When: Daily close above 50 SMA at $285 on >7M volume with MACD histogram contracting AND RSI>50

Then: Re-engage to Overweight

When: Q3 2026 earnings beat-and-raise with revenue >$5.4B, gross margin >60%, buyback re-acceleration >$100M

Then: Re-engage to Overweight

Maintain existing exposure without adding capital at current levels; wait for the 200 SMA to hold and price to reclaim the 10 EMA before adding

• Q2 2026 metrics: 13% sequential revenue growth, 750 basis points margin expansion, $2.19 billion in free cash flow
• Stock dropped 6.8% after the strong earnings beat—a market verdict, not a gift
• Trailing P/E of 39x; forward P/E of 24.3x requires EPS to nearly double from $6.58 to $10.65 consensus target
• Entry at $258.64, stop at $235 (9.1% downside risk to 200 SMA), fair value target $324.45 (25.4% upside)
• 200 SMA at $235 is the last line of defense for the long-term trend; if it breaks, drawdown accelerates
• Price below 10 EMA and 50 SMA, sitting at lower Bollinger Band with band expanding lower
• MACD at negative 6.50 with histogram still expanding to downside—no momentum reset
• RSI at 38.5 approaching oversold but no confirmation of reversal; no bullish divergence or higher low in price
• Fed probability of no cuts in 2026 priced at 89%; higher-for-longer rates hostile to high-multiple cyclicals
• Rising implied volatility signals market uncertainty, not directional opportunity
• Beta of 1.33 means TXN gets hit harder on relative basis during rate-hiking cycles
• Current ratio of 4.86x provides balance sheet strength but doesn't protect against multiple compression
• VICR competitive threat in AI power delivery is not noise; even modest share loss pressure can compress multiples
• Conservative view preserves capital, maintains optionality, and waits for confirmed trend reversal

→ vs aggressive: One strong quarter (Q2 2026) does not prove a cycle; the 6.8% post-earnings selloff is a market verdict, not a buying opportunity

→ vs aggressive: Forward P/E of 24.3x requires aggressive EPS doubling from $6.58 to $10.65; if Q3 misses the implied trajectory, 15-25% multiple compression occurs

→ vs aggressive: The 9.1% stop at $235 is not the real risk—if the 200 SMA breaks, drawdown accelerates significantly beyond that level

→ vs aggressive: Fair value of $324.45 is a model output, not a committed market price; price action ($258) suggests the good news may already be priced in

→ vs aggressive: Oversold conditions are not automatically bullish; price action shows a confirmed downtrend with no reversal confirmation—adding into this is guesswork, not conviction

→ vs aggressive: Rising IV means uncertainty, not directional opportunity; assuming the move is up is overconfidence that gets portfolios blown up

→ vs aggressive: Higher-for-longer rates are not a tailwind for high-beta cyclicals like TXN (beta 1.33)—empirical evidence shows defensive names outperform in hawkish environments

→ vs aggressive: VICR competitive threat in AI power delivery cannot be dismissed as noise; TXN's bull case depends on AI content expansion

HOLD with tiered scaling triggers and defined risk management—no addition at current 258, but prepared to add at specific technical levels; implement put hedge at 240 strike for 60-90 days; hard stop at 235 weekly close

• Q2 was a real inflection with 13% sequential revenue growth and 750 basis points of margin expansion
• CapEx rollover from 1.3 billion down to 514 million is genuinely structural
• TXN has 7 billion in liquid assets, 4.86 current ratio, 35% ROE, and 2.2 billion in quarterly free cash flow
• 2.1% dividend yield with growing cash flow makes TXN competitive with bonds, not inferior
• The 6.8% post-earnings drop is equally plausible as profit-taking after a 68.5% three-year run
• Trailing P/E looks expensive at cycle bottoms—that's how cycle bottoms work
• IV expansion with no directional skew signals binary outcomes, not directional conviction
• Tier 1 add trigger: RSI reclaims 50 with price closing above 10 EMA at 265.44 on above-average volume
• Tier 2 add trigger: price reclaims 50 SMA at 285 with successful retest
• Hedge: buy put protection at 240 strike for 60-90 days
• Hard regime stop: 235 on weekly close
• Trailing reference: 250 if price stays below for 5+ trading sessions, trim 50% of position
• Waiting for confirmed 10 EMA reclaim and 200 SMA retest typically means entering 8-12% higher

→ vs aggressive: The 3-to-1 reward to risk math has a critical flaw—200 SMA is a regime boundary, not just a number; downside on break is 20-30% not 9%, making it a 1.5-to-1 setup

→ vs aggressive: IV expansion with no directional skew signals the market sees binary outcomes, not directional conviction—surging IV is not evidence that longs are right

→ vs conservative: Calling the 6.8% drop a verdict by institutional capital is one interpretation equally plausible as profit-taking after a 68.5% three-year run

→ vs conservative: 39x trailing P/E is technically true but practically backwards—every cycle turn in semiconductors has looked expensive on trailing metrics

→ vs conservative: The discount rate argument cuts both ways—TXN's balance sheet strength (7B liquid, 4.86 current ratio, 35% ROE) makes it a bond proxy with growth, not a cyclical junk name

→ vs conservative: Wait for 200 SMA hold and 10 EMA reclaim sequence sounds prudent but in practice means entering 8-12% higher