When: 10 EMA reclaim + RSI >30 (MACD histogram still negative)

Then: Scale 1/3 of intended add

When: MACD histogram positive

Then: Complete the position to full target

When: $215-218 with RSI sub-30, bullish divergence on successive lower-lows, declining volume climax, MACD histogram flattening/hooking up

Then: Asymmetric add-back at capitulation lows

HOLD; do not add until all three confirmations fire together; collect dividend while waiting; strict discipline against adding on oversold bounces; stop loss at $234 (52-week low); next support vacuum at $220-225 if $234 breaks

• RSI has been below 30 for 4 consecutive sessions with no bullish divergence confirmed, suggesting momentum exhaustion but not reversal
• Stock sold off 29% from February high; forward multiple at 17x but could compress to 15x on lower EPS base with price targets in the $200s
• Operating margins at 46.5% but net debt is $39.2 billion, net debt/EBITDA at 2.67x, and dividend payout ratio is 71% ($5.12B dividend against $7.19B FCF)
• Interest expense rose from $1.16B in 2022 to $1.5B in 2025 despite higher rate environment
• Working capital has flipped negative; cash on balance sheet is only $774 million
• $8.5 billion franchisee investment program runs through 2036 (10-year horizon); ArchIQ AI is second attempt after first platform was discontinued
• Commerce media network is years from scale; 150 million loyalty guest reactivation is an aspiration, not a near-term catalyst
• 96% probability of no Fed cuts in 2026; 10-year Treasury at 5% (highest since 2007); Fed just raised rates again
• Forward EPS has been cut for three consecutive quarters; mortgage rates approaching 7.5%
• Stop loss at $234 is the 52-week low; stock currently trading $2.50 above it with next support vacuum at $220-225 (5-7% additional downside)
• Giving up 3-5% of an initial rebound is the acceptable cost of capital preservation

→ vs aggressive: RSI sub-25 historical rebound rate of 60-70% ignores the 30-40% of cases where RSI stays pinned below 30 for weeks in sustained downtrends; a 5-10% relief bounce in a downtrend is a counter-trend scalp, not a directional trade, and does not fix the structural problem

→ vs aggressive: CEO's 'permanent inflation' commentary is not 'bad news priced in' but a fundamental signal that headwinds are structural, not cyclical; the market sold off 29% because management is saying the operating environment is permanently impaired for core customers

→ vs aggressive: The 30% upside re-rating math assumes multiple normalizes AND earnings base holds; if the multiple is the only thing holding up while earnings drift down, investors get 12-15% downside on multiple compression alone before any further earnings cuts

→ vs aggressive: Conflating 'quality franchise with long-term strategic plan' with 'buyable setup right now' are very different statements; strategic catalysts are 2027-2030+ horizon and do not protect against near-term breakdown

→ vs aggressive: Fortress balance sheet framing ignores that net debt is $39.2 billion, the dividend has a 71% payout ratio, working capital is negative, and the company is essentially fully leveraged with rising debt service costs

→ vs neutral: Confirmation framework is sound but should arguably be even stricter given the macro environment; starting to build on first 10 EMA reclaim with RSI crossing 30 is catching a falling knife

HOLD with tiered confirmation framework—scale in one-third position on 10 EMA reclaim at 245 with RSI crossing above 30, complete position when MACD histogram turns positive; stop at 234 with awareness of 220-225 support vacuum; maintain current position and collect dividend yield while waiting for asymmetric technical setup

• Forward EPS estimates of $13.86 could be vulnerable to further cuts given CEO's 'permanent inflation' duration signal
• Net debt to EBITDA of 2.67 is investment-grade, not distressed; $10.5B operating cash flow against $5.1B dividends creates $5.4B buffer
• McDonald's returned $7.17B to shareholders in 2025 against $7.19B FCF—99% distribution ratio reflects deliberate capital policy
• Dividend yield of 3.26% with 7.1% CAGR and recent hike is genuine cost of waiting, not risk
• Tiered confirmation framework: scale in 1/3 on 10 EMA reclaim at 245 with RSI above 30, complete on MACD histogram positive turn
• Three-condition gate too strict—MACD lags price by 5-10 sessions, missing 8-12% of recovery; two-condition too loose for downtrend
• Stop loss at 234 appropriate; 220-225 zone is next support if 234 breaks on volume
• Strategic pipeline ($8.5B franchisee commitment, ArchIQ AI) provides valuation floor but not near-term catalyst
• Earnings stability and sentiment shift can drive multiple expansion without Fed pivot
• Holding MCD at these levels is itself a conviction trade given structural quality and dividend yield

→ vs aggressive: RSI sub-25 rebound statistic assumes normal market environment; 30-40% of time RSI stays pinned below 30 is not a tail risk but meaningful probability in tightening cycle

→ vs aggressive: CEO's 'many more years' of inflation is a fundamental duration signal, not just validating priced-in conditions—forward EPS of $13.86 could face further cuts

→ vs aggressive: 10 EMA reclaim with RSI crossing 30 alone is momentum trigger in downtrend with no trend confirmation—textbook definition of catching a falling knife

→ vs conservative: Dividend framing as 'not free money' is dramatic—3.26% yield with 7.1% CAGR and Dividend Aristocrat status not at risk from one bad macro year

→ vs conservative: 'Fortress-besieged' framing overcooked—$5.4B operating cash flow buffer, investment-grade leverage, and franchise model's royalty streams provide structural support

→ vs conservative: 2036 strategic horizon dismissal is too convenient—multi-year catalysts determine valuation floor regardless of near-term timing

→ vs conservative: Macro pessimism may be overcooked—MCD can rerate toward historical range without Fed pivot if earnings hold and sentiment shifts