Trim FDX 30-50% to $322; retain core with $315 hard stop and $290 structural exit
Underweight with 30-50% trim is the analytically honest synthesis that reconciles the 9/1 dispositive mandate for Underweight on this template with the 9/3 magnitude discipline. The Aggressive analyst's direction is correct; their magnitude overshoots. The Conservative analyst's magnitude concerns are correct on stop calibration and re-entry discipline; their exit magnitude is anchored on unverified data. The Neutral analyst's state-machine framework is the execution architecture. Q1 FY27 earnings is the binary resolution window — beat on both revenue maintenance and EPS exceeding $6.88 comp validates Overweight shift; miss on either confirms Underweight with downside to $250-271.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Current position size at $322 | Trim 30-50% of position executed in tranches over 1-3 sessions |
| Remaining core position | Hard stop $315 close (below lower Bollinger $317.49) — non-negotiable |
| Weekly close below $290 (200 SMA rising +4.6%/month) | Structural thesis-break stop — exit remaining core |
| Sept 16 FOMC event | Trim 10-15% of remaining core regardless of direction to neutralize event risk on beta-1.36 name |
| No position currently held | No new long initiation until bullish re-entry trigger fires or bearish re-engagement zone achieved |
FDX's technical pullback is healthy consolidation in a structural uptrend, not deterioration; fundamentals are inflecting with FCF up 91%, cash doubled to $13.31B, and the FedEx Freight spin-off is a JPM-backed catalyst for sum-of-parts re-rating that makes current levels a compelling BUY entry.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| close_50_sma | 319.44 | neutral |
| close_200_sma | 290.40 | bullish |
| close_10_ema | 325.59 | bearish |
| macd | 1.15 | bearish |
| macd_histogram | -1.50 | bearish |
| rsi | 48.00 | neutral |
| bollinger_upper_band | 339.44 | neutral |
| bollinger_middle_band | 328.47 | neutral |
| bollinger_lower_band | 317.49 | neutral |
Support: 290.4 · 317.49 · 319.44 · 322.52 | Resistance: 325.59 · 328.47 · 339.44
The verified close of $322.52 places FDX ~1.0% above the critical 50 SMA ($319.44) and ~11.1% above the 200 SMA ($290.40), confirming long-term structural bullishness but with a fragile medium-term pivot. Short-term momentum has decisively turned bearish as price trades below the 10 EMA ($325.59), MACD has formed a bearish crossover (line 1.15 below signal 2.65), and the histogram prints at -1.50. RSI at 48.00 sits neutral mid-range, having cooled from overbought territory after the prior rally from $307.40 (Jul 31) to $339.35 (Aug 13). Bollinger Bands establish immediate resistance at $328.47 (middle) and $339.44 (upper), with critical support at $317.49 (lower band). Volume context shows distribution at the Aug 13 peak (2,497,000 shares) and an orderly pullback on lighter volume (1.0M–1.5M), with a notable Sep 3 bar (2,529,200 shares) showing buyer engagement at lower levels.
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Flush to $295-305 with constructive price action (oversold MACD divergence, RSI <35 with stabilization)
Then: 25% starter long, stop $290
Fundamentals are inflecting strongly with FCF nearly doubling and cash doubling in three years
EV: +14-20% · concedes: Bear's technical signals (MACD cross below signal, price under 10 EMA, RSI cooling from overbought) are accurate observations about short-term tape; CCO firing post-spin could be characterized as governance noise; Stock is near 52-week highs; Higher-for-longer rates create near-term financing headwind
FDX has already priced in its self-help transformation, leaving no room for error on a knife-edge technical setup; a higher-for-longer macro, escalating restructuring costs, Amazon's structural share erosion, spin-off execution risk, and multiple compression make the $250-270 range the asymmetric downside target.
EV: -$250 to -$270 (16-22% downside from $322) · concedes: FCF inflection is real (91% up, cash doubled); Self-help transformation story is real; Stock was meaningfully undervalued at $179 (52-week low); Cash position of $13.31B is a real strength and real war chest; Restructuring savings are material and will eventually flow through; Global network and brand still have value even if eroding
→ vs conservative: 200 SMA at 11% above current price ($290) is a lagging indicator; by the time price gets there, trader has given back half gains; long-term trend intact thesis was also wrong a year ago when everyone called for breakout that never came
→ vs neutral: Balanced risk-reward and 'let market decide' stance is worst position; asymmetry strongly favors bear case ($271 needs one catalyst) over bull case ($360-$380 needs five aligned catalysts)
→ vs neutral: Traders who trimmed at $322 with stop at $315 preserve capital to redeploy at $290 or lower, or reload with conviction if proven out—better position than holding full position hoping for bounce
→ vs conservative: Aggressive play isn't patience; waiting for support to hold means watching slow-motion breakdown while capital bleeds
→ vs aggressive: Forward setup is deteriorating even though trailing fundamentals look good; market is forward-looking mechanism and FY2026 data is already historical
Market Cap
$73.18 billion
Shares Outstanding
~239 million (diluted)
Beta
1.364
Book Value per Share
$131.86
Dividend Yield
1.55%
PE (TTM)
16.65x
Forward PE
14.82x
PEG Ratio
1.36
Price/Book
2.34x
EV/EBITDA (implied)
~8.6x
52-Week Range
$179.15 – $345.37
50-DMA vs 200-DMA
$319.35 vs $292.16
Revenue FY2026
$94.72 billion
Revenue FY2025
$87.93 billion
Revenue FY2024
$87.69 billion
Revenue FY2023
$90.16 billion
Operating Income FY2026
$6.62 billion
Operating Income FY2025
$6.03 billion
Operating Income FY2024
$6.30 billion
Operating Income FY2023
$5.34 billion
Net Income FY2026
$4.43 billion
Net Income FY2025
$4.09 billion
Net Income FY2024
$4.33 billion
Net Income FY2023
$3.97 billion
Diluted EPS FY2026
$18.55
Diluted EPS FY2025
$16.81
Diluted EPS TTM
$18.57
Diluted EPS Forward
$20.86
Cost of Revenue FY2026
$74.10 billion
Unusual Items/Restructuring FY2026
$1.16 billion
Unusual Items/Restructuring FY2025
$815 million
Gross Margin
27.3%
EBITDA Margin
12.5%
Operating Margin TTM
11.13%
Net Profit Margin
4.68%
Tax Rate
~23.5%
Cash & Equivalents FY2026
$13.31 billion
Cash & Equivalents FY2025
$5.50 billion
Cash & Equivalents FY2024
$6.50 billion
Cash & Equivalents FY2023
$6.86 billion
Receivables FY2026
$12.67 billion
Receivables FY2025
$11.37 billion
Total Current Assets FY2026
$27.90 billion
Total Current Assets FY2025
$18.39 billion
Net PP&E FY2026
$58.87 billion
Goodwill FY2026
$6.73 billion
Total Assets FY2026
$98.94 billion
Total Assets FY2025
$87.63 billion
Accounts Payable FY2026
$4.33 billion
Current Debt + Lease FY2026
$5.10 billion
Total Debt FY2026
$42.94 billion
Total Debt FY2025
$37.42 billion
Net Debt FY2026
$12.40 billion
Net Debt FY2025
$15.08 billion
Stockholders' Equity FY2026
$31.65 billion
Stockholders' Equity FY2025
$28.07 billion
Working Capital FY2026
$8.99 billion
Working Capital FY2025
$2.98 billion
Current Ratio FY2026
1.48
Current Ratio FY2025
1.19
Debt/Equity FY2026
1.36x
Debt/Equity FY2025
1.33x
Interest Coverage
~7x
Operating Cash Flow FY2026
$8.93 billion
Operating Cash Flow FY2025
$7.04 billion
Capital Expenditure FY2026
-$3.81 billion
Capital Expenditure FY2025
-$4.06 billion
Capital Expenditure FY2023
-$6.17 billion
Free Cash Flow FY2026
$5.12 billion
Free Cash Flow FY2025
$2.98 billion
Free Cash Flow FY2023
$2.67 billion
FCF Yield
~7.0%
Dividends Paid FY2026
-$1.37 billion
Dividends Paid FY2025
-$1.34 billion
Buybacks FY2026
-$0.80 billion
Buybacks FY2025
-$3.02 billion
Net Debt Issuance FY2026
+$3.98 billion
FCF/Share FY2026
~$21.4
FCF/Share FY2025
$12.25
Interest Expense FY2026
$970 million
Interest Expense FY2025
$789 million
Restructuring Charges FY2026
$1.16 billion
Change in Working Capital FY2026
-$3.51 billion
ROE
14.85%
ROA
5.01%
52-Week High
$345.37
52-Week Low
$179.15
DRIVE Program Savings
$4+ billion
FedEx Freight Spin-off Dividend
$3+ billion
Long-term Debt Issued FY2026
$5.29 billion
Capital Lease Obligations
~$17.2 billion
Strengths
Concerns
FedEx delivered a strong FY2026 turnaround with revenue up 7.7% to $94.72B and EPS growing 10.4% to $18.55, while free cash flow nearly doubled to $5.12B as capex declined and operating cash flow surged 27%. The balance sheet was substantially strengthened with cash more than doubling to $13.31B and net debt falling 18% to $12.40B, positioning the company ahead of the planned FedEx Freight spin-off expected to involve a $3B+ dividend distribution. Key risks include thin net margins of 4.68%, escalating restructuring charges ($1.16B), high cyclicality (beta 1.36), and elevated leverage, while the forward PE of 14.82x with 12% earnings growth appears reasonably valued. Trading near 52-week highs limits margin of safety, though the technical posture (50-DMA above 200-DMA) remains bullish for trend-followers.
Macro: Fed policy: Polymarket consensus prices 93% probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 (mildly bearish for financing costs; FDX past peak capex mitigates); Goldman/Bloomberg "higher for longer" has historically been headwind for capex-heavy industrials. Recession tail risk: Polymarket shows only 8% probability of US recession by end-2026, supporting soft-landing thesis and freight volumes. Energy/oil: Rising crude prices driven by Trump midterms comment and Iran signaling; jet fuel is major Express cost line, but fuel surcharge program largely passes through to customers; $90+ Brent possible if Iran tensions intensify makes FY27 cost guidance harder. FRED macro data unavailable in this run; all macro judgments anchored to prediction-market probabilities and qualitative news flow.