When: Post-earnings failed-breakout reversal reclaiming $280 within 3-5 sessions

Then: Initiate or add to position at tertiary zone

Trim 50-60% of position (more aggressive than the aggressive analyst's 30-40% recommendation), tighten stops below $300, and require confirmed base-building with higher lows before re-entry rather than targeting specific price levels like $270-275.

• The most aggressive position is leaving 60-70% exposed to a binary event, not the 30-40% trim — a trim with a stop at $300 is insufficient
• Technical setup shows overbought conditions: RSI at 71 with price closing above upper Bollinger Band, most common resolution is snap-back to middle band at $271.70
• Valuation is 40-200% premiums to 10-year averages: Forward PE of 27.7x, price-to-book of 15x, price-to-sales of 13.8x; recovery is fully priced in
• Fed on hold at 96% odds of zero cuts in 2026 provides zero tailwind for multiple expansion
• Receivables jumped 80% in two quarters — flagged as worth monitoring by fundamentals team, not a sign of stronger recovery; most basic cyclical analog semiconductor pattern suggests channel pull-forward
• Quiet sentiment amplifies moves in both directions, not just upside; no wall of worry means no one defending the bid on downside
• Macro backdrop is narrow mega-cap-led rally with stress signals: Dow slipping, small caps struggling, weak September jobs print, Gundlach calling equities a hollow tree
• TXN's revenue mix is heavy in industrial and automotive, sensitive to broad economic softness
• Re-entry framework at $270-275 assumes specific price levels will be available — TXN can gap down through $270 in single session if Q3 misses

→ vs aggressive: Concentration risk: 60-70% of capital exposed to binary event in 2-3 weeks is not risk management but position sizing structured exactly wrong for the catalyst

→ vs aggressive: Technical misread: RSI at 71 and upper Bollinger Band breakout is overbought signal, not bullish confirmation — most common resolution is snap-back to $271.70, not continuation

→ vs aggressive: Valuation dismissal: Forward PE of 27.7x, P/B of 15x, P/S of 13.8x at 40-200% premiums to averages requires structural step-change above 2022 peak to justify; recovery is already priced in

→ vs aggressive: Receivables rationalization: 80% jump in two quarters flagged by fundamentals team should not be reframed as sign of stronger recovery — basic cyclical analog semiconductor pattern suggests channel pull-forward with revenue softening ahead

→ vs aggressive: Re-entry framework assumes price availability: If Q3 misses, TXN gaps down through $270 and reload level never triggers — actual risk is trim into strength, remainder marks down hard, then decide to add at higher prices or accept loss

Trim 40-50% of position, tighten stop to 2.97-2.98, build multi-trigger re-entry framework while maintaining 50-60% residual long exposure

• Recommended trim size increased from trader's 30-40% to 40-50%, maintaining 50-60% residual position
• Stop tightened from 3.00 to 2.97-2.98 to avoid round-number magnet getting run
• Re-entry framework rebuilt as condition-based with three independent triggers: (1) pullback to 50 SMA at 2.70-2.75 with confirmed higher low and reset momentum (RSI 55-65, MACD histogram turning), (2) price-based reload below 2.60 without confirmation, (3) failed-breakout reversal if TXN gaps down on earnings but reclaims 2.80 within 3-5 trading days on volume
• Q2 2026 showed highest recent revenue at $5.5B, operating margins at 42.5%, FCF covering dividend for first time in three years
• Technical setup described as three moving averages in bullish order, MACD histogram at +3.22, verified breakout above upper Bollinger Band on volume, higher-low sequence from September lows
• Emphasized this is a binary-event risk question about position sizing, not a question about TXN's fundamental quality
• Acknowledged both sides are partially right and missing the forest for the trees

→ vs aggressive: Calling 30-40% trim 'the most aggressive position you can take' is rhetorical gymnastics; trim is de-risking, not a coiled spring launch. Eighty percent receivables jump in two quarters is not normal for clean recovery—could be channel pull-forward, extended payment terms, or customer destocking. Quiet sentiment amplifies moves in both directions, not just up.

→ vs conservative: Cannot wave away Q2 results showing highest revenue in recent history, 42.5% operating margins, FCF now self-funding dividend, and forward earnings approaching 2022 peak levels. Three moving averages in bullish order, MACD expanding, Bollinger breakout on volume is not 'abandon ship'—it's 'manage the position.' Re-entry framework is operationally brittle; by the time confirmation forms, stock is back at 2.90, forfeiting reload.