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Nasdaq · Information Technology · Software - Infrastructure

MSFT

Microsoft Corporation

Sells Windows, Office and the Azure cloud platform to enterprises, increasingly bundled with AI tooling.

$495.40-0.30%
Close · 2026-08-14
Current callSubscribers2026-08-14
$350$400$450$500
NovFebMayAug
Market context
$349.20
$550.2452-week range, last close at 73% of the range
1W
-0.92%
1M
+25.22%
3M
+17.67%
6M
+23.99%
YTD
+2.89%
1Y
-4.43%
Avg vol 20d
37.7M
RVOL
0.38
HOLD band
Fundamentalsas of 2026-08-14
Mkt cap
$3.68T
P/E
27.6
Fwd P/E
21.0
EPS
$17.94
Div yield
0.73%
Beta
1.10
Employees
223K
Next earnings
2026-10-28
Rating & verdict historyoldest → newest
  1. ✓
  2. ✗
  3. ✓
  4. ✓
  5. ✓
  6. ✓
  7. ✗
DateCallOutcomeReturnTakeaway
2026-08-14Subscribers——Subscribe to read
2026-08-13Subscribers——Subscribe to read
2026-08-12Subscribers——Subscribe to read
2026-08-11Subscribers——Subscribe to read
2026-08-10Subscribers
±3.84%

    • 71.4% correct+1.67% avg moveBUY 0/0 · HOLD 5/6 · SELL 0/1

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    2026-08-07SELL✗+1.21%Reduce MSFT exposure by trimming 15-20% of the existing position into the $505-516 resistance zone while maintaining an 80-85% core position, with a hard trailing stop at the 10 EMA ($464.71). The structural thesis remains intact (17.8% Q4 revenue growth, 46.8% operating margin, $76B cash, golden cross), but near-term risks are asymmetric: RSI at 78.15 after a +42% six-week rally, 36% Fed hike probability repriced +24pp in one week, and 21.3x forward P/E create unfavorable entry quality into a binary macro window.
    2026-08-06HOLD✓+0.03%Maintain MSFT at $499.86 with a HOLD rating given poor risk/reward at RSI 78 after a 28% six-session rally. Implement a cost-neutral collar (short $510-520 calls / long $470-480 puts, 30-60 day) ahead of Friday's NFP binary event to address prior lessons where protective hedges were endorsed but not executed. Scale into the position at $455 (10 EMA) at 25% of normal sizing, with full evaluation triggers pre-committed as binary re-evaluation points.
    2026-08-05HOLD✓+2.54%Maintain MSFT at ~$487 with HOLD rating; do not add at current RSI 76 levels after the +25% weekly rally. Implement the previously-endorsed protective put hedge (60-90 day, ~10% OTM, 1-2% of position value) as the highest priority action, and tighten the stop zone to $454-462 with $421 as hard invalidation. Pre-commit binary re-evaluation triggers and stage tactical adds at $447-462 (one-third) and $415-430 (two-thirds).
    2026-08-04HOLD✓-1.09%Analysts maintain a HOLD rating on MSFT at $492, converging on the view that current levels offer unfavorable risk/reward for incremental longs despite structurally intact fundamentals (FY26 revenue +17.8% YoY, operating margins at 46.8%, Azure AI monetization). Three calibrations are recommended: permit a tactical 15-20% sizing add on confirmed breakout above $500 with expanding volume (softening the prior rigid no-adds rule), trim ~20% from prior sizing to account for ATR +43% expansion, and add a modest protective hedge (60-90 day, ~10% OTM puts, 1-2% of position value) to bound Nvidia earnings binary risk on Aug 26.
    2026-08-03HOLD✓+1.06%Maintain MSFT core position entered at $462; do not add full-size at $487.65 given stretched technicals (RSI 78.28, +14.4% above 10-EMA, +5.7% above upper Bollinger Band, ~3.65 ATRs above fast average). Allow tactical add of 15–20% sizing if MSFT consolidates in the $470–$480 zone over 1–3 sessions without breaking structure. Volatility-adjusted trailing stop at 1.5× ATR (~$25) below recent swing high, with $432 (200-DMA close) as hard structural invalidation; trim into strength rejected.
    2026-07-31HOLD✗+4.93%Maintain the core MSFT position at $464.72 with a HOLD rating; allow tactical adds of 15-20% normal sizing at current levels or on a shallow pullback to the $440-448 upper Bollinger Band zone. The structural stop moves to $432.26 (200-DMA close) rather than the tighter 10-EMA at $412.67, as the prior July 30, 2026 lesson demonstrated that structurally-anchored breakouts often fail to deliver the pullbacks required by classic mean-reversion entries. Full tactical add sizing (25-30%) is rejected as over-aggressive given RSI at 74.5 and the $32 gap with a 75% historical fill rate; concentration review and any trimming are deferred to the next rebalance window.
    2026-07-30HOLD✓+3.02%Maintain MSFT exposure without adding at current levels; the $451 entry offers poor risk/reward given technical overextension (+15.5% on 3× volume, RSI 71.8, close $28.19 above upper Bollinger Band). Trim ~20% if materially overweight; otherwise stand pat. Scale adds on pullback: first tranche at $440–$445, second tranche at $420–$425, with stop at $410–$415 (1.5× new ATR of $15.90).