When: Pullback to $580-600 zone with RSI reset toward 50-55 AND MACD histogram still positive

Then: Re-enter 50% on first daily close back above 10 EMA at $617

When: Sideways consolidation 3-4 weeks in $620-650 range with RSI working off through time

Then: Re-enter 25% of trimmed size at end of consolidation with tight stop at $600

When: None of the three conditions trigger within 6 weeks

Then: Accept structurally underweight; re-evaluate thesis at structural reassessment

60-75% trim at current levels, tighter stop discipline on residual position, no leveraged re-entry under any circumstance, condition-based reload criteria, cash in short duration paper at 5%+ yield until setup changes.

• Beta at 2.45
• Upper Bollinger at 690 versus lower band at 472
• Six percent upside to upper Bollinger at 690 versus twenty-seven percent downside to lower band at 472
• Ten year at multi-decade highs
• Ninety-six percent probability of zero Fed cuts in 2026
• A ten percent market drawdown is roughly twenty-four and a half percent move in AMD
• Stop at 605 is six and a half percent below entry
• ATR of twenty-four dollars
• Stop should be no lower than ten EMA at 617
• If RSI breaks down through sixty-five with MACD histogram crossing negative, exit the residual that day
• RSI back below fifty with MACD histogram re-expanding from near zero as re-entry condition
• Pullback that holds the fifty SMA at 518 on declining volume with a higher low formation on the daily chart as re-entry condition
• Thirteen billion in cash
• Fifty percent revenue growth
• Five consecutive quarters of operating leverage
• Short duration paper at five plus percent

→ vs aggressive: Thirty to fifty percent trim is a half-measure dressed up as decisive action - keeping fifty to seventy percent exposed to the twenty-seven percent tail risk is not protecting assets

→ vs aggressive: Leveraged re-entry at 581 or 518 is not risk management but panic-buying a dip with the same macro headwind still in place - the ten year does not reset, the Fed does not suddenly cut, and the China export risk does not resolve because AMD is ten percent cheaper

→ vs neutral: Hedging into this setup pays for insurance that probably will not pay out - in a true risk-off rotation correlations spike and TLT hedge may move sideways or down while AMD gets crushed, leaving you paying time decay to hold a position you should be reducing

Trim 40-50% at current levels; hedge residual 50% with defined-risk same-name option collar; stop at 613 on closing prints with momentum-based early exit; re-enter per three explicit conditional triggers within 4-6 weeks; no leverage on re-entry; hold cash in short duration at 5%.

• Trim 40-50% of position at current levels to preserve meaningful exposure while reducing risk
• On residual 50%, sell call at 700-710 (above upper Bollinger at 690) and buy put at 580-590 to create defined-risk collar; can often be structured for little to no net cost in high IV environment
• Stop at 613 (1.5x ATR below entry) on closing prints only, not wicks; override with RSI breaking below 65 while MACD histogram crosses negative
• Re-entry trigger 1: AMD beats and raises at earnings with MACD histogram re-expanding → re-enter 50% of trimmed size within 5 trading days
• Re-entry trigger 2: Pullback to 580-600 zone with RSI resetting toward 50 and MACD histogram still positive but compressed → re-enter 50% on first daily close above 10 EMA at 617
• Re-entry trigger 3: AMD grinds sideways for 3-4 weeks → re-enter 25% at end of consolidation with tight stop
• No leverage on re-entry under any circumstance
• Hold trimmed cash in short duration paper at 5% while waiting for re-entry conditions
• Technical indicators show intact uptrend: 50 SMA rising from 498 to 518, 200 SMA climbing from 283 to 379, price above VWMA by $43 on rising volume, MACD still positive at 36.49
• RSI at 72 is overbought but in persistent 65-74 range for 2.5 weeks, representing deceleration not momentum collapse

→ vs aggressive: Levered re-entry at 581 or 518 doubles down on the same macro overhang (rates at 2002 highs, Fed not cutting, ten-year can gap through stops overnight); institutions are accumulating on rising volume, trend still structurally intact on all moving averages and volume indicators

→ vs conservative: Selling 60-75% of a structural winner leading the Nasdaq on AI capex cycle with 5 consecutive quarters margin expansion and doubled cash position is a directional bet against the leader framed as defense; RSI below 50 condition may never trigger in grinding bull regime, resulting in permanent underweight