AMZN

Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

✗

Return

+3.29%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 5-7% (modest overweight) with a pre-authorized 10-15% trim trigger if weekly close drops below the 200 SMA at $241.68, daily close falls below $254 with declining volume and negative MACD histogram, or Q3 AWS growth comes in below 15%. A mandatory 10-15% put hedge at the $240 strike (30-45 DTE) is required to cover tail risk into the late-October catalyst cluster (Q3 earnings + FOMC), with $237 as the hard stop and tiered add triggers at $242-245 and $258.50 on volume confirmation.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.25%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at current exposure with no additions or trims at the $256-258 level. The binding 2026-10-06 reflection suppresses trim triggers given the intact 200 SMA cushion ($241.68) and positive MACD histogram, validated by the 2026-10-02 Underweight producing -0.7% alpha versus consecutive Hold days yielding +1.4% and +1.7% alpha.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.42%

Status

scored

Maintain an Underweight rating on AMZN with a calibrated 10-15% equity trim executed at the $257-$258 resistance zone (where the 50 SMA at $257.43 has capped price for two months), using scale-in sells across 2-3 sessions. The integrated put overlay (65-75% coverage at $242-243 strikes, 45-60 DTE) protects the remaining 85-90% position, with a hard stop at $240.50 below the 200 SMA at $241.68 and a trim-stop at $262 if price breaks above the 50 SMA.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.95%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at current exposure with a Hold rating. The 200 SMA at $241.51 remains intact (~3.8% cushion) and MACD histogram has flipped positive at +0.15, satisfying the co-condition filter that suppresses trim triggers per the 2026-10-02 binding reflection. Execute the Neutral Analyst's three operational enhancements (half-size MACD-confirmation re-entry, partial trim on 200 SMA break, tactical hedge) while honoring the $240 hard stop and pre-written Q3 earnings playbook with no adds or trims at current levels.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.05%

Status

scored

Trim 10-15% of AMZN equity at $251 and execute a 65-75% put overlay at $242-243 strikes (45-60 DTE), because the 50 SMA has been overhead resistance for 7+ weeks in a 1.44-beta name with negative MACD — a co-condition that mechanically overrides the default Hold and was validated by prior pure-Hold alpha failures (-0.5%, -0.7%). Set hard stop at $240.50 (below 200 SMA at $241.36) and pre-write Q3 earnings/AWS reacceleration playbook to capture Prime Day (Oct 6-7) and Anthropic IPO catalysts while capping downside.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.33%

Status

scored

Trim 10-15% of AMZN equity exposure at $248.23 (current price $248.23, 50 SMA overhead resistance for 7+ weeks) versus the trader's proposed 30-50% trim and pure Hold, applying the 2026-09-30 co-condition that warrants modest cuts even with 200 SMA at $241.22 intact when MACD is negative and beta 1.44 amplifies drift. Tighten stop to $240.50 (just below 200 SMA at $241.22, NOT the trader's $238 which sits below the structural floor), execute put overlay at 65-75% coverage, $242-243 strikes, 45-60 DTE, with no tactical shorts and re-entry triggers at $230 basing pattern or $215 post-earnings flush.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.37%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at HOLD with a 260.0 price target as the 2026-09-18 binding lesson mandates in intact-floor regimes; execute the proven 65-75% put coverage at $242-243 strikes (45-60 DTE) plus tactical call spread for Prime Day (Oct 6-7) and a $240 hard stop with zero exceptions, rejecting the SELL proposal which would repeat the 2026-09-18/2026-09-16 Underweight failure mode of conceding 1-2% underlying for marginal protection.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.01%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at current exposure; do not add or trim absent specific trigger confirmation. Execute immediate defensive overlay per the 2026-09-28 binding lesson (compress DTE to 45-60 days AND shift strikes in to $242-243) layered on top of the 2026-09-25 mandate (65-75% put coverage at decision time). Honor $240 hard stop with zero exceptions; tactical call spread for Prime Day (Oct 6-7) captures dated catalyst upside with defined risk. Q3 earnings (late October) is the natural resolution point — wait for that catalyst before committing fresh capital.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.21%

Status

scored

AMZN maintains a HOLD rating at zero incremental equity risk, implementing 65-75% put coverage at $240 strikes per the 2026-09-25 binding lesson (up from 50% in prior Holds) to defend against the coiled ATR setup with negative MACD. The thesis synthesizes the Aggressive Analyst's fortress-grade balance sheet observations with the Conservative Analyst's FCF/debt concerns, rejecting aggressive scaling below the 200 SMA at $240.94 but engaging Prime Day via a $250/$260 call spread overlay with defined risk.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.41%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 50% conviction weight with no additions into the binary catalyst window (Prime Day Oct 6-7, AWS Q3 disclosure, FOMC Oct 28-29). Execute immediate 50% put coverage (60-90 DTE $245 strikes, 1.5-2% of position value) per the 2026-09-22 binding lesson due to price below the 50 SMA ($256) with 200 SMA within 3.5% and 1.44 beta. Trim 25-33% into rallies at $254-258 resistance, with hard stop at weekly close below $240.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.12%

Status

scored

Maintain Hold on AMZN as the binding 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-22 lessons override the Research Manager's Overweight and Trader's Buy calls; price at $249 below the 50 SMA ($256) with MACD negative and histogram widening demands confirmation discipline rather than leading with phased adds. Execute immediate 50% put coverage at decision time (60-90 DTE $245 puts, ~1.5-2% of position) to prevent the passive-Hold-bleeds-alpha failure mode, with alpha-decay circuit breaker tightened to -0.15% and hard stop at weekly close below $240. Phase-in fresh capital only at $238-242 with dual stabilization signals (RSI <35 + MACD histogram narrowing) or on Path A breakout above $258 on >55M shares with MACD histogram contracting to zero and RSI reclaiming 55.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.04%

Status

scored

Maintain Hold on AMZN with immediate 50% put coverage (60-90 DTE $245 puts at 1.5-2% of position value) per the binding 2026-09-22 lesson—the structural floor at $240 remains untested but deteriorating momentum (RSI 44, MACD below zero, price below 50 SMA) and tight 3.3% cushion above the 200 SMA mandate front-loaded defensive action rather than passive-Hold alpha bleed. Upgrade to Overweight on >$258 breakout with volume >55M shares and MACD/RSI confirmation, or scale in at $238-242 on dual stabilization signals (RSI <35 + MACD histogram narrowing).

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.24%

Status

scored

Analysts unanimously recommend holding Amazon as the 200 SMA at $240.53 provides intact structural support (~6% cushion), franchise quality remains strong (30.6% ROE, $143B liquidity, 11.2% operating margin), and FCF concerns are already priced into the compressed 24.5x forward multiple. Fresh capital should be staged via two paths: Path A (1% add on confirmed close >$256.30 with $248 stop) or Path B (1.5% add on flush to $235-$245 with RSI <35 and 200 SMA hold). The binding 2026-09-21 lesson mandates a concrete alpha-decay hedge response: if AMZN underperforms SPY by -0.3% or more over 15 sessions, immediately buy 60-90 DTE $245 puts covering 50% of position at ~1.5-2% of position value.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.34%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at Hold with current exposure; the 2026-09-18 binding lesson is dispositive given intact franchise quality (30.6% ROE, $143B cash), known/priced FCF concerns, and 200 SMA at $240.42 sitting ~7% below current price. Stage fresh capital per trader's disciplined plan: 50% allocation at $230-240 flush zone with hard stop at $196, remaining 50% on confirmed breakout above $272 with volume exceeding 55M shares. Tactical trim window opens only on confirmed push into $265-$270; hard thesis stop triggers on weekly close below $240 on heavy volume.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.87%

Status

scored

The analysts converge on UNDERWEIGHT, favoring a 25-33% trim of AMZN exposure over 3-6 months while preserving 70-75% as core position. The bear case centers on structurally changed funding dynamics (Q1 2026 OCF covered only 59% of capex, $52.8B net debt issued) and a punishing valuation (0.1% FCF yield, 24.5x forward P/E), while acknowledging real bull thesis supports including 30.6% ROE, AWS reacceleration, and $143B liquidity that warrant maintaining a core long.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.00%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at current position size without adding or trimming; the 200 SMA at $240.20 held as the structural floor with a relief bounce to $251, but MACD histogram remains negative (-1.27) and short-term EMAs have not been recovered, indicating this is a bounce into resistance rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Add on the next dip only if MACD histogram contracts and RSI sustains above 50 with volume confirmation.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.13%

Status

scored

Underweight rating on AMZN reflects simultaneous presence of broken short-term momentum (MACD negative for six sessions, price below 10 EMA and 50 SMA), confirmed peer-relative weakness (underperforming GOOGL/MSFT/META), and hostile macro (10Y near 5%, no-cut probability 94-95%). Execute a 40-50% trim using a hybrid framework: half at market ($244-$247 range) immediately to reduce beta exposure, half via limit orders at $252 and $257 into resistance. Retain 50-60% as core position with structural stop at $240 (200 SMA); daily close below $240 on volume triggers additional 20% trim and put protection initiation.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.99%

Status

scored

Reduce AMZN by 40% over 3-5 trading days via TWAP at $247-$252, retaining 60% as core long-term holding given 30.6% ROE, AWS dominance, and $143B liquidity; pre-emptive trim is warranted given MACD widening negative, AMZN underperforming GOOGL/MSFT/META on every catalyst, 10Y above 5%, and recession odds at 24%—do not wait for a $254-$256 rally that requires price to rally 2.3% into a confirmed downtrend. Capitulation trigger: weekly close below $240 on volume triggers additional 20% trim plus 3-month put protection on remainder.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.02%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight as Hold rating is validated by both the 2026-08-31 momentum lesson (precluding Buy with broken short-term technicals: below 10 EMA, 50 SMA, bearish MACD cross, RSI 45.84) and the 2026-09-04 structural lesson (precluding Underweight with intact 200 SMA at $239.93 and $13.61 cushion, AWS +37% YoY, ROE 30.6%). The six-trigger mechanical architecture (Add A/B, Trim, Hard Stop, Time-based review, Alpha-decay circuit breaker) is the alpha-generation mechanism per validated 2026-09-09 (+0.4%) and 2026-09-10 (+1.1%) protocols versus the bare-Hold failure (-1.3%) on 2026-09-08.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.26%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at benchmark weight (2-3% of portfolio) with Hold rating as the intellectually honest call given simultaneous bull and bear cases. Implement six-trigger architecture centered on the September 16-17 FOMC binary: add on close above $260 with volume and MACD confirmation, trim on close below $251 with volume and bearish MACD cross, hard stop at $239.80 (200 SMA). Consider deep OTM put spreads ($250/$235, 60-90 DTE) at less than 1% of position value as cheap insurance against hawkish FOMC surprise, with 15-session alpha-decay circuit breaker at -0.3% vs. SPY to force reassessment if no triggers fire.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.94%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight with six mechanical triggers including a capitulation add below $244, a momentum reclaim add above $263.66, a trim at $252.83, a hard stop at $239.62, a 15-session time-based review, and a -0.3% alpha-decay circuit breaker versus SPY. The report explicitly rejects the trader's proposed stop at $239.62 as "structurally incoherent" (3.3% above the $232 entry) and identifies $247.50 as the coherent stop level. Hold posture is unanimous across all analysts and appropriate given intact structural pillars (AWS reacceleration, fortress balance sheet, 30.6% ROE) alongside deteriorating tactical signals (negative MACD, lower-high sequence, flat normalized EPS) that prevent directional conviction ahead of Q3 2026 earnings in late October.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.20%

Status

scored

AMZN rated HOLD at 2-3% portfolio weight with 15% starter sizing and $244 hard stop. The trigger-based framework captures +0.5% alpha versus the bare-Hold failure (-1.3% alpha), with explicit entry, trim, and exit rules tied to technical levels ($263.66 add, $252.83 trim, $239 stop) and RSI/MACD confirmation. Elevated $6.47 ATR and three binary catalysts (CPI this week, Trump-Xi 9/24, Q3 earnings late October) justify the conservative sizing, with a 15-session alpha-decay circuit breaker forcing reassessment if the position underperforms SPY by -0.3%.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.78%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight with a HOLD rating as the structural floors (200 SMA at $239, rising revenue 16.6% YoY, margin expansion 11.8%→13.1%, ROE 30.6%) remain intact while short-term momentum is broken (MACD negative -1.12, price below 10 EMA $258.74). The four-trigger framework governs action: Add A on washout below $252 with RSI <35, Add B on reclaim above $270 with volume and MACD confirmation, Trim on 50 SMA/Bollinger lower breach at $252.83, and Hard stop at $200 SMA $239. A 15-session time-based review with -0.3% vs. SPY alpha-decay circuit breaker prevents passive bleed on this Hold position.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.60%

Status

scored

Trim AMZN to 3-3.5% weight given converging bearish signals (FCF deterioration from +$32.9B to -$18.2B, broken momentum, elevated valuation at 26-29x P/E) while maintaining ~3% floor exposure; re-add to 4.5-5% only on close above $263.66 with volume and momentum confirmation, or trim further to 2-2.5% if price falls below $252.83 (50 SMA).

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.15%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at its current 2-3% portfolio weight without adding at $254-255 or trimming ahead of Friday's NFP print. Hold the $245 hard stop and consider a small tactical hedge (0.5-1% of position value via puts or put spreads) around the binary catalyst to neutralize asymmetric gap risk on this 1.45-beta name. Await either a confirmed daily close above $260 on >35M volume with positive MACD (upgrade trigger) or below $250 on >35M volume with bearish MACD cross (trim trigger) before taking directional action.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.54%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight with a HOLD rating, avoiding adds above $255 given 73-80x normalized P/E and 16% forward EPS compression into the $176B capex cycle. Execute a three-trigger framework—Add triggers at pullback to $220-230 zone (RSI>40, bullish MACD) or breakout above $263 on >35M shares; Trim trigger at daily close <$250.64 on >35M shares with bearish MACD; Hard stop at $228—with a 15-session time-based review to prevent the passive alpha decay pattern documented in the prior Hold.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.02%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight with no new capital deployment, as the bull case (16.6% YoY revenue growth, 30%+ ROE, AWS +37% reacceleration, fortress balance sheet) justifies staying long but not adding given broken momentum and 8 bearish indicators. The two-sided trigger framework (Overweight on close >$260.33 with MACD positive on >35M shares; Underweight on close <$251.61 on >35M shares) mechanically resolves the bull/bear debate rather than guessing direction, with hard invalidation at $249.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.87%

Status

scored

Upgrade from Hold to Overweight based on documented alpha-destruction pattern across prior Hold calls (-0.3% to -2.2%), recommending phased 3% starter position with 1.5-2% add on confirmed close above $260.72 (10 EMA) with volume confirmation, targeting 4.5-5% maximum weight versus reckless 5-7% allocation, with stop at $248 and hard stop at $237.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.50%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at current 2-3% portfolio weight; do not chase the 4% NVIDIA-partnership-driven move at $266 as asymmetric risk/reward remains poor for fresh capital. Structural pillars (AWS +37% reacceleration, $143B cash, 30.6% ROE) remain intact, supporting Hold rather than trim or add. Add triggers are pullback to $248-256 with RSI>40 and bullish reversal, or confirmed daily close >$284 on >40M volume with MACD histogram positive for 2+ sessions; trim only on confirmed structural break below $248 on expanding volume.

Outcome

✗

Return

+3.97%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight while executing a 20-25% trim at current levels ($256) or on any failed rally to $260-265 to neutralize documented alpha decay from three consecutive Hold calls that produced -0.3% to -2.2% alpha bleed. Layer a tightened 4-6 month $244-$272 collar (±5%) with tiered add-on triggers requiring 10 EMA reclaim at $260.93 with volume >50M and positive MACD (25% increment), followed by 50 SMA confirmation and price push through $267 with MACD positive (another 25%). Hard stops at $238.59 (200 SMA) for existing positions and $250.88 for new entries.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.54%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight with a tightened ±5% collar ($248-$274, 4-6 months) based on three-way analyst convergence on Hold. Tactical trim 10-15% into $266-$270 on >40M volume with MACD histogram turning positive; hold $244 hard stop. Add-on triggers: close >$266 on >25M volume, OR pullback to $250-$251 with RSI>40 and bullish reversal. No fresh adds at $260.28. The symmetric upside/downside profile (9% to $284 vs. 4% to $250.59) favors preservation over expansion. Q3 2026 earnings (late October) is the binary re-evaluation event.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.30%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight with tightened collar strikes to ±5% of spot ($248-$274) for 4-6 months, replacing the prior 40-point collar that failed to neutralize drag. Layer an AMZN-specific $255/$240 put spread (~$15 wide, 8-10 weeks) for Q3 earnings rather than broad-market QQQ puts, which carry basis risk. Do not trim into $261 resistance or add below the 10 EMA — both are poor execution; instead, trim 10-15% on any rally to $268-$272 with volume >40M and positive MACD histogram, with $248 daily-close as the only structural reassessment trigger.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.39%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 2-3% portfolio weight with collar-protected execution (240-280 strikes, 4-6 months). Do not initiate new exposure at $262 — wait for one of three confirmed triggers: pullback to ≤$238 with RSI<35, breakout ≥$287 on volume >20-day average with positive MACD, or post-NVDA clarity Aug 27+. Trailing stop $249 (50 SMA); hard stop $238 (200 SMA). Time-box reassessment for Sept 5 if no directional resolution after Nvidia catalyst clears.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.33%

Status

scored

Trim AMZN by 20-25% at current levels (~$258) and implement a 240-280 collar over 4-6 months as the default protective structure, with a stop at $248 (50 SMA). The Underweight rating reflects a roughly symmetric to slightly negative-skewed asymmetry (10-12% upside vs 9-16% downside) combined with bearish momentum and clustered binary catalysts including NVDA earnings, FOMC September, and Q3 2026 results. The $250 price target is anchored to testing of the 50 SMA in the base case, with re-entry requiring VWMA reclaim at $269 on >50M shares with positive MACD, or RSI washout to ≤40 with bullish MACD cross.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.57%

Status

scored

Trim AMZN by 30-35% at ~$260 and deploy a 4-6 month 240-280 collar as the default protective structure, with contingent additional 10-15% trim if price closes below $255 on elevated volume. The Underweight rating is justified by the slightly negative-skewed setup with bearish momentum readouts (9 consecutive lower highs, MACD bearish crossover, expanding negative histogram) combined with ±8-12% catalyst asymmetry at boundary, while maintaining 65-70% core positioning to participate in intact structural upside anchored to Q3 2026 earnings.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.16%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at benchmark weight (≤4-5% equity) with a 240-280 collar as the default protective layer over a 4-6 month horizon anchored to Q3 2026 earnings. Neither the 7-12% upside to $284-$297 nor the 6-17% downside to $249-$219 creates an asymmetric entry at $265.84, so patient execution architecture—waiting for confirmed triggers at $271.96 (upside) or $258.73 (downside)—outperforms both aggressive adding and preemptive trimming in this ±5-10% symmetric range setup.

Outcome

✓

Return

+2.46%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at benchmark weight (≤4-5% of equity) with collar-protected execution as the default protective layer, given sub-13% upside versus 9-16% downside symmetry at $259.45. Prior decision history (2026-08-17, 08-14, 08-13, 08-06 lessons) directly applies: structural floor + tactical deterioration + no confirmed breakdown = collar-with-trim-flexibility empirically dominates fresh capital deployment and preemptive trimming. Time horizon is 4-6 months anchored to Q3 2026 earnings.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.71%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at Hold with a 240-280 strike collar (4-6 months) as the default execution layer, given the genuinely balanced risk/reward asymmetry (~13% upside vs 9-16% downside) at current levels. No fresh capital until either confirmed 10 EMA ($265) reclaim with positive MACD histogram on volume, or successful 50 SMA retest with bullish reversal, while trimming 15-20% into any $274-278 rally. Structural floor (AWS +37% YoY, $143B cash, 30.6% ROE) forecloses Underweight, but near-term deterioration (76% FCF collapse, MACD negative, declining volume) forecloses Overweight.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.51%

Status

scored

Trim AMZN 20-25% in the $262-265 zone to reduce catalyst-window exposure while preserving 75-80% core participation in the intact AWS reacceleration thesis; layer a 4-6 month collar with strikes in the 240-280 range for capital-efficient tail protection, as the realized range has proven tighter than the modeled 6-12% downside scenario.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.94%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at benchmark weight with Hold rating, as the 6-13% upside vs 6-12% downside asymmetry does not justify aggressive addition at current levels. Convert this Hold into active risk management via either a 10-15% tactical trim in the $265-275 zone or a 3-month 250-270 put spread at 2-3% of position value, with the choice depending on concentration threshold.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.80%

Status

scored

Trim AMZN by 20-25% (targeting $267-275 zone with additional reduction toward $280), while maintaining a 75-80% core position to preserve AWS reacceleration optionality. Re-evaluate on Q3 2026 earnings as the dominant catalyst, with re-entry triggers at $247-250 (RSI <45, MACD bullish cross) or confirmed close above $284 on volume >70M shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.83%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at current exposure while trimming 10% ahead of Wednesday's binary CPI print to neutralize tail risk and preserve redeployment capacity. Entry triggers include pullback into the $258-$267 zone with stops below $247.62, or confirmed daily close above $284 on volume greater than 40M shares, with a potential 260-280 put spread (2-3% of position) as a capital-efficient hedge. Time horizon is 4-6 weeks, anchored to Q2 2026 earnings as the dominant resolution catalyst for the FCF trajectory and AWS growth disclosure gap.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.09%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at current position size as the most defensible stance—neither adding at the unfavorable ~1:1.6 risk-reward near $278 nor preemptively trimming without a confirmed breakdown serves the portfolio. Use the trader's structured execution playbook with defined add zones ($270-272), trim zones ($285-287), and explicit hard stop at $266 daily close on expanding volume, anchored to the Q2 2026 earnings catalyst as the dominant re-evaluation trigger.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.32%

Status

scored

Maintain AMZN at 4-5% of equity without adding at current $274 levels due to unfavorable risk-reward of 0.5:1 (10 points up vs 19 points down to $255 stop). The neutral trigger-based framework resolves the debate: wait for either a breakout above $284 with >75M shares confirmation or a pullback to $263 near the 10 EMA with reversal signals before adding to the position, with a hard structural stop at $247 (50 SMA breach).

Outcome

–

Return

+0.82%

Status

scored

Trim 20-25% of AMZN position above $278 to build dry powder for re-entry at $260-265 or add-back above $284 on strong volume, with a trailing stop at $260 and pre-committed reduction ahead of the Aug 12 CPI print. The structural thesis (AWS +37%, $143B cash, Anthropic optionality) supports maintaining 75-80% exposure, while tactical concerns (forward EPS -17%, Q1 FCF -$18.2B, debt +$57B in 90 days) and the binary CPI catalyst justify Underweight over Hold. If AMZN opens below $260 on Aug 13, accept the exit and re-evaluate.