When: Daily close <$497.93 (lower Bollinger Band) on volume >4M

Then: Cut residual position by half

When: Daily close <$492.59 (200 SMA) on volume >4M

Then: Exit remainder entirely

HOLD full position with trailing stop at $497-$498; do not trim into 3% pullback

• Forward EPS of $22.19 is driven by equity portfolio mark-to-market volatility, not operating deterioration; Q2 2026 printed $11.91 quarterly EPS
• Trailing P/E of 12.66 is cheap for 32.6% operating margin, 22% net margin, 12% ROE, and fortress balance sheet
• $365 billion cash earns ~$18 billion/year (~$8.30/share) at current T-bill yields, contractual and immune to equity volatility
• Stock trades at 0.96x P/B; operating businesses and $365B cash valued below stated book value
• 200 SMA at $492.59 is rising; price 2.21% above; MACD in positive territory (0.87 vs signal 1.50); RSI neutral at 45.55
• Sep 18 volume spike (12.5M vs 4-5M normal) showed no follow-through selling on Sep 19-22, stabilizing price
• Polymarket data: 8% recession odds, 96% probability of zero cuts, 86% odds of 2026 rate hike - higher-for-longer is TAILWIND for BRK cash earnings
• Risk-reward: ~$10 downside to 200 SMA vs ~$34 upside to 52-week high of $537.74; ratio ~1-to-3.5 favoring longs
• Aggressive analyst's bearish news ratio claim is inverted: ~18 bullish vs 2 bearish headlines (10-to-1 bullish)
• Single Reddit post cited as bearish sentiment is a data void, not evidence of community-wide bearishness

→ vs aggressive: Forward EPS of $22.19 represents '44% earnings collapse' is misleading; the number reflects Apple/equity portfolio directionality, not operating performance - Q2 2026 was $11.91 (highest in years)

→ vs aggressive: 22.7x forward P/E cited as 'rich' ignores 12.66x trailing P/E; forward multiple elevated by analyst conservatively marking down portfolio volatility, not operating business deterioration

→ vs aggressive: Cash being 'priced in' argument contradicts forward earnings concern; at 0.96x P/B, market values operating assets and cash at a DISCOUNT to book - supports HIGHER multiple, not lower

→ vs aggressive: Succession risk is overplayed; Abel named successor years ago, Howard Buffett as chairman provides continuity, transition telegraphed for over a decade, stock up over past year

→ vs aggressive: Sep 18 distribution day volume (12.5M shares) showed no follow-through; alternative explanations include index reconstitution, options expiry, rebalancing - cannot assume institutional de-risking without evidence

→ vs aggressive: MACD crossing below signal line framed as breakdown when MACD remains in positive territory (0.87); histogram decay from August peak of 8.38 reflects momentum exhaustion, not downside initiation

→ vs aggressive: Higher-for-longer rate environment is a TAILWIND, not bearish; $365B cash earns more at elevated rates; insurance float reinvests at higher yields; 96% zero-cut probability strengthens cash earnings power

→ vs aggressive: Asymmetric setup inverted: $10 downside to 200 SMA vs $34+ upside to 52-week high = 1-to-3.5 risk-reward in favor of holders, not sellers

→ vs aggressive: Social media sentiment 'evidence' is ONE post on r/stocks across three subreddits in seven days - data void, not bearish signal

REDUCE EXPOSURE MODESTLY BY 10-15%; MAINTAIN CORE POSITION; STOP AT $492.59-$495; RE-ENTRY TRIGGER AT $505 (50 SMA) WITH VOLUME CONFIRMATION AND TWO CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS ABOVE

• Normalized operating earnings power estimated at $24-$28 per share, representing a 25-35% decline from TTM $39.76 (not 44% as aggressive claims, but not zero as conservative claims)
• Blended valuation suggests fair value of $390-$450 at 15x normalized earnings ($26-$30 midpoint) vs current $503, implying modest 5-10% overvaluation
• P/B below 1.0 may reflect market pricing lower expected returns on operating capital rather than mispricing of cash; 5% T-bill yield creates real opportunity cost of $365B cash hoard
• Succession narrative creates plausible 5-10% multiple compression risk over 6-12 months as market reprices without Buffett in the chair
• Sep 18 volume print (12.5M shares vs normal 4-5M) is ambiguous signal warranting attention but not confirming institutional distribution; no follow-through distribution observed
• Macro tailwind from higher-for-longer rates is real: $18B+ annual interest income on cash that grows if rates rise further; 96% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026 is ideal backdrop
• Technical setup has deteriorated but long-term trend intact at 200 SMA; risk-reward favors long side with stop at $492.59
• P/B below 1.0 means not paying premium for franchise; operating business producing strong cash flow

→ vs aggressive: EPS '44% collapse' framing is overstated; normalized earnings are $24-$28 not the $22.19 forward figure which includes mark-to-market portfolio noise

→ vs aggressive: Sep 18 volume (12.5M shares) is ambiguous signal, not definitive distribution; no follow-through after Sep 18 suggests alternative explanations (index reconstitution, options expiry) are valid

→ vs aggressive: Cash tailwind dismissal is wrong; T-bill yield on $365B is contractual, recurring, and immune to equity volatility; higher rates increase annual interest income

→ vs conservative: Forward PE framing understates risk; blended analysis shows stock is 5-10% overvalued on normalized earnings basis, not fairly valued

→ vs conservative: P/B below 1.0 discount is justified if market is rationally pricing inability to deploy capital at returns above cost of capital; not necessarily mispricing

→ vs conservative: Succession transition creates real narrative-based multiple compression risk (5-10%) that institutional and retail investors may price before operational deterioration occurs