When: Price reaches $512 (50 SMA)

Then: Limit sell remaining ~1/3 of position

When: Confirmed 50 SMA reclaim with RSI holding >50 for 3 sessions

Then: Re-evaluate for partial re-entry

When: Capitulation close below $429 with RSI <30 and elevated volume

Then: Re-evaluate for re-entry

When: 4-6 week base in $430-470 with declining volume

Then: Time-based re-entry alternative

SELL (trim 50-70% immediately at market, set stops at 1.5x ATR, use time-based re-entry rather than price/MACD/RSI triggers)

• AMD trades 47.9% above its 200-day moving average, indicating unhealthy technical posture
• Forward P/E of 30.7x and trailing P/E of 121.6x show significant multiple expansion ahead of earnings
• Beta of 2.49 creates high volatility exposure in adverse macro conditions
• 86% probability of no Fed cuts through year-end per Polymarket
• Rising yields already pressuring long-duration growth names
• Proposed entry at $484 (10 EMA) and stop at $463 equals only 4.4% buffer below entry
• ATR at 34.84 means AMD's average daily range exceeds the proposed stop distance
• Re-engagement trigger above $512 requiring MACD positive, RSI above 55, and 38% reclaim is too restrictive and will likely miss rallies
• Buyback trigger below $429 with RSI under 30 risks catching falling knives—conservative managers use time-based re-entry instead
• Inventory up 27% year-over-year is the most reliable early indicator of demand softening or channel stuffing
• CapEx roughly tripling signals AMD betting aggressively on capacity that may not have demand
• Stock-based compensation at $2 billion annual clip represents real economic dilution understated by headline EPS
• Customer concentration on hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) creates leveraged exposure to capex moderation
• Trefis warning about accelerator gross margins running below corporate average is a structural concern
• Trim 50-70% (not 30-40%), execute at market immediately, set stop at 1.5x ATR, require multi-week confirmation before rebuilding

→ vs aggressive: The 30-40% trim is insufficient; with beta 2.49, trailing P/E 121.6x, 47.9% above 200-day MA, and an 86% probability of no Fed cuts, this is not the environment to maintain anything close to benchmark weight

→ vs aggressive: The re-engagement framework (buyback above $512 with MACD positive and RSI above 55) rarely fires because bottoms form in chop and grind, not clean technical levels—conservative managers know this and use time-based re-entry instead

→ vs neutral: The buyback below $429 with RSI under 30 and volume scaling risks catching falling knives; by the time RSI hits 30 and volume spikes, you cannot reliably distinguish a tradable low from a regime breakdown in real time

HOLD

• Recommended trim size: 35-45% of overweight position (middle ground between aggressive 25% and conservative 50-70%)
• Staged execution: one-third of trim at market now, remainder as limit orders at $484 and $512
• Stop loss widened to $440 (approximately 1.8 ATR), below lower Bollinger band at $434 and July swing low at $429
• Upside re-engagement: price reclaiming 50 SMA at $512 with RSI holding above 50 for at least three sessions
• Downside re-engagement: $429 level with RSI below 35 and volume climax, or time-based at $430-$470 range for 4-6 weeks with declining volume
• Fundamental support: 50% revenue growth, 53.8% gross margins, $13.1B cash, $8.8B trailing FCF
• Key risks: CPI event, Fed 86% likely to stay restrictive, rising yields, AMD beta of 2.49 amplifies macro headwinds
• Diversification: redeploy trimmed capital to AI ecosystem (Broadcom, Nvidia ecosystem via AVGO) rather than market-timing AMD
• Critical levels: $484 and $512 as trim points, $434 lower Bollinger band, $429 July swing low as structural breakdown trigger
• Anthropic catalyst and 2027 data center commentary cited as institutional conviction reinforcement

→ vs aggressive: Overconfident that $484 and $512 will be tested before continued decline; MACD still falling with 50 SMA rolling over means stock could drift to $434 without giving clean entry at those levels

→ vs aggressive: Re-engagement criteria above $512 requiring MACD positive AND RSI above 55 simultaneously is a 'multi-confirmation trap' unlikely to fire cleanly

→ vs conservative: 50-70% trim on accelerating growth name is 'abandonment of thesis dressed up in risk management language' given 50% revenue growth, $13B cash, and intact AI thesis

→ vs conservative: Call to execute trim immediately at market is flawed—AMD below three resistance layers with bearish momentum; should wait for relief rally into $484 rather than selling into pressure

→ vs conservative: Dismissal of all price-based re-engagement triggers as 'catching falling knives' ignores that waiting for 'multi-week confirmation' risks missing 40% rallies on catalysts like Anthropic announcement

→ vs conservative: Macro headwinds are being overweighted to the point of treating AMD like it's structurally impaired when fundamentals show fortress balance sheet and accelerating revenue