Trim GS 25-30% at $1,058; re-evaluate on close above $1,071 with volume/MACD confirmation or capitulation to $937-$980 zone
Underweight rating with 25-30% trim at $1,058 is appropriately calibrated: the $980 hard invalidation and $937 structural exit define tight risk parameters, while the franchise thesis and $5B buyback floor preserve optionality for residual position. Passive Hold risks continued rangebound drift against benchmark while bear catalysts accumulate; the Q2 2026 earnings serve as primary resolution event.
| Position | Action |
|---|---|
| Current position at $1,058 with 2:1 risk/reward (5% upside to $1,100/$1,125 vs. 12% downside to 200 SMA at $937) | Trim 25-30% of GS exposure |
| Hard invalidation: close below $980 (July swing low) on volume | Exit remaining core position |
| Structural exit trigger: sustained break below $937 (200 SMA) | Full position exit |
Goldman Sachs's structural transformation toward fee-based private markets revenue, doubling net interest income, and disciplined capital return creates a compelling buy case at 14.30x forward P/E in a higher-for-longer macro environment perfectly suited for its capital markets franchise.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 200 SMA | 934.07 | bullish |
| 50 SMA | 1,053.32 | bullish |
| 10 EMA | 1,038.03 | bullish |
| MACD | -2.83 | bullish |
| MACD Signal | -4.28 | bullish |
| MACD Histogram | +1.45 | bullish |
| RSI | 54.18 | neutral |
| Bollinger Upper Band | 1,070.97 | neutral |
| Bollinger Middle Band | 1,033.73 | neutral |
| Bollinger Lower Band | 996.49 | neutral |
| ATR | 28.62 |
This report is AI-generated for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer.
When: Capitulation to $937-$980 zone with RSI<35 and constructive MACD divergence
Then: Consider re-engagement with defined exit below $937
The coiling technical pattern signals an imminent breakout higher
EV: +$1,100 (first target), +$1,125 (second target, June swing high) · concedes: Beta 1.29 amplifies drawdowns — true, but this is a feature for momentum trades in supportive macro, not a bug for a defensive hold; YSS price target slashed 50%; SEC subpoena is bear's strongest card and GS has unique exposure that would be thesis-breaking if material; Range-bound price action has persisted
GS appears to be a HOLD at current levels—the "structural transformation" narrative is actually a decelerating recovery off a 2023 trough, the technical setup is unconfirmed with the stock trapped in resistance, and the balance sheet expansion with flat equity creates meaningful downside risk if macro conditions deteriorate.
· concedes: 2025 EPS growth was real and represented return to normalized earnings after legitimate 2023 trough; 2025 operating margin of 42% is genuinely improved; CET1 ratios remain above regulatory minimums; GS brand and franchise dominance is real and provides some moat; Current price is not at 52-week high ($1,153.99), offering some downside protection from peak levels
→ vs conservative: Quality-at-reasonable-multiple thesis ignores near-term deceleration (Q1 revenue -11% sequential, net income below year-ago), balance sheet leverage expansion ($250B in one quarter), and sticky comp costs creating negative operating leverage on any revenue weakness
→ vs neutral: Wait-for-$1,071-breakout approach buys at resistance into upper Bollinger band where mean-reversion risk is highest; MACD fakeouts common after V-shaped recovery; no margin of safety at that entry point
→ vs conservative: SEC subpoena dismissal as 'industry-wide, contained' ignores that this targets prime brokerage (Global Banking & Markets crown jewel) and raises franchise-integrity questions specific to GS's core institutional client relationships
→ vs neutral: Holding full position into $996 breakdown destroys capital; the trim is capital preservation for higher-probability re-entry, not capitulation
| neutral |
Support: 1053.32 · 1033.73 · 996.49 · 980.75 | Resistance: 1070.97 · 1100 · 1125
Technical structure is constructive but unconfirmed — all three moving averages are bullishly stacked with price 13.3% above the 200 SMA, a fresh MACD bullish cross has just triggered, and RSI at 54.18 has room to run before overbought conditions. Volatility has compressed (ATR 28.62 down from 39.4 peak), forming a coiled pattern that typically resolves directionally. Price is wedged between the 50 SMA pivot ($1,053) acting as support and the Bollinger upper band ($1,071) as immediate resistance, making this a range market until a confirmed breakout occurs. Recommendation is HOLD; add on daily close above $1,071 with above-average volume; reduce/exit on close below $1,033.
Market Cap
$308.32B
Share Price (Implied)
~$1,060
52-Week High
$1,153.99
52-Week Low
$721.16
50-Day Moving Avg
$1,053.39
200-Day Moving Avg
$937.59
P/E (TTM)
16.35x
Forward P/E
14.30x
PEG Ratio
1.47
Price / Book
2.92x
EPS (TTM)
$64.77
Forward EPS
$74.03
Dividend Yield
1.93%
Beta
1.288
2025 Total Revenue
$58.28B
2025 Net Income
$17.18B
2025 Diluted EPS
$51.32
2025 Net Interest Income
$13.56B
2025 Pretax Income
$21.85B
2025 Tax Provision
$4.68B
2025 Effective Tax Rate
21.4%
2025 Compensation / Salaries
$18.91B
2024 Total Revenue
$53.51B
2024 Net Income
$14.28B
2024 Diluted EPS
$40.54
2024 Net Interest Income
$8.06B
2023 Total Revenue
$46.25B
2023 Net Income
$8.52B
2023 Diluted EPS
$22.87
2023 Net Interest Income
$6.35B
2022 Total Revenue
$47.37B
2022 Net Income
$11.26B
2022 Diluted EPS
$30.06
2022 Net Interest Income
$7.68B
Profit Margin
31.04%
Operating Margin
42.18%
Return on Equity (ROE)
16.90%
Return on Assets (ROA)
1.07%
Book Value / Share
$362.05
Total Assets
$2,060.18B
Cash & Equivalents
$179.53B
Trading Securities
$512.66B
Available-for-Sale Securities
$158.53B
Held-to-Maturity Securities
$63.64B
Accounts Receivable
$209.48B
Net Loans
$252.85B
Goodwill & Intangibles
$7.52B
Total Liabilities
$1,937.40B
Long-Term Debt
$326.47B
Current Debt
$106.17B
Derivative Liabilities
$90.20B
Payables & Accrued Expenses
$297.13B
Total Stockholders' Equity
$122.78B
Common Equity
$109.08B
Preferred Equity
$13.70B
Net Debt
$253.11B
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
~725%
Equity / Total Assets
5.96%
Q1 2026 Revenue
$13.45B
Q1 2026 Net Income
$4.62B
Q1 2026 Diluted EPS
$17.55
Q1 2026 Net Interest Income
$3.56B
Q1 2026 Interest Income
$20.64B
Q1 2026 Interest Expense
$17.08B
Q1 2026 Salaries
$5.41B
Q1 2026 Pre-tax Income Margin
36.7%
Q1 2026 Effective Tax Rate
~13.2%
Q1 2026 Operating CF
-$31.87B
Q1 2026 Free Cash Flow
-$32.43B
Q1 2026 CapEx
-$0.57B
Q1 2026 Buybacks
$6.45B
FY 2025 Operating CF
-$45.15B
FY 2025 Free Cash Flow
-$47.22B
FY 2025 CapEx
-$2.06B
FY 2025 Dividends
$5.28B
FY 2025 Buybacks
$12.36B
FY 2024 Operating CF
-$13.21B
FY 2024 Free Cash Flow
-$15.30B
FY 2024 CapEx
-$2.09B
FY 2024 Dividends
$4.50B
FY 2024 Buybacks
$10.20B
FY 2023 Operating CF
-$12.59B
FY 2023 Free Cash Flow
-$14.90B
FY 2023 CapEx
-$2.32B
FY 2023 Dividends
$4.19B
FY 2023 Buybacks
$6.80B
FY 2022 Operating CF
$8.71B
FY 2022 Free Cash Flow
$4.96B
FY 2022 CapEx
-$3.75B
FY 2022 Dividends
$3.68B
FY 2022 Buybacks
$3.50B
Diluted Share Count (2022)
358M
Diluted Share Count (Q1 2026)
~305M
Q4 2025 Revenue
$15.18B
Q4 2025 Net Income
$4.10B
Q4 2025 Diluted EPS
$14.01
Q4 2025 Net Interest Income
$3.71B
Q3 2025 Revenue
$14.58B
Q3 2025 Net Income
$3.72B
Q3 2025 Diluted EPS
$12.25
Q3 2025 Net Interest Income
$3.85B
Q2 2025 Revenue
$15.06B
Q2 2025 Net Income
$4.74B
Q2 2025 Diluted EPS
$10.91
Q2 2025 Net Interest Income
$3.10B
Q1 2025 Revenue
$13.45B
Q1 2025 Net Income
$4.74B
Q1 2025 Net Interest Income
$2.90B
Total Shareholder Return (2025)
$17.6B
2025 Special Charges
$399M
Treasury Stock
$125.9B
Strengths
Concerns
Fundamental Score: BUY. Goldman Sachs is executing well on a multi-year strategy with net interest income structurally expanding from $6.35B to $13.56B, aggressive capital returns of $17.6B in 2025, and EPS compounding strongly at 26.6% YoY to $51.32. The stock trades at a reasonable 14.3x forward P/E with 16.9% ROE and 31% profit margins, offering attractive risk/reward given the strong earnings momentum and continued buyback-driven EPS accretion, though the 1.29 beta and high leverage warrant modest position sizing relative to non-financial holdings.
Macro: Prediction markets price a hawkish "higher for longer" Fed regime: 1% chance of Fed cut by Sept 2026 (+0.5pp WoW), 5% by Oct 2026 (+0.8pp WoW), 12% by Dec 2026 (-1.0pp WoW). US recession odds by year-end 2026 are just 8% (+1.0pp WoW). This backdrop is supportive of GS's capital-markets, IB advisory, and trading businesses, while elevated long-end yields persist — GS strategists argue Treasury buybacks won't cap long rates.