AMGN

Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

✗

Return

+1.82%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at benchmark weight with hard stop at $399; do not add at $407. The hold is justified by the Aggressive's BUY failing position-sizing arithmetic (1.9% stop distance cannot deliver 2% risk envelope without unauthorized leverage) and the Neutral's conditional scaling plan recreating the multi-tranche complexity problem the framework prohibits. The macro stack (96% no-cut probability, $60B refinancing wall, buyback pause as bearish insider signal) prevents Overweight, while the $5B deleveraging, 1.7x FCF coverage, 0.41 beta, and higher-low pattern from $375 to $407 prevent Underweight. Pre-commit upgrade to Overweight on Q3 beat-and-raise; downgrade to Underweight with $375 PT on miss/cut.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.37%

Status

scored

Trim AMGN 15-20% at $413 targeting 80-85% benchmark weight, with $395 hard stop (1.1 ATR below entry). Pre-committed upgrade triggers are Q3 earnings beat-and-raise or volume-confirmed close above $425 (both → upgrade to Hold); downgrade trigger is miss/cut on guidance (→ downgrade to Sell, $375 PT). Mandatory re-assessment post-Q3 print rather than pre-positioning through the binary catalyst.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.60%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at ~$402. Neither Buy nor Underweight is supported by the binding evidence: the Aggressive Buy fails its own position-sizing arithmetic (6.7% stop distance cannot deliver a 2% portfolio risk envelope without leverage), and Underweight is foreclosed by lessons against preemptive trimming ahead of binary events combined with evidence that 20-25% trims on low-beta names fail to translate into alpha. Pre-commit to a binary decision tree around Q3 2026 earnings.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.09%

Status

scored

Trim 20-25% of AMGN exposure into the $402-405 bounce zone, maintaining 75-80% residual given the intact 200 SMA at $361.40, 0.43 beta, and $8.65B TTM FCF providing structural ballast. Hard stop at $390 (1.3 ATR below entry) protects against breakdown, while a close above $409 on volume ≥4M would flip the setup to neutral warranting repurchase of trimmed shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.01%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at HOLD with the current ~$403 price level, preserving 2.48% dividend carry and 0.43-beta defensive exposure while awaiting Q3 2026 earnings (early November) and MariTide Phase 3 readouts. Re-engagement triggers include a close above $408 on volume exceeding 4M with MACD histogram re-expansion and RSI above 55, or a constructive reversal in the $377-$390 zone with positive momentum divergence.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.04%

Status

scored

Trim 40% of AMGN at $405–$408 levels given the confirmed technical breakdown (breach of both 10 EMA at $409.77 and 50 SMA at $407.87 on 2.49M shares) and lower-high structure at $423 < $444, indicating Wyckoff distribution rather than a buyable dip; hold the remaining position with a hard stop at $400 (just below BOLL middle at $401.26), and do not initiate new longs or add into the $412–$420 resistance zone, with re-entry anchored to catalyst-based triggers rather than static price levels.

Outcome

✓

Return

-3.38%

Status

scored

Trim AMGN 40-50% over 1-2 weeks into rallies at $426-440 zone given unfavorable asymmetry (5.5% upside to $445 resistance vs. 10% downside to $380) and macro headwinds compressing defensive pharma multiples; set buy-limits at $378-395 for re-engagement and hard stop at $397-398 on residual.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.50%

Status

scored

Maintain HOLD on AMGN at ~$423; do not add ahead of Q3 2026 earnings (3-4 weeks away) due to three binding constraints: the 9/18 lesson on complex multi-tranche entries collapsing to Hold-equivalent returns at elevated ATR ($10.40), the 9/8 lesson on MACD crossovers failing 30-40% at momentum turning points, and anemic up-volume (2.5-3.7M vs 6.83-8.52M breakdown days). Preserve positioning through the binary catalyst with a $399 hard stop, trim 20-25% into $440-450 resistance on expanding volume, and re-engage only post-Q3 on confirmed pullback to $400-410 with constructive tape.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.32%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at neutral weight with benchmark-matching exposure, neither adding aggressively nor trimming on the current rally. The unresolved September 8 institutional dump (6.83M shares on 2.5× normal volume) and elevated forward EPS assumptions invalidate directional conviction, while the confirmed V-recovery off $375.65, intact 50 SMA support at $404.62, and $14B cash position with 1.6× FCF dividend coverage justify retention. Re-engage on MACD bullish cross + $430 reclaim on volume, Q3 earnings validation (October 28), or Sept 8 catalyst disclosure.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.85%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at ~$414 with Hold rating. Defensive positioning is warranted given $14B cash, 16.96x forward P/E, 35% operating margins, and 0.43 beta, but technical resistance at the lower high of $414.61 on light 1.80M volume with MACD line at -2.12 precludes fresh capital deployment. Re-engage on confirmed $420 breakout above $3M volume or pullback to $388-$395 zone; hard invalidation below $403.54 50 SMA.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.11%

Status

scored

Reduce existing AMGN exposure by 30-50% to bring position to 60-70% of benchmark weight, as the stock trades at Jefferies' raised $410 price target with zero fundamental support above current levels; set hard stop on remaining position at $395 and consider re-entry at $375-385 pullback or confirmed breakout above $422 with volume >4M shares ahead of the OASIZ 302 catalyst in 60-90 days.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.01%

Status

scored

AMGN holds at $406 with a consensus price target of $388 and a stretch target of $410-415 on technical confirmation; the decision rejects both aggressive tactical entries and preemptive trimming, instead maintaining current exposure with defined breakout and pullback entry triggers pending MariTide Phase 3 data and Q3 2026 earnings in late October.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.01%

Status

scored

Execute Buy at $410 with a moderate initial position (~50% of intended allocation), scaling remaining on confirmed close above $425 with sustained volume greater than 5M shares OR on second dazodalibep Phase 3 positive readout; hard stop at $388. Primary targets $445-465 represent 8-13% upside, with extended targets of $480-500 (17-22% upside) conditional on second trial clearance plus olpasiran confirmation; time horizon is 3-6 months to allow catalyst stack to play out.

Outcome

✗

Return

+4.34%

Status

scored

Trim 30% of the AMGN position at current $390-395 levels while maintaining 70% core for dividend carry (2.6%) and defensive beta (0.43), with a hard stop at $370 close-based. Do not initiate new positions; re-entry requires dual confirmation (MACD bullish cross AND close above $399.55 with volume >5M shares) only after olpasiran Phase 3 readout clears.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.95%

Status

scored

Execute Overweight via thirds-based scaling at 75-125 bps over benchmark—33% at current ~$385, 33% on confirmed hold above $370-375 with MACD histogram contracting, and final 34% on MACD bullish cross or 50 SMA reclaim ($398) with volume ≥4M. Active stop at $360-365 close-based, with $356 weekly close as categorical invalidation; trim schedule targets $398 (1/3), $415 (1/3), with final tranche toward $415-440 base case over 3-6 months.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.55%

Status

scored

The neutral analyst's 40/40/20 scaled entry framework is recommended for Overweight: 40% initial tranche at ~$380, 40% add on confirmed daily close above 10 EMA at $391.55 with volume >4M, and 20% on weekly close above $415. The active stop sits at $362 with $356 weekly close as categorical invalidation. The 32% upside to consensus ($388) versus 6% downside to 200 SMA ($356) validates the ~5:1 risk/reward, with 3-6 month horizon to Q3 2026 earnings and MariTide Phase 3 catalysts.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.91%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at current position size without adding or trimming as the 10% downside to the $356 hard stop versus 9% upside to the $398 re-engagement target presents symmetric risk-reward (~1:1), not the asymmetry required for an Overweight. The 200 SMA at $355.98 remains intact and should be respected per the 9/11 reflection, though the 9/15 lesson warns against binding constraints drifting toward over-conservatism. A tactical add of 10% of position is permitted only on confirmed basing signals (RSI divergence + price holding >$363 + MACD histogram contracting), with hard stop at $355.98 close-based.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.19%

Status

scored

Analysts maintain a Hold rating on AMGN with a core position of 80-85%, recommending a tactical 15-20% trim on any relief bounce to the $398-410 zone while preserving re-engagement optionality. The hard stop for residual holdings is set at $355.79 close-based (200 SMA), with trim escalation to 25-33% only on confirmed weekly close below that level.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.53%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at benchmark weight (current $381.50 exposure) as Hold is warranted given the broken technical structure (price below 10 EMA and 50 SMA, MACD histogram at -9.14) and unfavorable 0.6:1 reward-to-risk to the realistic first target at $397.71; trim 20-25% only on confirmed weekly close below the 200 SMA at $355.58, while considering $340-355 protective puts (3-6 month tenor) to hedge the structural-break tail while preserving dividend carry at 2.67% and re-engagement optionality.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.10%

Status

scored

Trim 30-40% of AMGN to achieve 60-70% of benchmark weight given confirmed breakdown (MACD histogram at -9.21, RSI 31.99, distribution volume of 6.83M shares), hawkish macro (80% Sept 16 hike probability), and leveraged balance sheet ($43.3B net debt vs $11.7B equity); maintain 60-70% residual with a close-based $340 stop that sits below the untested 200 SMA at $355, and consider $340-350 protective puts to hedge the structural support breach scenario while preserving quality franchise exposure (Imdelltra, $8.65B TTM FCF, 2.64% dividend yield).

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.34%

Status

scored

Maintain neutral weight at current $370-382 levels, with a hard stop at $355 (200 SMA close-based). Implement scaled re-entry: add 1/3 position on 50 SMA reclaim at $397 with RSI>50 and MACD turning positive, another 1/3 on 200 SMA test at $355 with bullish RSI divergence. Consider $355-strike protective puts (3-6 month tenor) to hedge binary MariTide downside.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.25%

Status

scored

Reduce AMGN by ~30% on the $405-415 relief bounce or if the 50 SMA at $396.71 fails on volume >4M shares, maintaining 65-70% residual for dividend carry while rejecting both the Aggressive Analyst's leveraged short overlay and the Conservative Analyst's undersized 25% trim as inadequate given confirmed triple-trim conditions.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.48%

Status

scored

Initiate a staged Overweight on AMGN at $390-400 with 30-40% of target weight, reserving capital for confirmed technical stabilization. Hard stop at $354 (just below 200 SMA); trailing to breakeven on reclaim of $429. Profit targets at $429 (+9%), $447 (+14%), and $475+ contingent on tier-1 sell-side olpasiran differentiation. The asymmetric reward/risk (10% downside to stop vs 12-20%+ upside) justifies incremental accumulation but not full Buy conviction given broken intermediate-term trend and pending MACD bearish cross.

Outcome

✗

Return

-10.08%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at a 2.5-3% portfolio cap with a $395 close-based structural stop; the 36.8% four-month gain, premium valuation (27.1x trailing P/E, 2.14 PEG), and bearish technical signals (negative MACD histogram at -1.55, declining RSI at 62.51) make fresh capital deployment unattractive at current levels. Reassess only after a confirmed close above $454 with volume above the $436 VWMA, RSI above 65, and positive MACD histogram, or after capitulation to $395-$405 with RSI at 35-45 and stabilization.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.55%

Status

scored

AMGN is rated UNDERWEIGHT with a 20-25% trim recommended at current $444 levels, as the risk/reward asymmetry is unfavorable with fair value at $432 based on $24 forward EPS at 18x. The triple-confirmation trigger (extension, MACD divergence, negative EPS revisions) justifies partial reduction, but the 0.41 defensive beta, 2.3% dividend, and intact intermediate-term uptrend above $393 support retaining a 3-5% residual position. Re-entry is conditioned on MACD bullish crossover plus RSI reset below 60 at $420-$432, or deeper structural basing at $394-$415.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.29%

Status

scored

Analysts converge on Hold for AMGN, with the structural investment case (Q2 record output, 0.41 defensive beta, 2.3% dividend, pipeline catalysts) intact but the 21% premium-to-history forward P/E and bearish MACD cross eliminating margin of safety for aggressive additions. Maintain core position at 3-4% portfolio cap with a $429.88 hard stop, add zone at $410-425 (Bollinger/EMA confluence, ~17x forward P/E), and trim zone at $475-500 (approaching 20x forward P/E); do not initiate new entries above $440 or widen the stop below $429.88.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.08%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at 3-4% portfolio cap with Hold rating as the entry premium at ~$438 is unambiguous—24.5% extension above 200 SMA, fresh MACD bearish cross, and 17.96x forward P/E leave no margin for error. Trim 15-20% ONLY on confirmed close above $445 with RSI>75 AND MACD histogram rollover AND declining volume; Tier 1 add at $420-$432 (25-33% size) and Tier 2 at $387-$400 (up to 1.5x weight) provide disciplined re-entry architecture. Stop at $387.94 close-based with $470 price target (3-6 months to Q3 2026 earnings validation).

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.92%

Status

scored

Trim AMGN by 25-30% given the confirmed lower-high formation at 22% extension above the 200 SMA amid hawkish Fed repricing, while preserving partial exposure to the Q2 fundamental inflection and 2.33% dividend. Hard stop at $380; re-engagement is contingency-based with Tier 1 at $385-395 (RSI <55, stabilizing EPS revisions) and Tier 2 at $400-410 (confirmed close above 20 SMA with volume >2.5M).

Outcome

–

Return

-0.59%

Status

scored

Trim 35-40% of the AMGN long position at current levels ($432) rather than waiting for the $438-445 rally the bearish divergence argues against; retain 60-65% as core exposure given intact FCF, 0.41 defensive beta, and dividend yield (2.29%). Tighten stop to $418-420 (close-based, ~1.5-1.7x ATR) and re-engage at Tier 1 ($400-410 with RSI reset) or Tier 2 ($385-395 on confirmed basing); the MariTide Phase 3 CVOT is the binary catalyst warranting protective-put hedge rather than pre-committed size additions.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.05%

Status

scored

Amgen warrants a 25-30% position trim to UNDERWEIGHT given confirmed dual momentum divergence at 52-week highs ($443.84), with RSI making a lower high (68.9 vs prior 79.8) while price printed a higher high, plus a 4% downward revision in forward EPS estimates over 90 days. The remaining 1.5-2% portfolio exposure preserves participation in Q2's genuine fundamental inflection (revenue +9.5%, operating margin 35%, EPS +65% YoY) and the 2.29% dividend yield while reducing risk ahead of Jackson Hole. Hard stop at $417, with Tier 1 re-engagement at $400-410 on RSI reset below 55.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.76%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at neutral weight (1.5-2% portfolio risk) given stretched entry at 98% of 52-week range and limited ~4.4% upside to the $470 target; Q2 revenue of $10.05B, 0.41 defensive beta, and 2.28% dividend yield justify continued ownership but not aggression. Pre-committed triggers formalize execution: trim 15-20% on confirmed close >$447 with RSI>75 and MACD rollover; re-enter Tier 1 at $400-415 and Tier 2 at $385-395 on pullbacks with RSI reset <60; hard exit on daily close <$431 for two consecutive sessions; optional 380-400 put overlay hedges MariTide binary risk. Q3 2026 earnings (late October) is the primary re-evaluation catalyst.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.43%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at 1.5-2% defensive portfolio risk given 27% premium to 200 SMA and RSI 74 — entry too extended for adding at $442, with Argus target of $470 implying only ~4% upside versus ~14% downside to $380 stop. Set conditional 20-25% trim trigger at $453 only if combined with RSI>80 AND MACD histogram rollover; if triggered, raise trailing stop on remainder to $429. Commit to tiered add zones at $429 (10 EMA) and $412 (Bollinger middle) requiring MACD reacceleration and RSI reset — preserving the pullback entry the aggressive analyst refuses to wait for while respecting entry quality.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.36%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at current defensive weight (1.5-2% portfolio risk) given HOLD consensus anchored in confirmed fundamentals (22 double-digit-growth products, Q2 operating income +32%, $14B cash, 0.41 defensive beta). Reject adding on strength at current $443.84 where RSI 75.6 and +27% above 200 SMA create extended entry risk; instead commit to tiered adds at $405-410 or $378 on pullback. Adopt hybrid stop architecture (close below 10 EMA $426 for two sessions OR hard floor $410, whichever is higher) with 25% trim trigger above $450 on volume >3M shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.03%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at current weight with HOLD rating as all three analysts converge on this stance. Pre-commit to 15-20% trim triggers contingent on price pushing above $447 with declining volume and RSI >70, or bearish RSI divergence—not preemptive action at current $439. Protective-put overlay (380-400 strike) hedges MariTide binary catalyst risk while trailing stop at $424 protects existing positions.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.29%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at 1.5-2% defensive sizing with no additions at current $433.73 (RSI 71.53 cooling from 79.80, upper Bollinger rejection at $443.20 occurred, 24% premium to 200 SMA); pre-commit add zones at $400-415 (Tier 1) and $385-395 (Tier 2) totaling 50-66% of intended size; hard stop at $399 for new adds, trailing 10 EMA ($420.94) on two-consecutive-close basis for existing positions, thesis exit on weekly close below 50 SMA ($373).

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.95%

Status

scored

Hold AMGN with a 10-15% tactical trim into the $441-444 overbought zone, rejecting both the aggressive analyst's add-at-$442.36 thesis (momentum chase at RSI 79.80 after 24.5% five-week rally) and the conservative analyst's 15-25% trim (over-corrects against confirmed regime change with $14B annualized FCF and 0.41-beta defensive profile). Hedge binary MariTide catalyst with 2-3% protective-put overlay; re-evaluate at Q3 2026 earnings for operating leverage confirmation.

Outcome

✗

Return

+4.02%

Status

scored

Maintain Hold on AMGN with existing positions protected by a trailing stop at $412 (10 EMA) and a hard exit on weekly close below $373 (50 SMA). For new capital, deploy a 3-tranche scaled-entry framework: 25-33% at $412 (10 EMA), 25-33% at $398 (Bollinger middle), and the remainder reserved for either a pullback to $373 (50 SMA) or a confirmed daily close above $435 on volume >3M shares. Q3 2026 earnings (late October) is the primary re-evaluation catalyst, with a protective-put overlay (380-400 strike, ~quarter duration, ~2-3% of position value) recommended to hedge the MariTide Phase 3 binary catalyst.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.41%

Status

scored

Maintain existing AMGN exposure at current weight given Q2's regime change (66% YoY net income growth, 22 double-digit-growth products, $10B+ revenue) but refrain from adding at $419 where RSI 71.91 and proximity to the upper Bollinger Band create poor risk-reward; pre-commit to a four-tranche staged scaling plan with the 10 EMA at $409.90 as the first add zone and a protective stop below fill at $383-388 for new tranches.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.00%

Status

scored

Initiate Overweight AMGN via a disciplined 4-tranche structure (25% each) starting at $414.75, with remaining tranches reserved for pullback to the $399-$407 VWMA/EMA zone, breakout above $420.26 on volume >3M shares, and Q3 2026 earnings validation. Stop sits at $370.22 (50 SMA) with a modest protective-put overlay to hedge MariTide binary risk; base target is $470 (+13%) with stretch to $500+ on confirmed breakout and positive catalyst readout.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.63%

Status

scored

Trim 25-30% of AMGN into the $415-420 zone via limit orders while maintaining 70-75% residual with a $400 trailing stop, as the technical setup (failed breakout at $421.79, 78% volume contraction, RSI 72.88) crosses the threshold from "pause" to "meaningful trim" despite durable Q2 fundamentals and MariTide optionality justifying residual exposure.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.40%

Status

scored

Hold AMGN with a tactical 10-15% trim into the $416 area, reducing from the more aggressive 20-30% or 35-45% proposals to avoid over-correcting at an extended entry; the prior Aug 11 Underweight call lost +0.2% alpha because accelerating fundamentals (Q2 revenue +9.5% YoY, FY26 guide raised ~$1B) overcame overbought technicals, a lesson that argues for preserving 85-90% residual exposure rather than aggressively reducing position size.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.45%

Status

scored

Trim 35-45% of AMGN exposure into the $404-$414 strength zone, reducing the position from overweight given an 11.4% premium to SWS fair value ($371.93), an overbought RSI at 71.5, and a binary CPI event within 24 hours that creates asymmetric downside risk; maintain the 55-65% residual core position to preserve exposure to record $10B revenue, 610bps margin expansion, and $8.65B FCF while bounding tail risk to a 12-15% drawdown on trimmed shares versus 18-23% on a full position.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.70%

Status

scored

Maintain existing AMGN long at current weight with trailing stop at $375.96; do not add at $417 near the upper Bollinger Band due to zero cushion versus the stop. Defer scale-up to a confirmed retest of $397 (10 EMA) with RSI cooling into the 55-62 zone, sized at no more than 1.5x current weight, or to $363 (50 SMA) for a higher-conviction add on a deeper correction. Re-evaluate on a high-volume close above $425 (>4M shares) toward Overweight, or a close below $363 on expanding volume toward Underweight.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.52%

Status

scored

Maintain AMGN at Hold given unfavorable risk/reward at current levels near $411, with downside risk of 4-5% to the 10 EMA versus only 2-3% upside to the $420-$425 base-case target. New positions should only be initiated on a pullback to the $393-$401 support zone (50-75% sizing) or a confirmed breakout above $412 on volume exceeding 3M shares. The Q2 fundamentals are strong enough to justify holding existing positions but not chasing the current level.