Underweight SCHW: Trim 40-50% across $113.50-$115.00 resistance, stop at $107.50, conditional reloads on confirmation
Underweight — trim 40-50% (45% midpoint) scaled across $113.50-$115.00 with partial market on $114.50 rejection, stop residual at $107.50 on daily close, conditional reloads on 2-of-3 confirmation (daily close above 10 EMA with MACD confirmation for downside reload, or close above $114.53 with volume >7M and RSI >76 for upside reload), re-evaluate after Jackson Hole/FOMC and at Q3 2026 earnings where $6.16 EPS run-rate faces 42% growth requirement against consensus $7.80.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Price in $113.50-$115.00 resistance zone | Trim 40-50% of SCHW position, scaled across zone with limit orders |
| Intraday rejection at $114.50 | Partial market execution to capture zone |
| Residual position held | Stop at $107.50 on daily close basis |
SCHW is a mid-cycle compounder with accelerating earnings, fortress liquidity, and optimal macro tailwinds trading at a discount valuation relative to its growth profile, making any technical consolidation a buyable opportunity.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 10 EMA | $110.93 | bullish |
| 50 SMA | $102.09 | bullish |
| 200 SMA | $96.26 | bullish |
| MACD | 2.98 | neutral |
| MACD Signal | 2.95 | neutral |
| MACD Histogram | +0.03 | neutral |
| RSI (14) | 67.14 | neutral |
| Bollinger Upper Band | $114.40 | neutral |
| Bollinger Middle Band (20 SMA) | $108.66 | bullish |
| Bollinger Lower Band | $102.92 | bullish |
| ATR (14) |
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Daily close above $114.53 on volume >7M with RSI new high >76 (not automatic — requires confirmation)
Then: Add to position conditionally
The Advisor Network minimum increase from $2M to $5M is strategic premiumization targeting higher-margin clients, not market cede
EV: +$8-$33 to Street targets of $120-$145; $120+ target · concedes: Acknowledges shooting star candle, flattening MACD histogram, and light volume as real signals; Concedes RSI divergence between Aug 14 high (76.37) and price high ($114.53) is subtle but not confirmed; Accepts stock is near 52-week high; Recognizes near-term technical concerns are valid for a 3-day horizon trader
SCHW is late-cycle in a rate-driven earnings surge that has already been harvested, with technicals rolling over, balance sheet leverage expanding, and a competitive landscape getting tougher by the quarter.
EV: -$102 (50 SMA target, ~9% downside from $112) · concedes: Five consecutive quarters of revenue growth occurred; D/E ratio of 151x is industry standard; Forward P/E of 14.4x is not extremely elevated; India tech hub (2,000 employees by 2027) is a real margin tailwind; If Fed holds rates, NII stays stable (not a catalyst, but not negative)
→ vs conservative: Trend-following and stellar fundamentals were also true at $90, $100, and $120 — question is whether current entry offers asymmetric reward after 34% rally
→ vs conservative: MACD collapse and RSI divergence are not noise but historically precede meaningful pullbacks in financial names
→ vs neutral: Waiting for MACD bearish cross, RSI below 50, or price below 10 EMA at $110.93 means selling $5-7 lower than current trim zone
→ vs neutral: "Just hold" is lazy analysis; trimming into resistance frees capital to attack the next setup with size and lower cost basis
→ vs conservative: Compressed ATR is a coiled spring warning, not a comfort signal — low volatility doesn't persist forever
| 2.01 |
| neutral |
| Recent Close | $112.27 | neutral |
| Aug 25 Volume | 5.05M | bearish |
| Aug 24 Volume | 8.28M | bullish |
Support: 110.93 · 108.66 · 104.93 · 102.92 · 102.09 · 96.26 | Resistance: 114.4 · 114.53
SCHW shows a confirmed bullish uptrend with price trading above all three key moving averages (10 EMA at $110.93, 50 SMA at $102.09, 200 SMA at $96.26) in textbook bullish alignment. However, momentum is decelerating—the MACD histogram has compressed dramatically from a peak of 3.27 in July to near-zero at 0.03, and RSI is forming a subtle bearish divergence (lower highs while price makes higher highs). The Aug 24-25 sessions formed a bearish reversal candle at the upper Bollinger Band, with ATR compressed to 2.01, suggesting an imminent volatility expansion event. The 10 EMA at $110.93 is the critical near-term support level; a daily close below it would invite a deeper test toward $108.66 and potentially the 50 SMA at $102.09. Volume confirmation above $114.53 would be required for a genuine breakout.
Market Cap
$194.15B
P/E (TTM)
20.45x
Forward P/E
14.39x
PEG Ratio
1.13
P/B
4.42x
EPS (TTM)
$5.49
Forward EPS
$7.80
Dividend Yield
1.13%
Beta
0.75
Book Value per Share
$25.42
52-Week High
$114.53
52-Week Low
$83.96
50-Day MA
$101.92
200-Day MA
$96.77
Revenue (TTM)
$26.03B
Net Income (TTM)
$9.72B
Profit Margin
38.79%
Operating Margin
52.28%
ROE
20.27%
ROA
2.07%
Total Revenue Q2 2025
$5.85B
Total Revenue Q3 2025
$6.14B
Total Revenue Q4 2025
$6.34B
Total Revenue Q1 2026
$6.48B
Total Revenue Q2 2026
$7.07B
Net Interest Income Q2 2025
$2.82B
Net Interest Income Q3 2025
$3.05B
Net Interest Income Q4 2025
$3.17B
Net Interest Income Q1 2026
$3.14B
Net Interest Income Q2 2026
$3.36B
Net Income Q2 2025
$2.13B
Net Income Q3 2025
$2.36B
Net Income Q4 2025
$2.46B
Net Income Q1 2026
$2.48B
Net Income Q2 2026
$2.80B
Diluted EPS Q2 2025
$1.08
Diluted EPS Q3 2025
$1.26
Diluted EPS Q4 2025
$1.33
Diluted EPS Q1 2026
$1.37
Diluted EPS Q2 2026
$1.54
Total Assets Q2 2026
$517.27B
Total Assets Q4 2025
$490.99B
Total Equity Q2 2026
$50.15B
Total Debt Q2 2026
$37.35B
Cash & Equivalents Q2 2026
$40.58B
Cash + Fed Funds Sold Q2 2026
$73.59B
Net Loans Q2 2026
$66.99B
Held-to-Maturity Securities Q2 2026
$126.64B
Goodwill + Intangibles Q2 2026
$19.57B
Tangible Book Value Q2 2026
$24.36B
Operating Cash Flow Q2 2025
$3.18B
Operating Cash Flow Q3 2025
$0.54B
Operating Cash Flow Q4 2025
-$0.76B
Operating Cash Flow Q1 2026
$7.34B
Operating Cash Flow Q2 2026
$4.30B
Free Cash Flow Q2 2025
$3.05B
Free Cash Flow Q3 2025
$0.39B
Free Cash Flow Q4 2025
-$0.92B
Free Cash Flow Q1 2026
$7.20B
Free Cash Flow Q2 2026
$4.12B
Share Buybacks Q2 2025
$2.79B
Share Buybacks Q3 2025
$2.75B
Share Buybacks Q4 2025
$2.77B
Share Buybacks Q1 2026
$2.38B
Share Buybacks Q2 2026
$3.05B
Dividends Paid Q2 2025
$0.61B
Dividends Paid Q3 2025
$0.56B
Dividends Paid Q4 2025
$0.56B
Dividends Paid Q1 2026
$0.63B
Dividends Paid Q2 2026
$0.64B
Diluted Share Count Q2 2025
1.82B
Diluted Share Count Q2 2026
1.74B
Debt-to-Equity
151x
Current Ratio
0.66
Strengths
Concerns
BUY-on-dip. SCHW exhibits accelerating earnings with 5 consecutive quarters of revenue growth, Q2 2026 revenue of $7.07B (+20.9% YoY) and EPS of $1.54 (+42.6% YoY) demonstrating strong operating leverage. The valuation is reasonable with a forward P/E of 14.39x against expected ~42% EPS growth and a PEG of 1.13, while the aggressive buyback program (~2.5-3B per quarter) continues to shrink the float. Trading near 52-week highs in a confirmed uptrend above both moving averages, with primary risks being interest rate sensitivity and potential mean-reversion from elevated technical levels.
Macro: Prediction markets confirm a "higher-for-longer" rate environment with 86% probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026 (zero cuts priced), only 8% probability of US recession by year-end, and 0% probability of aggressive easing (6+ cuts). This backdrop is materially supportive of net interest income, Schwab's dominant revenue driver. ECB divergence shows 96% probability of a 25 bp hike at September 2026 meeting. Market structure evolution includes 74% probability of 23-hour trading implementation by December 2026, which could benefit Schwab's retail engagement model. FRED macro data was unavailable for this session.