Trim GS to 85% of benchmark weight via 15–20% staged trim at $1,037–$1,045; maintain residual core with $980 hard stop
Underweight rating maintained at 85% benchmark weight (1.0–1.5% portfolio band). The structural floor remains intact via rising 200 SMA at $934, $5B quarterly buybacks, 16.9% ROE vs ~11% cost of equity, and 7.4% premium to 200 SMA — justifying residual core exposure. The 15–20% trim calibration at $1,037–$1,045 with $1,050 daily-close invalidation on further trim captures partial benefit from multiple-compression without overcommitting to a directional view. Previous 9/2 call captured +2.3% alpha using this trim-rather-than-short approach; repeating that calibration is the intended strategy.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Price at $1,037–$1,045 | Execute 15–20% trim to reach 85% of benchmark weight (1.0–1.5% portfolio band) |
| Daily close above $1,050 | Hard invalidation on FURTHER trim attempts |
| Price approaches $980 | Hard stop for residual core position |
Goldman Sachs is in a multi-quarter earnings acceleration with record earnings, sector-leading ROE of 16.9%, $20B+ annualized capital return, and favorable macro conditions for its franchises—the technical weakness at lower-band support represents a 3:1 risk/reward buying opportunity that the market hasn't priced in.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| close_200_sma | 934.39 | bullish |
| close_50_sma | 1,043.25 | bearish |
| close_10_ema | 1,026.23 | neutral |
| rsi_14 | 42.59 | neutral |
| macd | -5.04 | bearish |
| macd_signal | -3.73 | bearish |
| macd_histogram | -1.31 | bearish |
| bollinger_middle | 1,031.86 | neutral |
| bollinger_upper | 1,060.97 | bullish |
| bollinger_lower | 1,002.74 | bearish |
| atr_14 |
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Daily close above $1,050
Then: Do not attempt further trim; position is maintained
↩ rebuts: “Bear's implied valuation concern”
EV: +5.7% to +10.9% (target $1,150 from current ~$1,037; 52-week high retest) · concedes: The technical report's HOLD verdict is intellectually defensible—waiting for 50 SMA reclaim at $1,043 is a valid risk-management approach; Volume profile on the Sep 2-3 bounce needs confirmation; The bear's 'G-SIB headwind' is a real constraint on capital deployment at the margin; Cyclical revenue risk exists, though AWM provides recurring fee base mitigation; The 50 SMA at $1,043 rolling over is a legitimate short-term concern
GS is at the top of a cyclical credit cycle masquerading as a structural bull case, with Q2's record earnings representing a seasonal peak rather than a new run-rate, technical momentum broken, capital return funded by dangerous debt growth, and valuation at nearly 2x historical norms.
· concedes: The 200 SMA being 7% below price means the long-term uptrend is technically intact — but the cushion is finite with 7-11% downside risk to 934 if 1,002 is lost; ATR compression does signal a move is coming — just direction-neutral, not bullish; The technical report saying 'upside risk-reward is slightly more attractive' acknowledges some upside potential, though this was characterized as 'a tie' not a bull case; Stop-loss levels are acknowledged at 995, with target at 1,150 — though bear disputes the 6:1 risk-reward math
→ vs conservative: Waiting for full trend breakdown at the 200 SMA ($934) before trimming ignores that the 50 SMA at $1,043 is the actual trend-vulnerable pivot; the conservative analyst who needed the 200 SMA to roll over was the same person sitting through the August implosion from $1,148 to $972
→ vs conservative: Stablecoin consortium is a 2027+ story being used to justify a 2026 multiple; Polymarket assigns only 6% odds to stablecoins hitting $500B before 2027, making this commercially modest at launch
→ vs conservative: Debt-funded capital return story becomes fragile when credit spreads widen and the bond market begins pricing late-cycle risk; the 28% debt increase over 3.5 years funds buybacks that become the first lever pulled when conditions deteriorate
→ vs neutral: The neutral analyst's 'wait for confirmation' ignores that MACD has already crossed bearish, the 50 SMA has already rolled over, VWMA at $1,030 is overhead resistance, and RSI never reclaimed 55; by the time the neutral analyst gets their clean reclaim of $1,050 on heavy volume, the trader will have already banked a 30-point move from the upper band
→ vs neutral: The 'coiled spring' ATR compression thesis is a coin-flip dressed up as analysis; the directional bias favors downside resolution given the lower Bollinger Band just got tagged, MACD is still bearish, 50 SMA is rolling over, and price failed at the 10 EMA bounce
→ vs neutral: Waiting for confirmation means initiating into a thrust move with poor fills and worse conviction rather than front-running the resolution at levels where the math works
| 27.37 |
| neutral |
| vwma | 1,030.44 | neutral |
| latest_verified_close | 1,002.56 (Sep 1, 2026) | neutral |
| latest_file_close | 1,037.93 (Sep 3, 2026) | bullish |
Support: 1002 · 997 · 970 · 934 | Resistance: 1043 · 1061 · 1100
HOLD rating with neutral trend as GS sits at a critical inflection: long-term uptrend remains intact above the 200 SMA (934.39) but medium-term momentum is broken with price below the 50 SMA (1,043.25) and MACD in bearish territory (-5.04). The stock is testing the Bollinger lower band (1,002.74) following a July blowoff top and subsequent air-pocket drop to 975.97, with ATR compressed 30% from its July peak of 39.19 — a coiled-spring setup suggesting imminent directional resolution. Traders are advised to wait for confirmed reclaim above 1,050 (50 SMA) or breakdown below 996 before initiating positions.
Market Capitalization
$302.2 billion
TTM P/E Ratio
16.02x
Forward P/E
14.02x
PEG Ratio
1.24
Price/Book
2.87x
TTM EPS
$64.79
Forward EPS
$74.03
Dividend Yield
1.99%
Beta
1.288
52-Week High
$1,153.99
52-Week Low
$727.15
50-Day Moving Average
$1,045.01
200-Day Moving Average
$945.53
Book Value per Share
$362.05
FY2025 Total Revenue
$58,283 million
FY2025 Net Income
$17,176 million
FY2025 Diluted EPS
$51.32
FY2025 Pretax Income
$21,852 million
FY2025 Effective Tax Rate
21.4%
FY2025 Net Interest Income
$13,559 million
FY2024 Total Revenue
$53,512 million
FY2024 Net Income
$14,276 million
FY2023 Total Revenue
$46,254 million
FY2023 Net Income
$8,516 million
Q2 2026 Total Revenue
$17,227 million
Q2 2026 Net Income
$5,630 million
Q2 2026 Diluted EPS
$20.98
Q1 2026 Diluted EPS
$17.55
Q4 2025 Diluted EPS
$14.01
Q3 2025 Diluted EPS
$12.25
Q2 2025 Diluted EPS
$10.91
ROE (TTM)
16.90%
ROA (TTM)
1.07%
Profit Margin (TTM)
31.04%
Operating Margin (TTM)
42.18%
FY2025 Total Assets
$1,809,320 million
Q1 2026 Total Assets
$2,060,180 million
FY2025 Total Equity
$124,972 million
FY2025 Common Stock Equity
$109,819 million
FY2025 Tangible Book Value
$103,028 million
FY2025 Long-Term Debt
$296,212 million
FY2025 Total Debt
$386,150 million
FY2025 Net Debt
$219,721 million
FY2025 Cash & Equivalents
$164,259 million
FY2025 Trading Securities
$445,202 million
FY2025 Available-For-Sale Securities
$120,452 million
FY2025 Net Loans
$237.7 billion
Q1 2026 Total Equity
$122,782 million
Q1 2026 Long-Term Debt
$326,466 million
Q1 2026 Common Equity
$109,079 million
Q1 2026 Tangible Book Value
$101,557 million
Q1 2026 Net Debt
$253,110 million
FY2025 Operating Cash Flow
$-45,154 million
FY2025 Free Cash Flow
$-47,218 million
FY2025 CapEx
$-2,064 million
FY2025 Cash Dividends Paid
$-5,277 million
FY2025 Share Repurchases
$-12,360 million
FY2024 Share Repurchases
$-10,200 million
FY2023 Share Repurchases
$-6,796 million
FY2022 Share Repurchases
$-3,500 million
Q1 2026 Share Repurchases
$-5,000 million
FY2025 Net Debt Issuance
$18,984 million
D/E Ratio
725.4
FY2022 Trading Securities
$241,832 million
FY2022 Long-Term Debt
$254,245 million
Strengths
Concerns
Goldman Sachs delivered record FY2025 results with $17.18B net income and $51.32 EPS, nearly doubling from the FY2023 cyclical trough of $8.52B, driven by strong investment banking activity, trading revenues, and a 68% surge in net interest income to $13.6B. Q2 2026 showed continued acceleration with $20.98 EPS on $17.23B revenue, supported by an attractive ROE of 16.9%, an accelerating $20B+ annualized capital return program, and the scaling Transaction Banking franchise—though the stock trades near its 52-week high, limiting margin of safety amid cyclical capital markets exposure and rising leverage.