Hold TXN through Jackson Hole catalyst; existing stop framework and position sizing unchanged
Six consecutive Hold calls have correctly preserved alpha by avoiding fresh deployment at broken intermediates. The $267 hard stop defines the thesis-damage threshold — evidence of broken secular uptrend would appear there, and sell would be warranted only upon that evidence. Current setup is functionally identical to prior Hold configurations: price below 50 SMA at $290, MACD histogram barely positive after weeks of deterioration, bounce volume unconfirmed against 7-9M threshold, and 26.2x forward P/E baking in consensus EPS 58% above TTM. Jackson Hole in 10 days is a fresh binary catalyst requiring the same disciplined posture. No pre-event add; reassess post-catalyst with the adopted decision tree.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Current position | Maintain 2-3% position sizing unchanged |
| Defended $267 support + non-hawkish macro tone post-Jackson Hole | Scale toward 3% upper bound, then evaluate breakout toward 4% |
| Confirmed close above $292 on >7M volume post-Jackson Hole | Evaluate upgrade to Overweight at 4% |
| Price flush through $267 to $255 | Reassess with full information, no add |
| Hawkish duration-unfriendly tone post-Jackson Hole | Protect capital, hold core position, wait for Q3 earnings |
TXN is a coiled spring at a generational entry point, with positive MACD histogram divergence at lower Bollinger Band support coinciding with accelerating fundamentals (record Q2 revenue, 61.4% gross margins) and a 100% constructive sentiment backdrop, offering asymmetric upside to $300+ versus limited -15% downside at rising 200 SMA support.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| close_200_sma | 230.81 | bullish |
| close_50_sma | 290.32 | bearish |
| close_10_ema | 278.18 | bearish |
| rsi | 43.49 | neutral |
| macd | -3.45 | bearish |
| macdh | +0.40 | bullish |
| boll_ub | 289.78 | bearish |
| boll_lb | 267.45 | bullish |
| atr | 11.15 | neutral |
Support: 267.45 · 255 · 230.81 | Resistance: 278.18 · 278.62 · 289.78 · 290.32
TXN is in a short-term bearish correction within a structurally intact long-term uptrend. Price (272.24) has broken decisively below the 50 SMA (290.32), which is rolling over, and is hugging the Bollinger Lower Band at 267.45 after testing an intraday low of 268.67. The MACD histogram turning positive (+0.40) and RSI approaching oversold suggest downside momentum may be exhausting, but a confirmed bounce requires price reclaiming the 278.62 middle band. Overall recommendation is HOLD: a hold above 267.45 could yield a relief bounce targeting 278-290, while a clean break below opens the path to 255-260.
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: $268-272 zone with stabilizing volume AND post-Jackson-Hole resolution
Then: Add toward 3% upper bound if $267 defended and macro tone non-hawkish
Q2 2026 fundamentals show acceleration with record quarterly performance
↩ rebuts: “Bear: 'TTM P/E of 41x is elevated'”
EV: +18% · concedes: TTM P/E of 41x is elevated (but TTM is a backward-looking trough multiple while Q2 2026 annualized EPS already 30% above TTM); Buyback pace has slowed to $1.5B vs $3.6B in 2022 (but because capex peaked - capital reallocation toward growth that produces multi-year returns); Beta of 1.33 - more volatile than market (but this is precisely why Bollinger Band tag with positive MACD divergence is the optimal entry point); Customer concentration in auto/industrial makes TXN sensitive to PMI (but auto is accelerating with lower channel inventories and EV content gains; even in 8% recession scenario, TXN's defensive analog profile and U.S. manufacturing premium provide relative insulation)
TXN's "coiled spring" is actually a coiled trap: the stock is broken below its 50 SMA, trading at 41x TTM P/E on cyclical trough earnings, lacks retail confirmation, has fading buyback support, and faces yield headwinds with Jackson Hole risk in 10 days; fair value on trough-with-sustainable-multiple math is $230-260, not $430.
EV: -4% to -7% · concedes: MACD histogram has turned positive (+0.40); Proximity to oversold levels could yield relief bounce; 50 SMA reclaim + Q3 beat could yield +14-18% in 5% outcome
→ vs conservative: Applying trough multiples to peak-of-cycle earnings; TXN should not be judged on 41x trailing P/E when TTM earnings represent the worst quarter of the past two years
→ vs conservative: Don't add above 275 before Jackson Hole recommendation is too timid given asymmetric risk-reward at current levels
→ vs neutral: Probability-weighted return is NOT roughly flat; distribution is left-skewed toward upside because fundamental floor keeps rising while price capitulates
→ vs neutral: Current stop at 267 on existing position with entry at 255 should prompt ADDING behavior, not passive holding
Market Cap
$248.6B
P/E (TTM)
41.3
Forward P/E
26.2
P/B
13.8
PEG
1.23
EPS (TTM)
$6.59
Forward EPS
$10.40
Profit Margin
31.1%
Operating Margin
42.6%
ROE
35.2%
ROA
13.1%
Gross Margin (Q2 2026)
61.4%
Total Assets
$35.9B
Total Debt
$14.1B
Cash and ST Investments
$7.0B
Net Debt
$10.4B
Current Ratio
4.86
Debt/Equity
78.0%
OCF (FY2025)
$7.15B
FCF (FY2025)
$2.60B
FCF (TTM)
$3.55B
Capex (FY2025)
$4.55B
Dividends (FY2025)
$5.00B
TTM Revenue
$19.45B
FY2025 Revenue
$17.68B
FY2024 Revenue
$15.64B
Q2 2026 Revenue
$5.46B
Q2 2026 Diluted EPS
$2.14
52-Week High
$334.03
52-Week Low
$152.73
50-Day MA
$291.70
200-Day MA
$232.34
Beta
1.33
FY2022 EPS
$9.41
FY2023 EPS
$7.07
FY2024 EPS
$5.20
FY2025 EPS
$5.45
FY2022 Operating Margin
51.9%
FY2024 Operating Margin
34.1%
FY2025 Operating Margin
34.7%
Q2 2026 QoQ Revenue Growth
13.2%
Q2 2026 YoY Revenue Growth
22.8%
Q3 2025 Revenue
$4.74B
Q4 2025 Revenue
$4.42B
Q1 2026 Revenue
$4.83B
Q2 2026 Operating Income
$2.33B
Q2 2026 Operating Margin
42.6%
Q2 2026 FCF
$2.19B
Net PPE
$11.9B
Inventory
$4.61B
FY2025 Buybacks
$1.48B
FY2022 Buybacks
$3.62B
Treasury Stock
$41.9B
Strengths
Concerns
Texas Instruments demonstrates a compelling cyclical recovery with Q2 2026 revenue hitting $5.46B (all-time high) and gross margins expanding to 61.4%, while operating margins recovered to 42.6% from a trough of 34.1% in 2024. The company maintains exceptional capital efficiency with a 35.2% ROE and a fortress balance sheet featuring $7.0B in cash against $14.1B in debt, though free cash flow remains compressed at $2.6B annually due to peak capex of $4.55B for 300mm fab expansion in Texas and Utah. Valuation appears stretched on a TTM basis (P/E 41.3x) but forward P/E of 26.2x reflects analyst expectations for ~58% EPS recovery to $10.40, supported by secular growth in automotive electrification and industrial automation end markets.