When: Confirmed close >$318.68 (10 EMA) with RSI >42 and positive MACD histogram divergence

Then: Partial re-engagement to 50-60% residual

When: $280-290 with MACD histogram contracting AND two consecutive closes above lower Bollinger Band

Then: Scaled entry to 25% of intended position

When: $260-270 with volume >2x 50-day average and closing print ≤$265

Then: Scaled entry to 35% of intended position

Trim 30-40% of INTU at current levels; hold residual core position with hard stop at 287; move trimmed capital to cash or short-duration Treasuries; do not pre-commit to re-entry tranches; wait for confirmed technical reversal above 318 before redeploying capital.

• Price below all three major moving averages in full bearish stack with MACD histogram expanding negative and RSI at 38
• Lower Bollinger Band at 294 is less than one ATR below spot; hard stop at 287 defined as roughly one ATR below recent low
• 200-day moving average at 408 means waiting costs 35% of any recovery move
• Tranche re-entry system rejected as market timing with three separate decisions, each with execution risk and gap vulnerability
• 52-week low at 252.84 is the lower support boundary with no technical reference below it
• Fundamentals remain excellent: 40% FCF margins, 25% EPS growth, forward P/E of 11, $6.75B capital return vs $81B market cap
• Re-entry criteria: daily close above 10 EMA at 318 with RSI reclaiming 50 and MACD histogram contracting
• Short-duration Treasuries yielding ~4% for trimmed capital while awaiting reversal confirmation
• Residual risk cap at 2% of portfolio using ATR of 13.79, but total committed capital after tranches would exceed this
• 96% odds of no rate cuts through 2026 is a ceiling for software multiples, not a tailwind

→ vs aggressive: Three-tranche re-entry plan is market timing dressed as discipline with sequential execution risk; worst case is stock reverses from 285 and 252 never prints, leaving exposure underperforming a 30% move

→ vs aggressive: Treating 252-265 zone as guaranteed support is dangerous; if 252 breaks there is no next technical support reference below it

→ vs aggressive: Layering three tranches means total committed capital exceeds stated 2% residual risk cap; plan too complex to execute reliably

→ vs neutral: 'Hold with positive bias and add on confirmation' ignores 35% opportunity cost of waiting from 200-day MA at 408 to entry

→ vs neutral: 96% odds of no cuts through 2026 is a multiple ceiling, not a tailwind; higher for longer precludes the multiple expansion that drove stock from 252 to 705

Trim 35% at current levels; hold residual with stop at 273-275; re-enter in two tranches (280-290, then 260-270 on capitulation volume); deploy trimmed capital to T-bills earning 4%; cap total portfolio risk at 3%

• MACD histogram at negative 4.66 and expanding is the single most important data point
• Trim 35% of position at current levels to preserve capital while maintaining long-term thesis
• Hold residual with volatility-adjusted stop at 273-275, anchored to two ATR below recent structural support (ATR: 13.79)
• Two-tranche re-entry plan: tranche one at 280-290, tranche two at 260-270 on capitulation volume
• Tranche one trigger: MACD histogram contracting AND price holding above lower Bollinger Band (294.10) on closing basis for two consecutive days
• Tranche two trigger: daily volume exceeding twice the 50-day average with closing print at or below 265
• Total portfolio risk capped at 3% of total portfolio value across entire plan including all planned tranches
• Deploy trimmed capital to short-duration Treasuries earning approximately 4%
• Forward P/E of 11 with 25% EPS growth and 40% FCF margins supports rebalancing over exiting
• Stock has fallen 54% from high; 90-day return shows plus 20% indicating potential fast reversal velocity
• Sentiment score of 6 out of 10 with zero Reddit discussion and zero retail bid indicates institutional indecision, not euphoric positioning
• Reject pre-commitment to third tranche or levels above current price

→ vs aggressive: MACD contraction OR RSI divergence is one confirmation with two ways to fulfill it, not two independent confirmations; RSI divergence is notoriously difficult to identify in real time when price is making fresh lows

→ vs aggressive: 252 to 265 zone has no support reference below it; a close below 252 with a stop at 344 creates asymmetric risk where the residual gets stopped out at exactly the moment asymmetry should be best

→ vs aggressive: Three-tranche plan has too many decision points and execution complexity that cannot be reliably managed

→ vs aggressive: Asymmetric tail risk is the dominant variable on a stock that has fallen 54% from high; probability of gap-down on FY27 customer print or AI disruption headline is non-trivial and cannot be priced at zero

→ vs conservative: Waiting for daily close above 318 means buying 4.5% above current price of 304; by definition these conditions emerge after a meaningful bounce has already begun

→ vs conservative: Stop at 287 sits below recent structural support (Sep 18 intraday low: 300.67, lower Bollinger Band: 294.10); in a stock with ATR of 13.79, this stop will get tagged by noise not signal and investor will get shaken out watching the stock reverse the next day

→ vs conservative: Plan underestimates velocity of bottoms in quality names; INTU will likely reverse fast when it does, requiring cash ready at the moment 318 prints, but the plan will pay up or sit on sidelines having paid the full insurance premium twice