When: Close above $528 (10 EMA) on volume ≥1.2M with RSI reclaiming 40 AND MACD histogram flipping positive

Then: Technical confirmation of re-rating attempt

When: 8-K filing announcing buyback resumption authorization — cleanest insider signal given cut from $7.9B (2022) to $3.0B (2026 YTD)

Then: Corporate signal confirms capital allocation commitment

When: 10Y sub-4.75% AND close >$528 on volume ≥1.2M with MACD histogram positive AND buyback resumption 8-K

Then: Upgrade to Overweight — initiate 25-30% of target

When: Close below $505 on daily basis — structural invalidation where all prior analysts converge

Then: Downgrade toward Underweight

When: Q3 2026 earnings miss with guide-down (operating margin slip below 11% or continued buyback compression)

Then: Downgrade toward Underweight

When: 10Y sustained move above 5.25% with defense sector de-rating acceleration

Then: Downgrade toward Underweight

When: Saudi F-35 deal blocked by Congress or material scope reduction

Then: Downgrade toward Underweight

Reduce initial tranche from 40% to 20-25%, or wait for RSI divergence near 500 or confirmed reversal above 524 before adding exposure

• MACD at minus 9.80 with histogram of minus 0.95 is expanding bearish, not contracting — downside momentum accelerating, not fading
• RSI at 34 is not exhaustion — can stay below 35 for weeks in genuine downtrends
• Bollinger breakdown below 513 is significant — volatility expanding into the selloff, confirming momentum regime to the downside
• Zero news on a 15% drawdown is a warning sign, not bullish — institutional selling is mandate-driven and could continue
• Forward P/E of 15.6 versus trailing P/E of 18.9 already reflects the TTM normalization inflection — not a free option
• Multiple resistance levels from current 512: 10 EMA at 523.79, VWAP at 527.95, Bollinger middle at 528.84, upper band at 544.62, death cross zone around 555, and 50-day MA at 557.50 — approximately 43 dollars of overhead resistance
• 30-year yields at multi-decade highs and Polymarket pricing 44% Oct Fed hike and 76% Dec hike are confirmed, observable headwinds
• April 2026 capitulation low at 497.25 with next major support 495-500 zone — stop at 470 is 8% below entry with no structural support between 497 and 490
• ATR of 12.28 means daily volatility of 2.4% — probability of touching stop before any bounce is materially higher than framed
• Fundamentals and entry timing are separate questions — excellent fundamentals do not justify buying into a confirmed breakdown with expanding downside momentum

→ vs aggressive: Beta of 0.10 does not make technical analysis irrelevant — it measures market sensitivity, not order book supply/demand dynamics; a death cross is a function of LMT's own moving averages, not broad market correlation

→ vs aggressive: RSI at 34 is not exhaustion — exhaustion requires declining selling pressure, contracting MACD histogram, and higher lows in both price and RSI; none of that has occurred

→ vs aggressive: Bollinger breakdown below 513 cannot be dismissed — lower highs and lower lows with declining VWMA and expanding MACD histogram confirm this IS a momentum regime to the downside

→ vs aggressive: TTM normalization inflection is already embedded in the forward P/E of 15.6 — the aggressive analyst is identifying something fully priced into consensus estimates, not a hidden opportunity

→ vs aggressive: Geopolitical premium is a contingent positive, not an offset to confirmed negative — 30-year yields and Fed hike probabilities are current market prices, not hypotheticals

→ vs aggressive: Zero news on a 15% drawdown is worse than bad news — it means selling is mandate-driven (pension reallocations, factor rotation, de-risking), not fundamentals-driven, and could continue indefinitely

→ vs aggressive: Target band of 557-622 based on multiples of 17-19x on EPS of 32.75 ignores that 50-day MA at 557.50 and 200-day MA at 562.26 are rolling over as resistance, not rising as support

→ vs aggressive: Stop at 470 below April 2026 capitulation low of 497.25 leaves 4.5-5.5% drop before any technical support, with ATR of 12.28 making daily volatility of 2.4% a material risk of stop-touching before any bounce

Reduce initial tranche to 25% at 512 entry; keep staged structure for remaining 75% (30% at 500-505 with RSI divergence, 30% above 524 with MACD positive); maintain stop at 470; hold as long-term fundamental position with tactical entry.

• Revenue up 10.5% year over year with operating margin at 12.36% peak
• Net debt down 3.6 billion in four quarters; free cash flow yield at 4.7%
• 160 billion dollar backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility
• Forward P/E of 15.6 versus TTM P/E of 18.9 shows market has already priced normalization
• Death cross already in place: 50 SMA at 555.42 below 200 SMA at 556.40; current price 512
• MACD histogram at minus 0.95 and expanding bearish, indicating accelerating downside momentum
• RSI at 34 is not exhaustion without contracting MACD histogram or higher-low divergence
• 10 EMA resistance at 523.79; April capitulation low at 497.25; spring 2026 base at 495-500
• ATR of 12.28 implies daily range of plus or minus 2.4%; stop at 470 is 8.2% risk
• Macro: 44% October hike probability, 76% December hike probability; roughly neutral wash
• Sentiment score at 5.1 with low confidence is closer to noise than actionable signal
• Aggressive analyst correctly identifies improving fundamentals but overstates technical significance
• Conservative analyst correctly identifies technical reality but underweights fundamental value
• Second tranche zone at 500-505 offers roughly 2.5% lower entry but misses early reversal opportunity
• Fundamentals will survive either 500 or 524 entry; technical posture determines optimal sizing

→ vs aggressive: Beta of 0.10 only measures LMT's correlation to S&P 500, not internal supply and demand dynamics; death cross reflects LMT's own order book deterioration regardless of market correlation

→ vs aggressive: RSI at 34 without contracting MACD histogram, higher-low RSI divergence, or momentum candle pattern is not exhaustion; MACD at minus 0.95 and expanding bearish shows accelerating, not fading, downside momentum

→ vs aggressive: Forward P/E of 15.6 versus TTM of 18.9 means the normalization is already priced in; sell-side has modeled the Q2 2025 rolloff and you are paying for it, not receiving it as free optionality

→ vs conservative: Death cross has been in place for weeks; waiting costs you the same signal with delay and at higher price if reversal comes; current price already reflects the death cross

→ vs conservative: Path-to-target resistance layers (10 EMA at 523.79 and others) are normal parts of trend reversal, not permanent ceilings; they resolve in days or weeks during regime change

→ vs conservative: Reducing to 20-25% while waiting for RSI divergence near 500 is overly conservative; 2.5% lower entry at 500 versus 512 is minimal downside capture, but missing early reversal from 512 is meaningful upside cost; the analyst is overweighting cost of being wrong and underweighting cost of being late