LMT

Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

–

Return

+0.33%

Status

scored

Underweight rating on LMT targets a 20-25% position trim to reach 75-80% of benchmark weight, deploying proceeds into short-duration Treasuries (~4.5% yield) to capture the -180bps yield gap versus LMT's 2.76% dividend; a protective put spread ($500/$480 strikes, Nov cycle) hedges tail risk into Q3 earnings. Hard stop on residual is $490 close, with re-engagement to Hold requiring either a technical reclaim above $519.79 with volume ≥1.2M and RSI>50 with positive MACD histogram for 2+ sessions, or a clean Q3 print (operating margin ≥12%, FCF ≥$1.5B, buyback resumption). Price target is $485.0 with a 4-12 week tactical horizon.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.74%

Status

scored

Trim LMT 20-25% at ~$506 to reduce from 100% to 75-80% of benchmark weight while hedging the residual position with a $500/$480 put spread (November cycle) and redeploying freed capital into short-duration Treasuries at ~4.5% yield to capture the -180bps yield gap versus LMT's 2.71% dividend. Hard stop on residual at $490 close; re-engagement requires either a confirmed $540 reclaim with RSI >40 and positive MACD histogram, or a clean Q3 print (operating margin ≥12%, FCF ≥$1.5B, buyback resumption).

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.14%

Status

scored

Underweight rating on LMT calls for a 15-20% position trim via scaled execution across $510-$530, reducing to 70-75% of benchmark weight, with a hard stop at $490 close on the residual position. The technical breakdown is genuine (price 9% below 200-day MA, MACD deteriorated from -1.27 to -11.43, death cross confirmed) but the structural floor ($150B+ backlog, sole-source oligopoly, 2.73% dividend, record Q2) dominates realized price paths ~90% of the time per the binding 10/02 reflection, dictating the smaller trim magnitude rather than the Aggressive Analyst's 25-40% overshoot.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.69%

Status

scored

Active conditional Hold on LMT at $505 maintains current 50-75% benchmark weight as a beta-0.10 defensive stabilizer while awaiting macro or technical confirmation. The framework pre-commits 25-33% tranche adds on either 10-EMA reclaim above $515.96 with MACD/RSI confirmation or capitulation below $497 with bullish divergence, while a hard stop at $488 triggers full exit. If no trigger fires within 3-4 weeks and no Iran supplemental language materializes, trim to 60% benchmark weight (15-20% cut) and redeploy proceeds into short-duration Treasuries at ~4.5% yield, with full reassessment at Q3 2026 earnings mid-October.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.24%

Status

scored

Trim 25% of LMT at $505 to lock in ~10% unrealized gains from $460.5 entry while reducing exposure to binary Q3 earnings catalyst and imminent death cross; maintain 75% residual above $488-492 structural floor for mean reversion participation and dividend carry, with re-engagement requiring confirmed $525 reclaim with positive MACD or clean Q3 print.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.02%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at 50-75% benchmark weight as a beta-0.10 defensive stabilizer; do not add at current $509.25. Hard stop at $497 close; if no upgrade trigger fires within 10 sessions, execute a 15-20% probe at market per the time-decay clause. Upgrade to Overweight requires ALL THREE: 10Y sub-4.75%, technical reclaim above $528 on volume ≥1.2M with RSI >40 and MACD positive, and 8-K buyback resumption.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.74%

Status

scored

Initiate Underweight by trimming to 50-75% of benchmark weight at current levels ($512), removing the trader's aggressive short overlay at $524-$528 as both Conservative and Neutral analysts correctly object to resistance-anchor shorts in low-beta names. The structural floor thesis ($230B backlog, beta 0.10, 2.69% dividend, $6.9B FCF) remains intact and prevents a full Sell, while the confirmed death cross, deteriorating revenue-to-net-income conversion, and hostile macro regime (30Y at 2002 highs, 97% probability of zero 2026 cuts) argue against Buy/Overweight.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.58%

Status

scored

Maintain HOLD on LMT as a timing call rather than a quality call, avoiding both aggressive Buy/Overweight proposals (which repeat the 9/24 macro-gate precondition violation at higher sizing) and passive Hold (which bled -1.0% alpha per the 9/28 reflection). Execute a disciplined 15-20% probe position at market to participate in potential re-rating while maintaining a downside-protection time-decay clause: if the macro gate fails to clear within 10 sessions, trim 15-20% toward Underweight, with hard stop at $470 close.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.14%

Status

scored

Maintain HOLD on LMT as the macro gate (10Y sub-4.75%) required to unlock the fundamental re-rating thesis remains failed at ~5%, with the prior 9/24 Overweight call having returned -1.3% alpha empirically proving premature capital deployment was the error to avoid; preserve existing exposure with hard stop at $505 close and do not deploy new capital until ALL THREE upgrade triggers fire (10Y below 4.75%, technical reclaim above $528 with volume ≥1.2M and RSI/MACD confirmation, and buyback resumption via 8-K).

Outcome

–

Return

-0.28%

Status

scored

Trim 15-20% of LMT position using time-decay execution: limit orders at $545-$555, or execute 50% of intended trim at market if unfilled within 8 sessions, to avoid the alpha bleed pattern from prior five calls. Preserve 80-85% core for the 2.64% dividend yield and Q3'26 earnings optionality, with hard stop on core at $500 close. Re-engagement triggers are tiered at $525 (25% of trimmed size) and $553.79 (remaining 75%), requiring defense sector stabilization and no macro escalation.

Outcome

✗

Return

-0.79%

Status

scored

Initiate Overweight on Lockheed Martin with staged entry at $522, where Tranche 1 (25-30% of target) establishes position at current levels, Tranche 2 (35%) awaits confirmation at $511/$497, and Tranche 3 (25%) is gated on either 50 SMA reclaim or flush to $480/$460 plus macro relief (10Y sub-4.75% or Fed pause). Hard stop set at $458 (12% below entry) with $638 price target (22% upside) and reassessment at Q3 2026 earnings in mid-October.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.19%

Status

scored

Trim 30-35% of LMT into the $545-$555 relief rally zone over 5-10 sessions, retaining a 65-70% core for the 2.6% dividend yield (supported by 8.4x interest coverage and $5.56B TTM FCF) and Q3 2026 earnings optionality; hard stop at $505 close with tiered re-engagement triggers at $525-$530 (Tier 1) and $553.79 (Tier 2) requiring volume and momentum confirmation. This is a timing call, not a quality call—the $173B backlog and F-35/Trident/PAC-3 oligopoly structural thesis remains intact.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.45%

Status

scored

Lockheed Martin (LMT) receives an Underweight rating with a recommended 30-40% trim of existing exposure into the $538-555 zone; conditional short sleeve at 1% portfolio risk triggers only on confirmed close below $512 with volume ≥1.2M, MACD negative, and RSI failing to hold 35. Hard stop on preserved core at $505 close; reload on close above $565 with RSI >55 and positive MACD histogram. Reassess at Q3 2026 earnings in late October.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.44%

Status

scored

Maintain HOLD on Lockheed Martin at $535 with a refined execution framework that allows partial adds into confirmed basing action at $525-530 rather than waiting for full $554 reclaim per the 9/18 binding reflection lesson. Hard stop remains at $505 close; trim trigger at $548-553 on confirmed rejection sized at 15-20%. Reassess at Q3 2026 earnings in mid-October as the binary catalyst for operating margin, FCF, and buyback resumption signals.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.38%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at 3-5% portfolio weight with HOLD rating, as the structural thesis (F-35/Trident/PAC-3/THAAD oligopoly, $173B backlog, 20.7% forward EPS growth, beta 0.10) remains intact despite broken technicals at current $533 price. Do not add at current levels; trim 15-20% of position into strength at $545-550, and redeploy proceeds into short-duration Treasuries yielding ~4.5% versus LMT's 2.56% dividend.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.88%

Status

scored

Trim 20-25% of LMT on any rally to $548-553 (50/200 SMA convergence zone) over 5-10 sessions while preserving 75-80% core for structural exposure, 2.57% dividend capture, and Q3 2026 earnings optionality; hard stop on core at $487 close on volume as structural invalidation level.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.16%

Status

scored

Analyst recommends trimming 20-30% of the LMT position into the $537-$555 zone over 3-5 trading sessions while preserving 70-80% core for structural exposure, 2.6% dividend capture, and Q3 2026 earnings optionality; hard stop on preserved core set at $510. Re-engagement requires a two-of-three confirmation framework combining price reclaim of $553 on above-average volume, MACD crossover above signal line with both above zero, and RSI sustained above 55.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.71%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at HOLD with no new capital deployment. A tactical framework is layered on: starter add on $539 VWMA reclaim with volume confirmation (15-20% sizing), hard stop at $505.74 Bollinger band; defensive trim at $505 breakdown on volume (15-25% sizing). Re-evaluate post-FOMC and at Q3 2026 earnings in October, with the 2.61% dividend providing carry during the wait.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.77%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at Hold with a binding $497 hard stop and tactical trim triggers at $552 supply rejection. Stage additions only on confirmed support bounces at $505 or $497 with positive RSI divergence and 10 EMA reclaim at $535—do not deploy above $530 absent technical reversal. Capital from any trim proceeds into cash or short-duration Treasuries at ~4% yield; preserve core for the Q3 2026 earnings catalyst window in October.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.99%

Status

scored

Trim 30-35% of LMT into the $524-540 resistance zone over 5-10 sessions while preserving 65-70% core for structural exposure, 2.6% dividend, and Q3 2026 earnings optionality; hard stop on core at $480 close (~3.7x ATR). Tactical short overlay at $553-555 with stop at $590 and $510 target. 15-day time stop triggers trim at market if price fails to reach $545. Capital rotates to cash/short-duration Treasuries (~4% yield), not small-cap substitutes. Re-engagement requires two-of-three technical confirmations (RSI <35 with bullish hook + price reclaim $551 on volume ≥1.2M, OR MACD histogram contracting 2 sessions + price reclaim $551). This is a timing call, not a quality call—the structural thesis remains intact.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.12%

Status

scored

Trim 30-35% of LMT into the $540-$555 resistance zone over 5-10 sessions while preserving 65-70% core for structural exposure and dividend capture (2.6%); hard stop on core at weekly close below $480. Tactical short layer Entry $553, stop $590, target $510. Re-engagement requires two-of-three confirmation (RSI <35 with bullish hook + price reclaim $551 on volume, OR MACD histogram contracting for 2 sessions + price reclaim $551 on volume).

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.08%

Status

scored

Trim LMT to 15-20% of benchmark weighting (60-70% reduction from current exposure) into the $520-530 zone over 3-5 sessions, with a hard stop at $552. Re-engagement requires a two-of-three confirmation framework—either RSI <35 with bullish hook plus price reclaim $551 on volume, OR MACD histogram contracting for 2 consecutive sessions plus price reclaim $551 on volume. Deploy proceeds into cash/short-duration Treasuries at ~4% yield; reassess at Q3 2026 earnings (October) and FY27 NDAA markup.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.18%

Status

scored

Overweight rating on LMT at ~$536 with phased accumulation strategy—initial half-position sized at 1.5% portfolio, adding remaining half only on confirmed technical triggers ($552 reclaim with RSI>50/contracting MACD or $525 successful retest on declining volume). Hard stop at $475 defines maximum loss; trim 1/3 at $597, 1/3 at $620, let remainder run to $674 UBS PT over 3-6 months through Q3 2026 earnings. Cap total exposure at 3-4%; reinvest the 2.63% dividend into the position.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.07%

Status

scored

Underweight rating on LMT calls for trimming 25-30% of the position into the $530-540 zone over 3-5 sessions using limit orders, while preserving 70-75% core for structural exposure and Q3 earnings catalyst optionality; deploy proceeds into short-duration Treasuries (~4% yield) or defense ETFs (ITA/XAR) and consider protective put overlay at $510-515 strike on the core position.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.44%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at benchmark weight with a $520 closing stop and no new capital deployment. The unanimous Hold across three analyst perspectives is binding — fundamental strength ($173B backlog, sole-source franchises, 1.75x FCF dividend coverage) prohibits Underweight while confirmed technical distribution (below all MAs, collapsing MACD, expanding ATR to $14+) prohibits Buy. Pre-commit to re-evaluation at Q3 2026 earnings in October as the binary catalyst to resolve structural-versus-technical tension.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.26%

Status

scored

Underweight rating maintained on LMT with 30-40% trim into the $544-555 zone while preserving 50-60% core position; price target is $510 as hard-stop floor with 3-6 month horizon through Q3 2026 earnings. Capital proceeds to deploy into cash/Treasuries yielding ~4% or diversified defense ETFs (ITA/XAR), with protective put overlay on core position at $510-515 strike. Re-entry triggers include bullish reclaim above $551.70 on volume ≥1.5M or bear washout to $510-515 zone with capitulation signals.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.38%

Status

scored

Trim 30-40% of LMT position into the $544-555 range over 3-5 sessions while preserving a 50-60% core for dividend capture ($3.45/share ex-div September 2) and structural support; hard stop at $510. The Underweight thesis is grounded in GAAP deterioration (EPS down 22% over two years despite 11% revenue growth), technical distribution below all moving averages with expanding negative MACD, and an asymmetric valuation risk where realistic forward EPS of $25-26 implies 21-22x forward PE versus the optimistic $32.72 consensus. Re-engagement requires confirmed close above $551.70 on volume ≥1.5M with contracting MACD histogram; degradation to full Sell requires close below $543 on rising volume.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.98%

Status

scored

Trim LMT to 30-45% underweight at current $560-565 levels, preserving a core position for downside convexity and the September 2 ex-dividend capture ($3.45/share). Reject small-cap rotation—deploy trim proceeds into cash/Treasuries yielding ~4% or diversified defense ETFs (ITA/XAR) instead. Re-entry triggers include a confirmed close above $575 on volume ≥1.5M with MACD bullish crossover, or a defended $548-$555 zone with MACD histogram contracting and RSI >45 on declining volume.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.46%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at current weight (no more than -50bps vs defense-sector benchmark) with a trigger-based framework rather than passive holding; trim trigger lowered to 2-of-3 confirmations (close <$550 + negative MACD histogram + elevated volume), add trigger tightened to require 5-day rolling close above $590 with positive MACD histogram on rising volume. Time-based degradation gates added at September 2 ex-dividend date and early-October pre-earnings window to prevent alpha-bleed failure mode. Stop at $550 (close below) with absolute hard stop at $536 (1 ATR below $550). 12-month target $600-$620 on base case 18-19x forward EPS of $32.72.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.36%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at neutral weight with no more than -50bps versus defense-sector benchmark; do not add at $555 given mixed technicals (price below broken 10 EMA at $573, MACD histogram negative, RSI 47). Position is yield-anchored by the 2.44% well-covered dividend (1.75x FCF coverage) and defended by structural floor at $548-$550 (50/200 SMA cluster), with explicit add/reduce triggers tied to volume thresholds. The alpha-bleed concern from successive Hold calls is addressed through pre-committed time-based re-evaluation at September 2 ex-dividend and Q3 2026 earnings in October.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.05%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at Hold with -50bps cap versus the defense-sector benchmark. Explicit degradation and upgrade triggers are set: Underweight if LMT closes below $549 on volume ≥1.5M (reduce 50%, target $510→$488), Overweight if it closes above $575 on volume ≥1.5M for two consecutive days (add 25-50%, target $614, stop $549). The Q3 2026 earnings print in October is the primary binary catalyst, with a price target of $621.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.64%

Status

scored

Underweight LMT with 20-30% trim recommended at $570-$577 (10 EMA zone), capturing dividend income from the 2.45% yield while reducing convexity. Hard stop at $549 close on volume triggers another 25% reduction toward $500-$520, with re-entry requiring either $585 close above with MACD bullish flip on volume >1.0M or defended $549 support with MACD histogram contracting and RSI stabilizing above 45. Six-month horizon through Q3 2026 earnings.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.35%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at the lower end of the defense-sector benchmark weight band without adding at $562, as the current technical setup mirrors the exact configuration from the 8/21 binding lesson that explicitly rejected adds ($563.57, bearish MACD at -4.95, price below 10 EMA). Stage new capital on two clean triggers: (1) defended $548–$555 support with MACD histogram contracting and RSI stabilizing above 45, or (2) close above $581.72 on volume greater than 1.0M shares with positive MACD crossover. Hard stop reference at $545; time horizon through Q3 2026 earnings and FY27 budget clarity.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.10%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at the lower end of the 2–3% sizing range rather than full benchmark weight, avoiding new capital deployment at $563.57 into the broken near-term tape (MACD bearish cross at −4.95, price $22 below 10 EMA); wait for either a confirmed close above $585.62 with MACD bullish flip and volume >1.0M, or a pullback to $540–$552 that stabilizes above $555 within three sessions; the trader's order mechanics are fatally flawed (stop at $548.55 placed above $548.00 entry, $0.55 stop against $15.71 ATR), so rework entry logic before committing any capital.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.38%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at current weight with no action at $571.48, as the stock sits in no-man's-land between defended support at $547-548 (50/200 SMA confluence) and resistance at $590.52 (broken 10 EMA), with confirmed bearish MACD crossover and heaviest volume in 30 sessions suggesting negative convexity for immediate adds. Stage capital in two tranches: first add at $548-555 on declining-volume defense of the SMA confluence; second add on $590 reclaim with volume >1.2M shares.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.00%

Status

scored

Hold LMT as the risk-adjusted return at current $607 entry is inferior given the 19.3% recent rally and only 1.5 ATR downside buffer to $584. Stage new capital in two tranches: first entry on confirmed close at or below $596 (10-day EMA), second entry on test of $584 support confluence. Reassess to Overweight following Q3 2026 earnings in 8-10 weeks on clean beat with 12%+ margin hold and any buyback resumption.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.97%

Status

scored

Trim LMT to 35-40% of benchmark weight on deteriorating setup at $607, with primary downside target of $547, selling into $615-$625 rallies in staged tranches while retaining residual exposure until volume-confirmed recovery above $640-$665 or pullback stabilization near $545-$547.

Outcome

✓

Return

+2.26%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at the lower end of the 2-3% portfolio weight range but trim 15-20% into the $605-610 resistance zone based on the 8/14 binding lesson's guidance on analyst convergence. Hard invalidation stop set at $540 (Death Cross confirmation), with a phased re-add strategy targeting $560-585 on MACD histogram reset. HOLD reflects disciplined balance between the 8/14 mandate for partial trim and the 8/13 prohibition on over-trimming structurally durable names; patience over conviction as the $593.74 entry remains $50+ above moving averages with MACD one bearish session from negative crossover.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.45%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT position at 2% portfolio weight (lower end of 2-3% range) with a Hold rating. The 8/13 reflection serves as a binding lesson against preemptive trimming when the structural floor remains high (PEG 1.26, beta 0.11, $11.44B deferred revenue). Trailing stop at $580 with hard invalidation below $544; await either a pullback to $586-$593 with reversal day >900K volume or a confirmed breakout above $635.88 on >2.0M volume before adding back.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.78%

Status

scored

Trim LMT by 30-40% at ~$598 given deteriorating technical setup at top of TTM P/E range (22.4x), failed $606.72 breakout on light volume (571K), and fading momentum with MACD histogram compressed to 1.85. While the structural thesis remains intact (forward EPS $32.72, $12.15B deferred revenue, $3B+ Patriot/THAAD award), four consecutive Hold decisions averaging only +0.28% alpha with the most recent at -2.1% validate reducing exposure now. Maintain 60-70% core position with $580 trailing stop; re-engage on pullback to $560-570 with RSI 55-60 or confirmed close above $606.72 on volume >1M.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.44%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at 2% portfolio weight (lower end of 2-3% range) with a Hold rating; do not add at current $607 price. Trailing stop at $588 (10 EMA) with hard invalidation at $544 (200 SMA close) and catastrophic floor at $530. Staged entry plan: first add at $588-595 on RSI cooling to 55-60, second add on confirmed 200 SMA retest with bullish price action, third add on Q3 2026 earnings beat-and-raise with PAC-3 revenue flow-through. Target $627.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.50%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT at 2-3% portfolio weight (toward lower end) given extended $597 entry; do not add at current levels. Hold $567 stop loss (2× ATR) and trim 30-40% on volume-confirmed break below $584 (10 EMA). Wait for $560-575 zone or $544-550 (200 SMA) pullback to add; re-add on $603 reclaim with volume >1.5M shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.89%

Status

scored

Maintain LMT positions with a $555 trailing stop while avoiding new additions at current ~$603 levels, as the +20% three-month rally and RSI at 63-72 create unfavorable risk/reward (4% upside to $627 resistance vs. 5.7% downside to stop). The structural bull case—$160B+ backlog, sole-source franchises, 5% FCF yield, forward EPS $32.72—is too durable to underweight, but disciplined entry rules dictate waiting for a pullback to $575-581 with RSI<60 or a confirmed breakout above $610-615 on volume >2M shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

+2.59%

Status

scored

Initiate Overweight on LMT via staged entry, targeting $650 over 3-6 months. Commit 33–40% of intended weight on pullbacks into the $575–$580 zone (10 EMA retest), with remaining capital for deeper pullbacks to $565–$575 (20 SMA/10 EMA confluence). Hard stop at $542 (below 200 SMA), with mental reassessment at $553. Trim 25% into $615–$622 resistance and another 25% on push toward $650+. Hedge via $580/$540 protective put spread on initial tranche to cover Iran-Hormuz de-escalation tail risk and thin sentiment data.