When: 10Y sustained below 4.0% with Fed dovish pivot

Then: Re-engage with full position

HOLD with reduced sizing (25% initial), tightened stop at $183.37, reserve capital for confirmation above $200

• Current price $193.40 is only $0.67 above the declining 200 SMA, not a confirmed breakout
• MACD histogram decelerated 77% from peak of +4.58 in late July to current +1.06
• ATR expanded to $9.24 indicating elevated daily volatility regime
• Forward P/E of 12.1x is cheap due to earnings risk from 10Y yields at multi-decade highs and 96% probability of no Fed cuts in 2026
• $8.3 billion capital return plan provides no near-term stock price support
• $22.5 billion goodwill at 35% of assets represents impairment exposure if AI compresses human-led consulting market
• Current stop at $178 is below the technical invalidation level at $183.37 gap fill and 50 SMA at $181.84
• Adding at $183-$185 zone contradicts the plan as it means adding precisely where technical case is failing
• Dividend yield of 3.5% available while waiting for confirmation
• Clean close above $200 with fresh MACD histogram expansion is the identified confirmation trigger

→ vs aggressive: Technical breakout not confirmed - price at $193.40 is 67 cents above declining 200 SMA, and the neutral technical report explicitly says to avoid initiating longs until sustained close above $200 with MACD histogram expansion

→ vs aggressive: Buying into fading momentum - MACD histogram decelerated 77% from +4.58 to +1.06 in ten weeks, a classic post-event cool-off pattern indicating gap up on October 1 is being digested, not a new leg up

→ vs aggressive: Valuation multiple is cheap for legitimate reasons including macro headwinds and earnings risk, not a coiled spring ready to fire; Polymarket shows no-cut probability fell only 0.5 percentage points week-over-week, not a regime change

→ vs aggressive: $8.3 billion capital return is paid over time and does not put a bid under the stock on any given day; downside floor not established in multiple compression scenario with re-test of $167 or $150 possible

→ vs aggressive: $22.5 billion goodwill is a liability in hawkish macro with higher discount rates mechanically increasing impairment probability for human-led consulting business exposed to AI disruption

→ vs aggressive: Stop at $178 is not technically meaningful - the actual invalidation is at $183.37 gap fill and $181.84 50 SMA; current structure tolerates 7-8% loss before getting out

→ vs aggressive: Plan to add at $183-$185 means adding precisely where the technical case is already failing, averaging into a broken setup rather than scaling into strength

→ vs neutral: Aggressive plan contradicts the neutral technical report's explicit recommendation to wait for confirmation above $200

Initiate 35% position at $193; add 35% on successful 200 SMA retest at $190-$195; add 30% on breakout above $200 with MACD histogram expansion above +1.5 and RSI above 55; stop at $183 on daily close below

• 200 SMA flattening from $215 to $192 is neutral, not bullish - price $1.67 above average with no confirmed directional change
• MACD histogram peaked at +4.58 in late July, now +1.06 - a 77% collapse in 10 weeks - momentum is decelerating, not confirmed
• MACD line still positive at +3.77, but histogram is the leading indicator and will follow the deceleration
• Absence of news is not insulation in hawkish macro with 10Y at 2002 highs - stock is unanchored from both downside AND upside catalysts
• $8.3B annual buybacks and dividends provide soft floor, but capital return weakens during multiple compression when buybacks pause
• 12x forward earnings is cheap for 26% ROE franchise, but cheap because market is pricing in unconfirmed earnings risk
• Multiple re-rating from 12x to 16x requires either earnings above consensus or rates rolling over - neither has clear catalyst in 2-3 months
• ATR of $9.24 makes gap risk real - stops get skipped in volatile names, tighter stops are more vulnerable
• Waiting for confirmation above $200 sacrifices $4-8 per share of entry advantage on violent breakouts
• 25% sizing treats a 26% ROE, 139% FCF conversion, 3.51% yield franchise as speculative rather than high-conviction long
• Goodwill impairment risk is tail risk, not imminent - $10.9B annual FCF generation demonstrates capital returns well above cost of capital

→ vs aggressive: MACD histogram collapse of 77% in 10 weeks contradicts momentum-confirmed breakout thesis - histogram is leading indicator and will drag line lower

→ vs aggressive: No news catalyst does not insulate from macro risk - stock trades on flows dominated by hostile macro, long without backstop, not protected

→ vs aggressive: Capital return of $8.3B annual buybacks and dividends is soft floor that weakens when needed most - buybacks pause on price decline

→ vs conservative: $183 stop is more vulnerable to gap risk given ATR of $9.24 - overnight gap through stop level results in execution at $178 or worse

→ vs conservative: Waiting for confirmation above $200 costs $4-8 per share of entry advantage on a name with limited expected return at 12x earnings

→ vs conservative: 25% sizing leaves too much upside on table for best-in-class franchise - quarter size is inappropriate for high-conviction long

→ vs conservative: Goodwill impairment risk is tail risk not supported by financial statements - $10.9B FCF generation shows capital returns above cost of capital