Hold BRK-B at $506.93; stage entry at $498-500 with $545 trim zone
Maintain current BRK-B exposure at $506.93 without adding at spot. Use staged entry in the $498-500 zone (50 SMA) with MACD confirmation and RSI reclaiming 50+. Hard stop below 200 SMA at $488-490. Trim 20-25% above $545 as risk management. Position sizing at or below benchmark weight. The buyback halt is management's cleanest valuation signal, but the structural quality thesis prevents trimming into weakness.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Current position | Maintain at or below benchmark weight |
| Price above $545 | Trim 20-25% as risk management |
| Price approaches $498-500 zone with MACD histogram compressing toward zero and RSI reclaiming 50+ | Stage entry on confirmation |
The 4.25% pullback from $529.42 to $506.93 is a healthy momentum reset within a confirmed uptrend, not a regime change — supported by $373.3B in cash generating historic returns, accelerating buybacks, and a 12.91x P/E valuation that offers asymmetric upside at this entry point.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Close | $506.93 | neutral |
| 200 SMA | $491.52 (rising) | bullish |
| 50 SMA | $498.45 (rising) | bullish |
| 10 EMA | $513.84 (rolling over) | bearish |
| MACD | $5.82 | bearish |
| MACD Signal | $6.29 | bearish |
| MACD Histogram | -0.47 | bearish |
| RSI | 50.02 (from 74.55 on 08-10) | neutral |
| Bollinger Upper (20 SMA) | $532.78 | neutral |
| Bollinger Middle (20 SMA) | $507.26 | neutral |
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Sustained close below 200 SMA at $491.52 on volume
Then: Break structural thesis - trim regardless of entry price
The $373.3B cash pile is generating historic returns, not sitting idle
↩ rebuts: “Bear's 'dead money' characterization of cash reserves”
· concedes: Bear's identification of the three-day pullback from $529.42 to $506.93 is factually accurate; Q2 insurance underwriting profit did decline 13% YoY to $1.7B; BRK-B has lagged S&P 500 over the past year (+9.78% vs SPX at highs); Michael Burry has publicly soured on BRK-B; Short-term momentum indicators (MACD cross below signal, overbought RSI) are technically bearish signals
Berkshire Hathaway's apparent value metrics are misleading; forward earnings are pricing in a 44% decline, management is deploying cash at market peaks while halting buybacks, and the Buffett-to-Abel transition is compressing the historical valuation premium.
· concedes: $373B in cash earning $23B+ annually is real and substantial; Greg Abel insider buying at ~$507 is a data point favoring bulls; Current sentiment score of 5.2/10 shows neutral, not extreme bearish positioning; Insurance float of $177.5B remains a valuable structural advantage
→ vs conservative: Treating Berkshire Hathaway like a speculative momentum name requiring defense misreads the franchise entirely; buyback halt should be praised, not penalized, as management found better capital uses (Alphabet/Microsoft)
→ vs conservative: Framing $373B cash as a drag on returns ignores the $18-23B annual interest income and asymmetric optionality in any market correction or dislocation
→ vs conservative: Insurance underwriting framed as engine seizing up when $1.7B profit on $177B float with 127% investment income growth is structurally robust
→ vs neutral: Position sizing at or below benchmark weight is too timid; 0.61 beta delivers 60% market volatility with superior downside protection warranting overweight on risk-adjusted basis
→ vs neutral: 'Wait for reclaim of 10 EMA at $513.84' playbook causes 2-3% upside surrender historically; best BRK-B entries come on routine 50 SMA tests during healthy uptrends
→ vs neutral: 'At benchmark weight' during discount-to-intrinsic setup with $373B dry powder and active deployment is paralysis, not risk management
→ vs neutral: Abel buying tech not momentum chasing but acknowledging evolved opportunity set; Alphabet and Microsoft are modern equivalent of 1980s-90s Buffett positions
| Bollinger Lower (20 SMA) |
| $481.75 |
| neutral |
| ATR | $8.36 (from $7.45 on 08-07) | bearish |
| Close vs 50 SMA | +$8.48 | bullish |
| Close vs 200 SMA | +$15.41 | bullish |
| 50 vs 200 spread | +$6.93 (golden cross) | bullish |
Support: 507.26 · 498.45 · 491.52 · 481.75 | Resistance: 513.84 · 529.42 · 532.78
BRK-B closed at $506.93 on 2026-08-13, down 4.25% from the swing high of $529.42 on 08-10. The medium- and long-term uptrends remain intact (price above rising 50 SMA at $498.45 and 200 SMA at $491.52), but short-term momentum has deteriorated significantly: MACD has crossed below its signal line with histogram at -0.47, RSI has collapsed from overbought 74.55 to neutral 50.02, and price is now below the declining 10 EMA at $513.84. ATR has expanded to $8.36, indicating elevated volatility. The pullback is expected to test the 50 SMA zone at $498–$500, with $491.52 as the critical structural support below which the long-term bullish bias would shift to neutral/bearish. The recommended action is HOLD—maintain existing longs with stops below $498 and avoid new entries until either a reclaim of the 10 EMA or a bullish reversal at the 50 SMA confirms the correction has ended.
Market Cap
$1,085.19 Billion
P/E (TTM)
12.91x
Forward P/E
23.22x
EPS (TTM)
$39.27
Forward EPS
$21.83
PEG Ratio
10.06
Beta
0.607
52-Week High
$537.74
52-Week Low
$464.01
50-Day MA
$497.75
200-Day MA
$491.45
Book Value per Share
$498,663
FY2025 Revenue
$410.5B
FY2025 Net Income
$66.97B
FY2025 Diluted EPS
$31.04
FY2024 Net Income
$89.00B
FY2023 Net Income
$96.22B
FY2022 Net Income
-$22.76B
Operating Margin
32.6%
Profit Margin (TTM)
22.3%
FY2025 Interest Income
$23.26B
FY2024 Interest Income
$21.83B
FY2023 Interest Income
$15.76B
FY2022 Interest Income
$10.26B
FY2025 Total Assets
$1.222 Trillion
FY2024 Total Assets
$1.154T
FY2023 Total Assets
$1.070T
FY2022 Total Assets
$948B
Cash + Short-Term Investments (2025)
$373.3B
Cash + Short-Term Investments (2024)
$334.2B
Cash + Short-Term Investments (2023)
$167.6B
Cash + Short-Term Investments (2022)
$128.6B
Stockholders' Equity (2025)
$717.4B
Tangible Book Value
$600.5B
Total Debt (2025)
$129.1B
Long-Term Debt
$125.8B
Net Debt
$77.2B
Goodwill & Intangibles
$116.9B
Retained Earnings
$763.2B
Equity Investments
$297.8B
Investments and Advances
$657.0B
FY2025 Operating Cash Flow
$45.97B
FY2024 Operating Cash Flow
$30.59B
FY2023 Operating Cash Flow
$49.20B
FY2022 Operating Cash Flow
$37.35B
FY2025 Free Cash Flow
$25.04B
FY2024 Free Cash Flow
$11.62B
FY2023 Free Cash Flow
$29.79B
FY2022 Free Cash Flow
$21.89B
FY2025 CapEx
-$20.93B
FY2025 Unrealized Investment Losses
-$39.98B
FY2024 Unrealized Investment Losses
-$49.30B
FY2023 Unrealized Investment Losses
-$69.14B
ROE
12.12%
ROA
6.01%
Current Ratio
2.91
Debt-to-Equity
17.1%
Net PPE
$235.2B
Loss Adjustment Expense (2025)
$61.69B
FY2025 Net Debt Issuance
+$3.03B
Strengths
Concerns
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) operates a diversified conglomerate anchored by its legendary float-based insurance model (GEICO, General Re, BHRG) alongside BNSF Railway, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and a massive $297.8B equity investment portfolio. FY2025 results show revenue of $410.5B with net income of $66.97B, though GAAP earnings remain depressed by ~$40B in non-cash unrealized investment losses for the third consecutive year. The company has never been financially stronger—$373.3B in cash represents 34% of its $1.085T market cap, while stockholders' equity grew 10.5% to $717.4B. Operating performance is exceptional with 32.6% operating margins and $25.04B in free cash flow. Trading at 12.91x trailing P/E, BRK-B offers a rare combination of defensive characteristics (0.61 Beta), compounding insurance float, and unmatched financial flexibility for opportunistic deployment.
Macro: Fed pricing near-zero odds of cuts in 2026 (86% 'no cuts' implied); U.S. recession probability 8% (down -1pp on the week); August inflation clustered 3.3%–3.4% (~36% each on Polymarket); S&P 500 and TSX at record highs; WTI oil surging with 62% odds of $85 in August (+13.5pp); benign CPI prints supporting equities; higher-for-longer regime structurally supports insurance float yields.