Maintain JNJ as a HOLD with a 12-18 month horizon, as the structural bull case is substantially priced in after the 60% rally and the technical setup shows unambiguous momentum deterioration (MACD bearish cross, RSI cooling, ATR +40%). Entry is disciplined: 2-3% add on 50 SMA retest at $247.73 with RSI > 45, scaling to 5% on 200 SMA test at $226.49 with MACD confirmation, with a stop below $245 invalidating the constructive setup and fair value near $270.