When: Confirmed close below $258 on >5M volume with MACD line accelerating negative

Then: Downgrade to Underweight with 15-20% trim

When: Any escalation in China tariff rhetoric confirmed by policy action

Then: Immediate Underweight at 25-30% trim

When: Q3 2026 earnings: revenue >$5.5B + GM >60% + book-to-bill >1.0

Then: Upgrade to Overweight - bullish re-rating confirmed

When: Q3 2026 guidance disappointment on industrial/auto

Then: Expand to Underweight regardless of price

SELL (modified with scaled entry, tighter stops, and partial profit-taking)

• 50 SMA peaked near 300 in late July and is actively rejecting price overhead at a 0.16% premium, not confirming reversal
• MACD line remains negative at minus 1.13 despite five sessions of positive histogram
• RSI at 56 has no oversold cushion left; a single weak session could roll it back to 35
• Stop at 283 is 21 points (8%) above 262 entry, too wide for beta 1.31 name with 4-5% single-session moves
• 67% allocation against 8% stop means 5.4% portfolio loss if stopped out
• 200 SMA target at 243 assumes clean retest; worst case structural breakdown could reach 152 from earlier in the year
• TXN trades at 41x trailing earnings; 50bp move in real rates can compress multiple by 4-6 turns
• Forward EPS of $10.64; 4-6 turn multiple compression = $25-40 stock price move from macro alone
• 22-23% implied probability of tariff escalation adds asymmetric downside risk
• Conservative plan: Scale entry to 30-35% on confirmed failure below 50 SMA at 272, add tranche at 266-268 on rollback
• Tighten initial stop to 274 (~4.6%) just above 50 SMA reclaim; wider 281 stop for scaled-in tranche
• First profit target at 252 (lower Bollinger band, 9/4 to 9/11 support shelf), then reassess 200 SMA target
• Hard rule: If 200 SMA breaks, cover immediately rather than chasing breakdown

→ vs neutral: The bullish technical narrative (constructive basing pattern, bullish momentum shift) is overstated—50 SMA is rejecting price, MACD line is still negative at minus 1.13, and calling a setup where the dominant risk aligns with the bearish case as bullish is cognitive dissonance

→ vs aggressive: Stop at 283 (8%) is too wide for a 1.31 beta name that moves 4-5% in single sessions; 67% allocation against this stop creates 5.4% portfolio loss risk on one trade

→ vs aggressive: 200 SMA target at 243 assumes clean retest but worst case could be structural breakdown to 152; the target should be framed as a range with 252 as first trim, not a single destination

→ vs aggressive: Underestimates multiple compression risk—at 41x trailing earnings with $10.64 forward EPS, a 50bp rate move can cause $25-40 stock price move in a single session without any earnings change

SELL with scaled entry (33%-40% initial, 25% add, final tranche in 258-262 zone), stops at 276-277 (initial) and 281 (blended), three-level trim structure at 258-262, 248-252, 244-246

• Price at 272.62 is at a critical knife-edge level where next 1-2 daily closes determine direction
• Technical signals (MACD histogram positive and expanding 5 sessions, RSI at 56 rising from 36) are real and shouldn't be dismissed
• Aggressive Analyst's 67% entry allocation at unconfirmed thesis is too aggressive; 283 stop is too wide
• Conservative Analyst's first trim at 252 (4% below current) is within normal noise for beta 1.3, ATR 8.76 name; 274 stop is too tight
• Cycle bottom thesis has hard evidence: Q2 2026 revenue grew 13.2% sequentially for 5 consecutive quarters, FCF recovered from 555M to 2.19B, gross margin at 61.4%
• SOX rallied 4 consecutive sessions; TXN is major SOX constituent and sector beta could squeeze shorts before macro thesis plays out
• Multiple compression thesis is a slow burn, not imminent event, per macro report
• Tariff escalation risk at 22%-23% implied probability (25%-35% band) requires hard cover rule, not a position to hold through
• If price reclaims 283 on heavy volume with 200 SMA rising above 250, take loss and wait for next setup
• Initial tranche trigger: confirmed daily close below 272; exit trigger: reclaim 274.50 on volume and hold 2 sessions
• Add second tranche (25%) if price rolls below 268 with lower high formation
• First trim at 258-262 (recent support shelf where buyers showed up twice), second trim at 248-252 (lower Bollinger band, September low zone), final cover at 244-246 (above where 200 SMA will be)

→ vs aggressive: 67% initial allocation at 262 is too aggressive for unconfirmed thesis at knife-edge level (272.62); paying full price for discounted outcome, not asymmetry

→ vs aggressive: 283 stop is too wide for the risk budget appropriate to an unconfirmed thesis

→ vs aggressive: Dismissal of constructive technical signals (MACD positive 5 sessions, RSI 56 from 36) is intellectually inconsistent with acknowledging bearish structural case

→ vs conservative: First trim at 252 is only 4% below current, which is within normal noise for beta 1.3 name with ATR 8.76; will get stopped out at 274 before 252 becomes relevant

→ vs conservative: Hard rule to cover on 200 SMA break doesn't distinguish between clean break (cover) and successful retest (high-probability re-entry for shorts with tighter stop)

→ vs conservative: Fails to engage with cycle recovery data (5 consecutive quarters growth, FCF 555M to 2.19B, gross margin 61.4%)

→ vs conservative: 274 stop is too tight for a meaningful position; initial tranche stop should be 276-277 (5%-5.5%)