When: Confirmed daily close above $231.21 with RSI >65 AND volume >250M shares; within 5-10 sessions

Then: Execute 1/3 secondary tranche on breakout confirmation

When: Confirmed breakout above $236.54 (multi-month high) with volume >300M

Then: Execute final 1/3 tranche on sustained breakout

When: Neither primary nor secondary zones materialize within catalyst window; price consolidates $225-235

Then: Execute partial add at spot capped at 33% of full Overweight allocation

When: Daily close below $213 (2x ATR from $228)

Then: Close position - invalidates breakout thesis

When: Daily close below $195.68 on meaningful volume (200 SMA structural break)

Then: Full thesis review; Underweight response sized at 20-25% per Aug 21 beta-sizing lesson

When: Price clears $240

Then: Trail stop to breakeven

HOLD - maintain core position, do not add at current levels, wait for defined entry zones ($213-$220 or breakout above $231.21), trim into $235-$240 resistance

• Keep RSI greater than 65 confirmation filter for breakout entries to prevent chasing false breakouts in high-beta (2.22) name
• 42% Polymarket probability of rate hike is not a tail risk; 25bp hike would compress multiples on 29x trailing P/E
• Inventory grew 128% YoY against 85% revenue growth and 20% sequential - the gap is a cyclical warning signal, not just Blackwell ramp preparation
• 65% growth on $216 billion base has rate-of-change risk; market prices marginal deceleration, not absolute magnitude
• Trim at $235-$240 resistance ($236.26 multi-month high) is disciplined risk management, not thesis abandonment
• 8% S&P 500 weight creates fragility through forced selling pressure in selloffs, not a bullish signal
• Current 0.56 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio at $228.45 (downside ~$20, upside to $240 ~$11) is unfavorable; wait for entry zones to restore asymmetry

→ vs aggressive: Drops or weakens RSI greater than 65 confirmation on breakout entry - conservative argues this filter prevents chasing momentum extensions into the upper Bollinger Band at $231.21 and beyond

→ vs aggressive: Treats 42% Polymarket-implied rate hike probability as a risk event rather than fundamental deterioration - conservative argues a hike would compress multiples on 29x trailing P/E, translating to hundreds of billions in market cap evaporation

→ vs aggressive: Dismisses inventory build as non-existential given cash flow - conservative argues the 128% YoY growth against 85% revenue growth is a leading indicator of cyclical top, not just preparation for Blackwell ramp

→ vs aggressive: Suggests 65% growth on $216 billion base is impressive in absolute terms - conservative argues rate of change in growth matters more for forward returns than absolute level

→ vs aggressive: Argues trimming 10-15% at $235-$240 surrenders upside - conservative argues trim is risk management, not permanent sale, and holding into resistance without hedging is uncompensated concentration risk

→ vs aggressive: Claims 8% S&P 500 weight cuts both ways - conservative argues concentration creates fragility through mechanically tied forced selling pressure in selloffs, not a bullish signal

Maintain HOLD on core position unchanged. Do not add at 228. Wait for either 213-220 pullback for primary tranche or confirmed breakout above 231.21 with RSI above 65 for secondary add. At 235-240 zone, trim only tactical tranches added at breakout and 213-220 zone, not the original core. Consider 5-10 percent of position in protective puts as hedge.

• Beta is 2.22; false breakouts common at upper Bollinger Band
• Market pricing 56 percent for hold, versus conservative's 42 percent Fed hike assumption
• Q1 FY27 revenue accelerating 20 percent sequentially and 85 percent year over year contradicts deceleration thesis
• Inventory at 128 percent growth versus revenue 85 percent is yellow flag but likely supply-constrained rational build for Blackwell ramp
• Risk-reward on new capital at current levels is unfavorable at 0.56 to 1
• Concentration at 8 percent of S&P 500 warrants slightly underweight sizing to limit drawdown exposure
• RSI confirmation filter (greater than 65) should remain intact on breakout entries
• Tactical trim at 235-240 zone should target only recently added tranches, not core position

→ vs aggressive: Too cavalier about dropping the RSI confirmation filter and dismissing concentration risk; in a high-beta name, multiple confirmation filters are essential, not a flaw

→ vs conservative: Overweighting macro tail probabilities (Fed hike) and underweighting most recent reacceleration data (Q1 FY27); inventory concern is premature given supply-constrained environment