Underweight LRCX; trim ~30% into $337–$345 resistance, retain 60–70% core with $317.76 stop
Underweight rating maintained with 30% trim into resistance; retain 60-70% core with $317.76 closing-basis stop. No new capital before either volume-confirmed break above $346.52 with MACD confirmation or pullback to $300-$310.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| LRCX near $337–$345 overhead resistance | Trim ~30% (toward upper half of 25%–40% range) in tranches |
| Core position maintenance | Retain 60%–70% core LRCX exposure |
| New capital deployment | Do not add near $332 or before confirmed re-entry criteria |
LRCX is at a constructive tactical entry point where accelerating fundamentals (30%+ revenue growth, 37% operating margins), a strategic $3B R&D moat-deepening commitment, bullish MACD inflection, and neutral RSI with memory capex visibility through 2030 create a high-probability 3:1 risk/reward setup above $337.43 resistance.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| rsi | 54.59 | neutral |
| macd | -1.58 | neutral |
| macds | -7.37 | neutral |
| macdh | +5.80 | bullish |
| boll | 306.38 | neutral |
| boll_ub | 346.52 | neutral |
| boll_lb | 266.23 | neutral |
| atr | 22.15 | neutral |
| vwma | 301.38 | bullish |
| close_10_ema | 317.76 | bullish |
| close_50_sma | 337.43 | neutral |
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Controlled pullback to $300–$310
Then: Re-enter trimmed LRCX position at improved entry
↩ rebuts: “Bear treating the pending MACD crossover as if it doesn't exist”
EV: +$50+ (target zone $380-400 from ~$330 entry) · concedes: 50 SMA at $337.43 is overhead resistance; 08-14 candle is a small bearish reversal at resistance; One to two sessions needed for MACD confirmation; Next two earnings prints needed to confirm sustainability of growth trajectory
LRCX presents a asymmetrically bearish setup: the 50 SMA rejection confirms distribution rather than a breakout, cycle-peak margins face mean reversion, capital returns exceed FCF by 2x making EPS growth unsustainable, the Forward PE of 28.8 requires perfect execution, and the macro backdrop (85% no-cut probability) provides no multiple expansion catalyst.
· concedes: The 22M volume day was likely a capitulation flush marking a local bottom; AMAT had run harder than LRCX year-to-date before its pullback; LRCX is a wonderful company in a wonderful structural story
→ vs conservative: The conservative analyst's wait for 'confirmed close above 337.43' and 'bullish MACD crossover' means entering at 340-plus with momentum already locked in, causing the reward-to-risk ratio to collapse since the stop at 317.76 is already 6.5% below current levels with ATR at 22 points. This is 'performance anxiety masquerading as discipline.'
→ vs neutral: The neutral analyst citing the $3 billion R&D lab expansion as a green light ignores that the market is punishing equipment names for merely meeting expectations (AMAT down 5-6% on record revenue, KLA down 9.3%, Amkor down 18%). Neutrality in this tape is a bad position. The analyst also glosses over the macro ceiling from 85% Polymarket pricing of no Fed cuts through 2026 and the $7.25 million high-volume no-cuts bet.
| close_200_sma | 249.30 | bullish |
Support: 337.43 · 317.76 · 306.38 · 301.38 · 266.23 · 249.3 | Resistance: 337.43 · 346.52
LRCX is in a recovery phase following a 42% peak-to-trough drawdown from $433.33 (06-30) to $252.35 (07-29), recovering +31.7% to $332.36. Price sits in a transition zone between the rising 10 EMA support (317.76) and falling 50 SMA resistance (337.43). MACD histogram is expanding positive (+5.80) with a bullish crossover imminent within 1-3 sessions, while RSI at 54.59 offers room for further upside. The 200 SMA at 249.30 confirms the long-term secular uptrend remains intact. Volume on the latest push is declining versus the explosive 22M share volume on 07-30, raising a caution flag. Final recommendation: HOLD awaiting confirmed daily close above 337.43 (50 SMA) with rising volume and MACD bullish crossover confirmation before initiating long positions.
Market Cap
$415.9 B
PE Ratio (TTM)
57.7
Forward PE
28.8
PEG Ratio
1.52
Price to Book
39.3
EPS (TTM)
$5.76
Forward EPS
$11.56
Dividend Yield
0.31%
Beta
1.865
52-Week High
$438.50
52-Week Low
$94.11
50-Day Average
$337.70
200-Day Average
$248.68
Gross Margin (TTM)
~50.5%
Operating Margin
37.4%
Net Profit Margin (TTM)
31.3%
Return on Equity (ROE)
65.1%
Return on Assets (ROA)
22.8%
EBITDA (TTM)
$8.64 B
Cash & Cash Equivalents
$5,579 M
Total Current Assets
$15,611 M
Total Non-Current Assets
$7,919 M
Total Assets
$23,530 M
Long-Term Debt
$3,722 M
Current Debt
$0.1 M
Total Debt
$3,735 M
Stockholders' Equity
$12,471 M
Working Capital
$9,673 M
Current Ratio
2.63
Net Cash Position
$1.84 B
TTM Free Cash Flow
$3.09 B
FCF Margin
~13.3%
Revenue (TTM)
$23.23 B
Q2 FY26 Revenue QoQ Growth
+15.1%
Q2 FY26 EPS YoY Growth
+34%
Q2 FY26 Revenue
$6,722 M
Q2 FY26 Gross Profit
$3,479 M
Q2 FY26 Operating Income
$2,513 M
Q2 FY26 Net Income
$2,277 M
Q2 FY26 Diluted EPS
$1.81
Q1 FY26 Revenue
$5,841 M
Q1 FY26 Diluted EPS
$1.45
Q4 FY25 Revenue
$5,345 M
Q4 FY25 Diluted EPS
$1.26
Q3 FY25 Revenue
$5,324 M
Q3 FY25 Diluted EPS
$1.24
Q2 FY25 Revenue
$5,171 M
Q2 FY25 Diluted EPS
$1.35
Q2 FY26 Operating Cash Flow
$1,457 M
Q2 FY26 CapEx
$189 M
Q2 FY26 Free Cash Flow
$1,268 M
Q1 FY26 Operating Cash Flow
$1,141 M
Q1 FY26 Free Cash Flow
$810 M
Q4 FY25 Operating Cash Flow
$1,480 M
Q4 FY25 Free Cash Flow
$1,219 M
Q3 FY25 Operating Cash Flow
$1,779 M
Q3 FY25 Free Cash Flow
$1,594 M
Q2 FY25 Operating Cash Flow
$2,554 M
Q2 FY25 Free Cash Flow
$2,382 M
Treasury Stock (Jun 2026)
$31.60 B
Treasury Stock (Jun 2025)
$27.76 B
Buybacks (last 5 quarters)
~$5.15 B
Dividends (last 5 quarters)
~$1.60 B
Total Capital Returned (last 5 quarters)
~$6.75 B
Book Value Per Share
$8.46
R&D (Q2 FY26)
$643 M
SG&A (Q2 FY26)
$322 M
Effective Tax Rate (Q2 FY26)
~10.9%
Accounts Receivable (Jun 2026)
$5.34 B
Strengths
Concerns
Lam Research Corporation is a leading global supplier of wafer fabrication equipment to the semiconductor industry, operating across systems (wafer fabrication equipment) and customer support (services, spare parts, upgrades) segments. The company holds a leading market share in plasma etch and deposition/strip technologies essential for AI-driven semiconductor manufacturing including HBM, advanced logic, and EUV adoption. The stock has staged a powerful recovery from its 52-week low of $94.11 to near $332, reflecting AI capex cycle expectations with Forward PE of 28.8 (vs TTM PE of 57.7) implying EPS doubling to $11.56. With a net cash position of $1.84B, best-in-class margins (37.4% operating, 50.5% gross), and aggressive capital returns ($6.75B over 5 quarters), Lam is well-positioned for the AI-driven capex super-cycle though valuation and cyclicality risks warrant attention.
Macro: Fed expected to hold rates flat through 2026 (85% no-cuts probability), US recession odds low (8%), inflation drifting lower toward target; S&P 500 gained amid Fed pause extension; AI capex cycle running hottest in two years; soft USD supports multinationals with global exposure.