When: Pullback to 10 EMA ($182) holding 2+ sessions with RSI >50

Then: Add 15-20 bps

When: Daily close above upper Bollinger ($191) on volume >5M with MACD histogram expanding

Then: Add 10-15 bps

When: Clean Q4 FY26 print with bookings inflection >5% YoY AND operating margin ≥16.5% AND close above 200 SMA ($201.46)

Then: Scale to 100-150 bps total

Phased accumulation with 0.5-0.6% sizing and capacity to add after Q4 FY26 earnings confirmation; avoid entering before binary earnings event

• Stock derated from historical 25-30x forward earnings to 12.94x, with rate environment compressing duration assets like IT services
• Wide options risk band creates left-tail exposure for equity holders; elevated implied volatility doesn't compensate long equity positions
• 200 SMA at 201 is dynamic falling resistance (down from 208 in late July), not a static target
• Goodwill at 37% of total assets, growing 16% YoY while revenue grows 5.6%; a 10% impairment on $25B goodwill equals $2.5B charge
• MACD crossover signal is 7.84 vs 7.83 — a one-hundredth-of-a-point difference, not actionable
• ATR compression at $7.60 indicates coiled volatility but doesn't predict direction
• Proposed sizing of 0.8-1% creates 33 basis point portfolio loss on $33 stop vs 16.5 basis points at 0.5-0.6%
• Q4 FY26 earnings print due late September is a binary catalyst with wide outcome dispersion
• Mid-market acquisitions (McCoy + COMWARE) add ~200 professionals to 750,000-employee, $73B revenue company
• Institutional positioning is split: bullish on strategic narrative, cautious on near-term signals

→ vs aggressive: The MACD cross at 7.84 vs 7.83 is a one-hundredth-of-a-point difference that could flip negative on a single down day; acting on it with conviction is reckless, not bold

→ vs aggressive: The 200 SMA at 201 is falling resistance, not a target; calling resistance a target is how portfolios sell into the exact level where stocks roll over

→ vs aggressive: Wide options bands represent fat left tails and informed negative positioning, not free optionality for equity holders

→ vs aggressive: Goodwill at 37% of assets growing 16% YoY on 5.6% revenue growth is not a success story; it's a balance sheet risk that survivorship thinking on past M&A doesn't eliminate

→ vs aggressive: The mid-market pivot adding ~200 professionals to a 750,000-person company doesn't move the needle; calling it 'the cure' overstates early-stage evidence

→ vs aggressive: Size escalation to 0.8-1% removes the drawdown discipline that turns a manageable loss into a portfolio-level problem

→ vs aggressive: Entering before earnings with a thin MACD signal and 3% recent underperformance is not asymmetric risk-reward; it's taking full downside without protection

→ vs aggressive: Zero Reddit activity is an absence of conviction, not support; institutional flows driven by relative underperformance create their own gravity

BUY at 0.5% to 0.6% initial tranche, building to 1% to 1.5%, with protective put through September earnings and $154 stop

• Initial tranche at 0.5% to 0.6% is appropriate—meaningful enough to participate if setup resolves, small enough that stop at $154 doesn't damage the broader book
• Do not escalate to 1% into binary event with elevated IV—the aggressive case does not justify that commitment level
• Maintain $154 stop; respects the 50 SMA which is the structural line in the sand
• 4-to-1 reward structure is asymmetric in favor of the bull case
• Second tranche plan: trigger on either genuine flush to $154 or post-Q4 FY26 earnings clarity, whichever comes first
• Consider protective put or collar structure through September earnings to define downside risk; elevated IV makes hedges relatively expensive but vol-adjusted cheap
• Treat $201 200 SMA as stretch target, not base case—if reached and breaks through, add; if rejected, take profits and reassess
• 3.48% dividend yield provides carry on 6-month hold, making partial-position entry more attractive
• Goodwill is a slow-burn risk affecting multi-year multiple, not a binary event preventing current entry
• Mid-market pivot (McCoy/COMWARE into Accenture Edge) is real but requires 12 to 24 months to prove out—size accordingly
• Setups expire; original proposal already accounts for earnings catalyst by waiting for post-Q4 clarity before adding second tranche
• Retail sentiment silence is not a signal in either direction for a $116 billion market cap name

→ vs aggressive: Elevated IV pays options sellers, not spot buyers—it widens outcome distribution and exposes you to fat left tail, not compensates you for waiting

→ vs aggressive: Calling $201 200 SMA a 'target' rather than a ceiling only works in retrospect; the SMA is falling and price has been rejected, making it harder to reclaim, not easier

→ vs aggressive: Sizing up to 1% into binary event is wrong math—don't size up into them, size for the possibility you're wrong

→ vs aggressive: Zero Reddit activity is not supportive—it is simply normal for a $116B market cap IT services name

→ vs conservative: 'Wait two weeks for earnings' framing is intellectually defensible but practically problematic—setups expire and coiled breakouts resolve on their own timeline

→ vs conservative: Full passivity is more rigid than the original plan already contemplates, which explicitly plans to wait for post-Q4 FY26 clarity before adding second tranche

→ vs conservative: ACN losing relative-value battle caps near-term re-rating potential but does not override absolute-value setup from valuation, dividend, and balance sheet quality

→ vs conservative: Calling McCoy and COMWARE immaterial by headcount (200 vs 750,000) misses the point—the pivot is about strategic execution velocity signaled by two acquisitions in one week