| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Close above $319.47 with volume ≥1.3M | Add 25% position |
| Close above $320.83 with volume ≥1.5M | Add additional 25-50% position |
| Close back below $313.04 with volume | Reduce 25% of existing position |
| Close below $305.25 with volume | Full position exit |
FDX is at an inflection point where fundamental transformation (DRIVE program driving record EPS, 71.6% FCF growth, and balance sheet fortification) aligns with a coiled technical setup, creating an asymmetric opportunity before the breakout above the 50 SMA at $319.47.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| close_50_sma | 319.47 | neutral |
| close_200_sma | 277.77 | bullish |
| close_10_ema | 313.26 | bullish |
| macd | -0.85 | bullish |
| macd_signal | -1.67 | — |
| macd_histogram | +0.82 | bullish |
| rsi | 54.78 | bullish |
| bollinger_upper | 320.83 | — |
| bollinger_lower | 305.25 | — |
| bollinger_bandwidth | 15.58 | bullish |
| atr | 7.39 | — |
| volume | 878397 | bearish |
Support: 313.26 · 313.04 · 305.25 · 277.77 | Resistance: 320.83 · 319.47 · 325.4 · 337.48 · 344.08
FDX trades at a critical inflection, testing the 50 SMA (319.47) after a corrective pullback from the June peak (~344.08). The long-term uptrend remains firmly intact with price +14.7% above the rising 200 SMA (277.77). A fresh MACD bullish crossover fired around Aug 5 with histogram flipping positive (+0.82), while Bollinger Band bandwidth has compressed to 15.58 (61% narrower than June's 40.13), signaling a coiled breakout. RSI at 54.78 is mid-range with room to run, but breakout-day volume (878K) was light versus the ~1.3M average. Recommended action is HOLD for existing longs; new entries should wait for a confirmed daily close above 319.47 with volume ≥1.5M, or a pullback entry at retested support of 319.50.
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
Hold FDX with tiered re-engagement triggers pending technical resolution
The Hold is the right call because the evidence is genuinely mixed: real fundamental progress (revenue +7.7%, record EPS, FCF inflected, cash doubled) is offset by margin compression, restructuring acceleration, and balance sheet behavior suggesting defensive optionality rather than confident capital return. The technical setup is coiled but unconvincing on the breakout attempt—price below the flattening 50 SMA, light volume on the test, MACD crossover below zero. Valuation at PEG 1.31 and 14.7% above a rising 200 SMA is fair, not compelling. Both the bull and bear cases have legitimate points, which is the textbook condition for waiting for technical resolution before committing directional exposure.
When: Close below $310 with volume (distribution)
Then: Exit or reduce position
Balance sheet transformation creates financial firepower and optionality
↩ rebuts: “Bear focus on headline $43B debt without distinguishing operational capital leases”
· concedes: Headline debt of $43B is heavy (though $17.2B is operational capital leases); August 7 volume at 878K was light; Stock is near 52-week highs; Bear raised legitimate concerns on light breakout volume and 50 SMA overhead resistance; Recession probability, though low, is not zero
FDX's apparent inflection is built on CapEx cuts and balance sheet engineering rather than operational improvement, with restructuring charges accelerating, technicals showing distribution signals near 52-week highs, and a crowded soft-landing consensus creating asymmetric downside risk.
· concedes: OCF grew $1.89B — that's the operational component. Healthy but not heroic.; DRIVE charges are rising (bull's point, but bear argues trajectory is accelerating, not declining); Technical 200 SMA long-term trend is accelerating (bear acknowledges this is true); Some tariff complexity does create customs brokerage opportunities; RSI at 54.78 is neutral (not bearish in absolute terms)
→ vs conservative: The 'overextended' framing based on stock being 25% above the 200-DMA is backwards; being above a rising 200 SMA is a feature, not a warning sign of mean reversion
→ vs conservative: FCF quality argument is flawed; suppressed CapEx is still $3.8B of real infrastructure spending, and calling $5.1B FCF 'fake' because CapEx declined is like saying profits are fake because a company cut costs — that's the point of operational improvement
→ vs neutral: 'Wait for confirmation' approach on Bollinger squeeze with MACD crossover guarantees missing the move; by the time breakout is confirmed above $320.83, entry will be 10-15 points worse
→ vs neutral: 'MACD crossover below zero is weaker' is backwards; a crossover below zero when histogram flips from negative to positive is the first stage of a momentum regime change, and the strongest moves start here
→ vs neutral: Underweighting the macro tailwind: 8% recession odds, Fed on hold, equities at records, and tariff refund complexity favoring large integrators like FDX over smaller competitors
Market Cap
$75.37 billion
52-Week High
$345.37
52-Week Low
$177.28
50-Day Moving Avg
$320.40
200-Day Moving Avg
$276.82
Beta
1.36
PE (TTM)
17.18
Forward PE
15.43
PEG Ratio
1.31
Price/Book
2.42
Dividend Yield
1.54%
Book Value / Share
$131.86
Revenue FY2023
$90,155 million
Revenue FY2024
$87,693 million
Revenue FY2025
$87,926 million
Revenue FY2026
$94,720 million
Gross Profit FY2023
$19,166 million
Gross Profit FY2024
$18,952 million
Gross Profit FY2025
$18,995 million
Gross Profit FY2026
$20,622 million
Operating Income FY2023
$5,338 million
Operating Income FY2024
$6,298 million
Operating Income FY2025
$6,032 million
Operating Income FY2026
$6,623 million
Operating Margin FY2023
5.92%
Operating Margin FY2024
7.18%
Operating Margin FY2025
6.86%
Operating Margin FY2026
6.99%
EBITDA FY2023
$10,233 million
EBITDA FY2024
$10,868 million
EBITDA FY2025
$10,494 million
EBITDA FY2026
$11,132 million
Normalized EBITDA FY2026
$12.29 billion
Net Income FY2023
$3,972 million
Net Income FY2024
$4,331 million
Net Income FY2025
$4,092 million
Net Income FY2026
$4,433 million
Diluted EPS FY2023
$15.48
Diluted EPS FY2024
$17.21
Diluted EPS FY2025
$16.81
Diluted EPS FY2026
$18.55
EPS (TTM)
$18.54
Forward EPS
$20.64
Restructuring/M&A Charges FY2023
($309 million)
Restructuring/M&A Charges FY2024
($582 million)
Restructuring/M&A Charges FY2025
($794 million)
Restructuring/M&A Charges FY2026
($1,137 million)
Total Unusual Items FY2023
($426 million)
Total Unusual Items FY2024
($739 million)
Total Unusual Items FY2025
($815 million)
Total Unusual Items FY2026
($1,160 million)
Cost of Revenue FY2026
$74.1 billion
Operating Expenses FY2026
$14.0 billion
Interest Expense FY2023
$694 million
Interest Expense FY2026
$970 million
Gross Margin FY2023
21.3%
Gross Margin FY2026
21.8%
TTM Net Margin
4.68%
Total Assets FY2023
$87,143 million
Total Assets FY2024
$87,007 million
Total Assets FY2025
$87,627 million
Total Assets FY2026
$98,937 million
Cash & Equivalents FY2023
$6,856 million
Cash & Equivalents FY2024
$6,501 million
Cash & Equivalents FY2025
$5,502 million
Cash & Equivalents FY2026
$13,311 million
Total Debt FY2023
$38,332 million
Total Debt FY2024
$37,719 million
Total Debt FY2025
$37,416 million
Total Debt FY2026
$42,943 million
Long-Term Debt FY2023
$20,453 million
Long-Term Debt FY2024
$20,135 million
Long-Term Debt FY2025
$19,151 million
Long-Term Debt FY2026
$23,293 million
Capital Lease Obligations FY2023
$17,753 million
Capital Lease Obligations FY2024
$17,516 million
Capital Lease Obligations FY2025
$16,837 million
Capital Lease Obligations FY2026
$17,229 million
Stockholders' Equity FY2023
$26,088 million
Stockholders' Equity FY2024
$27,582 million
Stockholders' Equity FY2025
$28,074 million
Stockholders' Equity FY2026
$31,647 million
Net Debt FY2023
$13,723 million
Net Debt FY2024
$13,702 million
Net Debt FY2025
$15,077 million
Net Debt FY2026
$12,403 million
Working Capital FY2023
$5,024 million
Working Capital FY2024
$4,852 million
Working Capital FY2025
$2,975 million
Working Capital FY2026
$8,991 million
Current Ratio FY2026
1.475
Debt/Equity FY2026
1.36 (135.7%)
Gross PPE FY2026
$107.7 billion
Operating Cash Flow FY2023
$8,848 million
Operating Cash Flow FY2024
$8,312 million
Operating Cash Flow FY2025
$7,036 million
Operating Cash Flow FY2026
$8,925 million
Capital Expenditure FY2023
$6,174 million
Capital Expenditure FY2024
$5,176 million
Capital Expenditure FY2025
$4,055 million
Capital Expenditure FY2026
$3,809 million
Free Cash Flow FY2023
$2,674 million
Free Cash Flow FY2024
$3,136 million
Free Cash Flow FY2025
$2,981 million
Free Cash Flow FY2026
$5,116 million
FCF (TTM)
$5.66 billion
Dividends Paid FY2023
$1,177 million
Dividends Paid FY2024
$1,259 million
Dividends Paid FY2025
$1,339 million
Dividends Paid FY2026
$1,374 million
Share Repurchases FY2023
$1,500 million
Share Repurchases FY2024
$2,500 million
Share Repurchases FY2025
$3,017 million
Share Repurchases FY2026
$796 million
Net Debt Issuance FY2026
+3,982 million
Long-Term Debt Issued FY2026
$5.29 billion
End Cash Position FY2026
$13,311 million
ROE FY2026
14.85%
ROA FY2026
5.01%
Operating Margin FY2026 TTM
11.13%
Expected EPS Growth
11.3%
Revenue YoY Growth FY2026
7.7%
Net Income YoY Growth FY2026
8.3%
FCF YoY Growth FY2026
71.6%
Total Assets Change FY2026
13%
Strengths
Concerns
FedEx Corporation (FDX) delivered a strong FY2026 with record revenue of $94.72 billion (+7.7% YoY), record net income of $4.43 billion (+8.3%), and record diluted EPS of $18.55, marking an inflection after two years of stagnant growth around $87.9 billion. Free cash flow surged 71.6% YoY to $5.12 billion — the highest in four years — driven by CapEx discipline ($3.81B, down from $6.17B peak) and strong operating cash flow of $8.93B, while the cash balance doubled to $13.31 billion; however, total debt rose $5.5B to $42.94 billion and restructuring charges remain elevated at $1.16 billion. The company trades at a forward PE of 15.43 with an 11.3% expected EPS growth rate, supported by the DRIVE transformation program and margin expansion, though valuation appears to have priced in much of the optimism given the stock trades near 52-week highs and +25% above its 200-day moving average.