The bear wins on the question that matters most: risk/reward asymmetry at $736. META's underlying business quality is elite — 28% revenue growth, 81.7% gross margin, 48% EBITDA margin, ~30% ROE, and forward P/E of 21x against 31% expected EPS growth (PEG ≈ 0.7) — but the stock has front-run its narrative with +36% in five weeks from $543 to $741. The technical setup is screaming caution: RSI 76, price pinned to upper Bollinger band, no golden cross confirmation, ATR expanding ~40% off the June low. Q2 fundamentals show FCF margin collapsed to ~3% from ~23% the prior quarter, capex surged +82% YoY and +58% sequentially, buybacks went to zero, and net debt increased ~4x in twelve months. The leverage trajectory is underappreciated. From $736, the math is brutal: ~8% upside to $796 target versus ~15–18% downside to $600–625 (50 SMA/200 SMA/Bollinger middle confluence). The bull's own add-zone at $680 is 7.5% below current. Underweight, not Sell, because the fundamental quality and PEG <1 don't support abandonment — but the technical setup, FCF collapse, leverage trajectory, and Fed hiking cycle create asymmetric downside over 4-8 weeks.

POSITION STRATEGY: Trim existing META exposure by approximately 25–33% into the current $736–757 zone. Do not exit the full position — structural thesis is intact, but entry timing is poor and asymmetry is unfavorable. Underweight implies position size should be roughly two-thirds of benchmark weight. Retained core should be sized to survive a 15–20% drawdown without forced action.

EXECUTION FRAMEWORK: Trim levels: Scale out 1/3 of trim on any push into $750–757 (intraday resistance/prior high zone), 1/3 on a retest of $740+, and hold final 1/3 in case of spike toward $770. Stop discipline on remainder: Trail closing stop at rising 10 EMA (~$680). A daily close below $680 invalidates breakout structure and warrants further trimming toward 50 SMA at $610.

RELOAD TRIGGERS: Add back to full Overweight on one of two setups: (1) Pullback entry at $680–700 zone (10 EMA confluence, prior breakout level) on declining volume with RSI resetting below 60 — this is the bull's own add zone, let bear case partially play out before re-engaging; (2) Breakout continuation with decisive daily close above $770 on volume >50M shares, with 50 SMA crossing above 200 SMA (golden cross confirmation). Until then, treat every squeeze as sellable.

KEY CATALYSTS: Priority order: (1) Q3 2026 earnings (late October) — capex guidance is the swing factor; higher capex extends FCF compression thesis, peak signal re-engages bull; (2) Meta Connect (late September/October) — sell-the-news risk given RSI 76 and no golden cross; (3) Fed path and 10Y yield — first hike cycle since 2023 is regime change, hawkish surprise hits META's beta of 1.243 harder; (4) Muse adoption tracking and walled-garden response — Amazon/Walmart integrations would re-rate AI agent TAM, continued blocking caps bull case; (5) Leverage and buyback resumption — any FCF recovery signal to restart buybacks would undercut bear's leverage argument.

TIME HORIZON: 4–8 week tactical call. Structural long-term thesis (great business, PEG <1, AI platform monetization) remains intact. A successful reload in the $680 zone or on golden cross confirmation would warrant upgrading back to Overweight. At $736 today, disciplined trade is to take chips off table and wait for setup to come to you.

The research plan establishes a clear risk/reward asymmetry at $736: ~8% upside to Wells Fargo's $796 PT versus ~15–18% downside to the $600–625 confluence zone (50/200 SMA + Bollinger middle). The technical setup is overbought (RSI 76, price pinned to upper Bollinger band, 50 SMA still below 200 SMA — no golden cross confirmation), and Q2 fundamentals deteriorated sharply (FCF margin collapsed from ~23% to ~3%, capex +82% YoY, buybacks went to zero, net debt ~4x in twelve months). The plan's strategic action is to trim 25–33% into the $736–757 zone, trail a closing stop on the retained core at the 10 EMA (~$680), and reload only on a $680–700 pullback or a confirmed breakout above $770 with golden cross. Executing the trim now monetizes the +36% five-week rally while preserving the structural long-term thesis.

Stop loss: $680.00

Sizing: Trim 25–33% of current META exposure; scale 1/3 out at $750–757, 1/3 on retest of $740+, final 1/3 toward $770. Retained core sized to survive a 15–20% drawdown.