When: Confirmed close above $128 on volume >7M with MACD histogram turning less negative and RSI reclaiming 50

Then: Buy ~30% of intended weight

HOLD for new capital; wait for momentum confirmation or deeper pullback before initiating position

• Tranche 1 triggers at $125 with 8.8% above better entry near 200 SMA
• ATR $3.25; 2x ATR stop = $6.50, but gap-down scenarios can make $108 stop a $95 stop (25% loss)
• Forward P/E at 12.95; compression to 9-10x if oil normalizes to $75 creates 25-35% drawdown independent of operations
• COP breakeven $30-$40 protects dividend but not equity multiple from regime change
• 30-year Treasury at 2002 highs; 97% probability of zero Fed cuts in 2026 signals tightening financial conditions
• Mortgage rates at 7.58% pricing out affordability, threatening housing, construction, manufacturing, and transportation demand
• Alaska LNG has no FID, no offtake contract, no construction start, no timeline—paying full multiple for long-dated option
• Preferred Tranche 1 triggers: reclaim $128 on 10 EMA with RSI turning up and MACD histogram divergence, or capitulation at lower Bollinger band $122, or pullback to $118-$120

→ vs aggressive: Deploying Tranche 1 at $125 means buying into a momentum vacuum with deteriorating technicals; 40% position captures full downside risk while only capturing 40% of upside if stock runs without retesting $118-$115

→ vs aggressive: The '8% yield opportunity cost' framing ignores that the same capital can face 25% realized loss in a week from gap-down oil headlines; 8% forgone income versus 25% capital loss is not symmetric risk

→ vs neutral: Energy's positive correlation with rising yields is a short-term supply-shock phenomenon; long-end rate surge at 23-year highs signals demand destruction risk that has historically crushed energy in 2008, 2014-16, and 2020

→ vs neutral: Alaska LNG thesis conflates near-term cash flow with long-dated optionality; position sizing should be much smaller for ten-year real options than for near-term FCF theses

Buy with reduced Tranche 1 (25% of intended weight), unchanged $108 hard stop, soft mental stop at $118, Tranche 2 pre-committed at $115-$122, fourth trigger at $130 with RSI/MACD confirmation, and optional hedging with put protection below $105 for 60 days

• 8% capital return yield is real and supports owning the stock
• Fortress balance sheet at Net Debt/FCF of 2.2x
• Structural oil regime with WTI sustainably above $30-40 breakeven
• Breakout Q2 earnings and forward P/E of 12.95x
• Current $125 entry is 8% above 200 SMA at $115 — not maximum fear but residual fear
• Lower Bollinger band proximity and confirmed breakdown bounce noted
• 30-year yields at 2002 highs with 97% probability of zero Fed cuts in 2026 is a financial conditions signal beyond just inflation
• Mortgages at 7.58% ripple through consumer credit, durable goods, trucking, and oil demand
• September equity weakness consistent with macro headwinds
• Aggressive analyst's one-month correlation between energy and rising yields is a snapshot, not a regime
• Reduced Tranche 1 at 25% of intended weight is 0.75% to 1.25% of portfolio at risk vs original 1.2% to 2%
• $108 hard stop unchanged
• Soft mental stop at $118 (200 SMA retest zone)
• Tranche 2 pre-committed at $115 to $122
• Fourth trigger: confirmed close above $130 with RSI reclaiming 50 and MACD bullish crossover
• Optional hedging: long-dated put or collar below $105 for 60 days given elevated implied volatility
• Alaska LNG $200 billion framework with Korean offtake partners has real optionality value even as a five-year option
• Aggressive plan overweights entry urgency; conservative plan underweights entry cost of waiting

→ vs aggressive: Maximum fear framing is a value-investing cliché — $125 is 8% above the 200 SMA at $115, not at maximum fear levels, and buying Tranche 1 at $125 contradicts the stated plan to reserve Tranche 2 for the $115-$122 retest zone

→ vs aggressive: Rising yields correlation is a near-term snapshot, not a regime — 30-year yields at 2002 highs with 97% zero cut probability is a financial conditions signal that ripples through consumer credit, durable goods, trucking, and oil demand over 6-18 months

→ vs aggressive: Tranche discipline without correct sizing is risk management theater — if conviction is high enough for $125 entry, Tranche 1 should be smaller than 40%, sized to conviction level

→ vs conservative: $108 stop becoming $95 stop is a hypothetical catastrophe being used to override base-case analysis — Polymarket data shows zero probability of $110 spikes, and low-probability tail scenarios shouldn't argue against any entry

→ vs conservative: Waiting for $115 retest that may never come is patience becoming paralysis — if stock rips to $135 on earnings or oil breaks above $110, the entry is missed entirely

→ vs conservative: Conflating variance with negative expectancy — fortress balance sheet, 8% capital return, supportive commodity regime, and intact uptrend constitute positive expectancy with elevated near-term variance, not a coin toss

→ vs conservative: Alaska LNG dismissal is too dismissive — a federal-blessed $200 billion framework with named Korean offtake partners is materially different from prior false starts, and optionality has real value even as a five-year option