn't hold

→ vs aggressive: Risk-reward of 4-to-1 is cherry-picked—uses most optimistic upside endpoint and most pessimistic downside endpoint; realistic downside includes gapping through the stop on guidance

→ vs aggressive: MACD interpretation is wrong—it's not 'already in the price' but rather signaling that the rate of decline is increasing and sellers are getting more aggressive

→ vs aggressive: Accenture analogy is a stretch—Accenture sells hours (consulting), INTU sells subscriptions with different cash flow profiles and sensitivities to AI, interest rates, and consumer cycles

→ vs conservative: Demanding 50-SMA reclaim at $323 requires 14% appreciation before deployment—that's paralysis dressed up as discipline; clean entries come after trend turns, missing the meat of the move

→ vs conservative: Stacking entry conditions tighter than 'a starting pitcher afraid to throw a strike'—RSI above 50, 50-SMA reclaim, higher low at $265 are not the same setup and may never coincide

→ vs conservative: Cisco and Netflix analogies are fundamentally different—those were growth deceleration stories; INTU is a recurring software franchise with 81% gross margins and advance payment model

→ vs conservative: Sentiment argument overstated—quiet tape could indicate institutional accumulation, not structural bearishness; quiet period between Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 is normal calendar behavior