Netflix, Inc.
Streams licensed and original film and TV to paying subscribers, with an ad-supported tier and live events layered on top.
| Date | Call | Outcome | Return | Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Subscribers | — | — | Subscribe to read |
| 2026-08-13 | Subscribers | — | — | Subscribe to read |
| 2026-08-12 | Subscribers | — | — | Subscribe to read |
| 2026-08-11 | Subscribers | — | — | Subscribe to read |
| 2026-08-10 | Subscribers |
57.1% correct+0.61% avg moveBUY 0/1 · HOLD 3/4 · SELL 1/2
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| 2026-08-07 | HOLD | ✗ | +2.90% | Maintain Netflix (NFLX) at Hold with 60-70% residual weight from the 8/5 trim—rejecting the trader's proposed 25-33% additional trim, which would contradict the lessons log pattern and surrender mean-reversion upside. The hard stop is tightened to $70.50 (closing basis), and re-engagement to Overweight requires dual confirmation: daily close above $76.56 (50 SMA) with volume ≥80M, plus MACD line crossing above zero. The Q3 2026 earnings in late October serve as the mandatory review point. |
| 2026-08-06 | HOLD | ✓ | +0.61% | Maintain NFLX at 60-70% current weight; the technical reversal is unconfirmed with MACD still negative (-0.65), weak bounce volume at half the 30-day average, and the 50 SMA at $76 overhead. Hold is the disciplined posture until ALL THREE upgrade conditions are met: (a) daily close above $76.50 sustained 3+ sessions with volume ≥80M, (b) MACD line crosses above signal with positive histogram, (c) forward EPS stable above $3.50. Hard stop at $67.30 closing basis — below this level with volume >70M breaks the higher-low pattern and triggers reassessment toward Underweight. |
| 2026-08-05 | SELL | ✓ | -0.69% | Maintain a 60-70% residual core position in NFLX while trimming 30-40% into any relief rally toward the 50 SMA at $76.21, which should be treated as overhead resistance. The position has a hard stop at $67.18 (lower Bollinger Band) on volume exceeding 70M shares. Upgrade to Hold warranted only on sustained 3+ session close above $76.21 with MACD histogram positive and forward EPS stable above $3.50, or full re-initiation on dual confirmation of 200 SMA reclaim at $90.61 with volume and MACD positive crossover. |
| 2026-08-04 | HOLD | ✓ | +0.86% | Maintain the 60–70% NFLX weight with a hard stop at $65.08, accepting the cost-of-carry alpha drag versus SPY in any rally to avoid counter-trend entry risk. The position has upgrade triggers at $76.50 (50 SMA reclaim) plus MACD confirmation plus stable forward EPS above $3.50, with downgrade triggers at $67.60 or forward EPS below $3.00. The next formal review is at Q3 2026 earnings in late October. |
| 2026-08-03 | HOLD | ✓ | +0.33% | Maintain 60-70% position weight at current levels, rejecting further reductions given the prior Underweight already absorbed directional risk; hard stop remains at $66.91 with re-entry requiring confirmed close above $77.43 with volume ≥80M and MACD line cross above signal. Q3'26 earnings review scheduled for late October. |
| 2026-07-31 | SELL | ✗ | +2.26% | Trim 30-40% of NFLX exposure at current levels ($71-72) while retaining 60-70% as a core position, with a hard stop at $65.08 and a price target of $77.11. The Underweight rating reflects worsening technical deterioration (21.4% below 200 SMA, failed RSI bounce at 50.25, negative MACD at -1.49) combined with Q2 operational concerns (60bps operating margin compression, 28% YoY operating cash flow decline) and unfavorable macro headwinds (89% probability of zero 2026 Fed cuts), despite best-in-class fundamentals (33.4% op margin, 49.5% ROE, $25.4B TTM FCF) that support maintaining partial core exposure rather than a full exit. |
| 2026-07-30 | BUY | ✗ | -2.00% | Analyst rates NFLX Overweight with a three-tranche entry strategy: start with 35-40% position at $73-74 with hard stop at $67.60 and soft reduction trigger at $70, add second tranche on $71.50-$72.60 retest with RSI above 50 for two sessions, and reserve final tranche for close above 50-day SMA at $77.46 with positive MACD. Targets are $77.46, $91.55, and $100+ over 3-6 months. |