When: Q3 capex guide DOWN year-over-year for 2027

Then: Upgrade to Neutral

When: Clean break above $778 on volume >25M

Then: Upgrade to Neutral

Trim 50-60% of position now; widen stop to confirmed daily close below 700 with follow-through OR hedge residual 40-50% with protective puts at 680-700 strike (2-3% cost); re-entry only on validated higher low above 680 with momentum confirmation OR weekly close in 600-640 zone with RSI rebuilding from oversold.

• Proposed trim of 50-60% (vs Aggressive's 30-40%), parking capital in cash or short-duration Treasuries
• 680 stop is dangerously miscalibrated: ~1.78x ATR, only 40 points (5.5%) below 720.89 current price, in a stock breaking below 10 EMA, VWMA, with bearish MACD cross and beta of 1.185
• Polymarket prices 62% probability META touches 680 or lower in October; 16% probability of touching 620
• FCF margin has collapsed 84%; long-term debt up 190% YoY; Construction in Progress at 80.35 billion dollars pending PP&E conversion
• Fed has 96% probability of zero cuts in 2026; restrictive rate regime compressing FCF
• 27x P/E vulnerable to compression to 20x on single Q3 earnings miss
• Re-entry zone of 640-680 is speculative: 640 floor may fail, trader discipline to buy back historically unreliable
• Alternative to wider stop: protective put with strike 680-700, costing 2-3% of position value, provides convex downside protection without abandoning multi-year compounding
• Re-entry conditions: higher low above 680 with positive momentum confirmation OR weekly close in 600-640 zone with RSI rebuilding from oversold
• PEG 0.98 and 35% operating margins acknowledged but insufficient to override 4-quarter structural deterioration risk

→ vs aggressive: 30-40% trim is insufficient given 84% FCF margin collapse, 190% debt growth, and 62% Polymarket probability of the 680 stop being hit; preserving 60-70% of position with fragile stop is concentration risk, not discipline

→ vs aggressive: Re-entry plan at 640-680 is speculative; assumes 640 floor holds (16% chance of 620 touch suggests otherwise) and assumes trader discipline to buy back after bear case validates, which historically fails

→ vs aggressive: 680 stop is not asymmetric protection; it is front-running obvious support level that will be tested and stopped out, with re-entry forced at higher prices or missed entirely

→ vs neutral: PEG 0.98 and 35% operating margins are seductive framing that ignores next 4 quarters of structural FCF deterioration, restrictive rate regime, and Q3 earnings risk; moat realness does not protect near-term P/E compression

→ vs neutral: Treating META as long-term compounder while ignoring Q3 earnings and rate environment is faith-based, not fundamental investing

Trim 40 percent over five to seven trading days; stop at 688 on confirmed daily close; no protective puts; re-enter event-driven around earnings and technical confirmation.

• 40 percent trim is the compromise between Aggressive's 30-40 percent and Conservative's 50-60 percent
• PEG of 0.98, 30 percent forward EPS growth, ROE near 30 percent, 3 billion daily active users, 35 percent operating margin represent durable business quality
• 5-7 trading day execution window is optimal for a 1.84 trillion dollar market cap name with 15-20 million shares daily volume
• Stop at 688 on confirmed close below 688 with failure to reclaim 700 the next session is approximately 4.5 percent
• ATR of 22.87 informs stop placement, not the arbitrary 680 level both other analysts referenced
• No protective puts recommended as hedging cost on 680 strike is 4-5 percent of position value, not 2-3 percent, creating drag on remaining 60 percent
• Re-entry triggers: (1) post-Q3 earnings holding above 50 SMA at 635 if FCF clears expectations; (2) reclaiming 10 EMA on closing basis with RSI above 55
• META trading 14.6 percent above 200 SMA at 628 indicates macro headwinds are partially priced, challenging Conservative's underpriced bear case thesis
• 96 percent odds of zero cuts and mortgage rates at three-year highs are noted headwinds but already reflected in current price levels

→ vs aggressive: The 680 stop has 62 percent Polymarket odds of being tagged in October, which is not risk management but a transaction cost disguised as protection; treating the situation as binary when the tape shows it is conditional oversimplifies three separate bear scenarios with different probabilities and magnitudes

→ vs conservative: 50 to 60 percent trim is overcorrection as the 50 SMA at 635 and 200 SMA at 628 show the market has already priced the macro headwinds, with META still 14.6 percent above 200 SMA; real hedging cost at 4 to 5 percent not the estimated 2 to 3 percent; re-entry framework of waiting for higher low with momentum or weekly close in 600 to 640 is market timing with extra steps that mathematically eliminates the upside of trimming at 720