The 200 SMA at $193.54 has been decisively broken, not 'tested'.

• RTX closed at $189.40 on 2026-09-25
• Price sitting $4 below the 200 SMA
• 200 SMA reclaim is 'the trigger for confirmation' — the bull admits the trend is broken

↩ rebuts: “Bull claims the 200 SMA is being 'tested'”

RSI collapse from 76 to 27 in 30 sessions marks capitulation in progress, not a bottom.

• RSI collapsed from 76 to 27
• 49-point RSI collapse in 30 sessions
• Current RSI: 29.34

↩ rebuts: “Bull calls RSI collapse a 'violent momentum washout' marking a bottom”

Bollinger Band compression with price below the lower band is a broken chart signal, not a coiled spring.

• ATR compressed 28%
• Price is below the lower band
• Base rates show coils at lower band in confirmed downtrend resolve to downside more often than upside

↩ rebuts: “Bull claims compression indicates coiled energy for upside resolution”

Back-to-back failed bounces at $190 in three sessions show resistance forming.

• 2026-09-22: bounced to $190.99 from $187.04, then failed
• 2026-09-24: bounced to $188.61 from $188.50, then failed again

↩ rebuts: “Bull did not address failed bounces”

The stock fell 16% on record Q2 results — the market is telling us future earnings trajectory matters, not past results.

• Q2 2026 revenue: $24.71B (record)
• EPS: $1.57 (up 28.7% YoY)
• Stock fell 16% on that news
• Forward EPS estimate: $7.85
• Requires ~38% earnings growth in 12 months

↩ rebuts: “Bull calls Q2 'a record quarter with strong fundamentals'”

Forward P/E of 24× is expensive given execution requirements. Even small misses cause significant multiple compression.

• Forward P/E: 24×
• At $7.50 EPS instead of $7.85: multiple becomes 25.3×
• At $7.00 EPS: multiple becomes 27.1×
• PEG of 2.19 prices in execution perfection

↩ rebuts: “Bull pivots to forward P/E of 24× as 'reasonable' after dismissing TTM P/E of 33×”

Operating margin expansion has captured most of the easy gains. The 530 bps expansion was driven by one-time factors.

• Operating margin went from 5.17% (2023) to 10.50% (2025)
• 530 bps expansion came from: post-pandemic commercial aerospace recovery (one-time), defense mix shift (one-time), cost-out programs (one-time), GTF aftermarket ramp (early innings)

↩ rebuts: “Bull calls margin expansion 'runway'”

Management is paying down cheap debt at 4-5% interest rates while stock trades at 24× forward P/E (earnings yield ~4.2%). This is value-destructive capital allocation.

• FCF went from $4.72B (2023) to $7.45B (2025)
• $38.86B of debt at 4-5% interest rates
• Paid down $4.7B in 12 months
• Forward P/E of 24× implies earnings yield of ~4.2%

↩ rebuts: “Bull says 'deleveraging unlocks buybacks by 2027'”

The $289B backlog is misleadingly framed. Backlog ≠ profit, conversion is slow, and it embeds execution risk.

• $289B backlog vs $93.5B TTM revenue (~3× annual revenue)
• Full conversion takes 3+ years if delivery schedules hold
• Bernstein's PT cut on September 24 specifically questioned backlog-to-revenue conversion economics
• Much of backlog is at fixed-price terms compressing margins in inflationary environments

↩ rebuts: “Bull calls backlog 'multi-year visibility that almost no industrial on Earth can match'”

GTF Advantage delivery is symbolic, not a near-term financial catalyst. Aftermarket revenue impact is 2-3 years out.

• Pratt delivered first GTF Advantage-powered A321XLR to United
• Symbolic event telegraphed for months
• Aftermarket revenue ramp won't materially impact financials for 2-3 years

↩ rebuts: “Bull treats GTF Advantage delivery as a significant catalyst”

Xcimer fusion-laser partnership is speculative padding with zero near-term revenue impact.

• Directed-energy weapons still in early development
• Pentagon procurement years away
• No impact on RTX's 2026 or 2027 earnings

↩ rebuts: “Bull calls Xcimer partnership 'a credible position in directed-energy weapons'”

Defense munitions restock is sector-level, not stock-specific. RTX is down 16% alongside the defense complex, not outperforming peers.

• RTX down 16% from August highs
• Alongside LMT, NOC, GD in the defense complex
• Munitions restock story is priced in across the sector

↩ rebuts: “Bull cites munitions restock as an RTX-specific catalyst”

Defense stocks with long-duration cash flows are being repriced in a high-rate regime. The 0.29 beta is backward-looking.

• 10Y at 2007 highs
• 97% no-cut probability per Polymarket
• Term premium repricing
• RTX is down 16% from its August high
• 0.29 beta reflects past regime, not current one

↩ rebuts: “Bull claims 0.29 beta means RTX is 'defensive'”

RTX at 24× forward P/E is expensive vs. peers. Industrial peers trade at 15-18×, defense peers at 18-22×.

• TTM P/E: 33×
• Forward P/E: 24×
• Industrial peers: 15-18× forward earnings
• Defense peers (LMT, NOC): 18-22×
• FCF yield: 3.53% ($9B FCF / $255B market cap)
• FCF yield should be 4%+ for quality compounders with similar risk profiles
• PEG: 2.19

↩ rebuts: “Bull says forward P/E of 24× is reasonable for a compounder”

The bull recommends buying at $189 while his own technical report says the trend reversal trigger requires closing above $193.54. Maximum loss before confirmation is ~2%, but next support is 52-week low at $155.64 — 17% below current price.

• Bull recommends 'BUY on dips to $185-$190'
• Bull's own report says trend reversal trigger is close above $193.54
• Maximum loss before confirmation: ~$4 per share (~2%)
• 52-week low: $155.64
• 17% below current price
• Upside to prior high: 19%
• Risk/reward: roughly 1:1 (17% downside vs. 19% upside)

↩ rebuts: “Bull recommends buying at $185-$190 as attractive entry”

Zero retail discussion on Reddit during a 16% drawdown means no contrarian bid to absorb institutional selling.

• Zero posts mentioning RTX across r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks, and r/investing
• $250B market cap defense prime generating zero retail discussion during 16% drawdown

↩ rebuts: “Bull did not address sentiment data”

Bernstein's PT cut on September 24 is a directional signal. When multiple analysts cut simultaneously, they're responding to the same underlying signal.

• Bernstein's PT cut on September 24
• Questioned backlog-to-revenue conversion economics
• Sell-side PT cuts cluster for a reason

↩ rebuts: “Bull calls Bernstein cut a 'lagging indicator'”

Bear target levels: Initial downside $175-$180 (prior consolidation zone), major downside $155-$165 (52-week low retest). Bull case invalidation requires daily close above $193.54 with rising RSI and positive MACD histogram — not yet present.

• Initial downside: $175-$180
• Major downside: $155-$165
• 200 SMA: $193.54
• Bull case invalidation: daily close above $193.54 with rising RSI and positive MACD histogram cross — not yet present