JPM

Outcome

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Return

—

Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

✓

Return

+0.47%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at ~1% portfolio weight as the fourth consecutive Hold on this quality-franchise + broken-momentum template. The sizing is validated by the 10/07 outcome producing +1.0% alpha; at 1% the insurance carry is sustainable but at 2-3% it bleeds 0.5-1.0% alpha weekly. Pre-committed Q3 2026 earnings scenarios and mandatory reassessment clauses (3-week, -2% relative-to-SPY) operationalize the Hold with executable discipline.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.56%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at ~1% weight (reduced from 2-3%) to reflect continued alpha bleed from carrying costs with no catalyst resolution; enforce hard stop at $312 closing-basis and trim trigger at sustained close below $318.90 (200 SMA) on above-average volume. Reject pre-confirmation scale-in per 10/06 binding lesson and reject Underweight per 10/02 failure mode pattern. Enforce -2% relative-to-SPY reassessment trigger and 3-week mandatory reassessment clause ahead of Q3 earnings catalyst.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.51%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at ~2% portfolio weight (reduced from 3% per 10/05 binding reflection) with hard stop at $318, below 200 SMA at $320.37. No new buying at $331.28; adding into four stacked resistance layers ($336, $345, $352, $353) with broken momentum into Q3 binary catalyst is poor risk/reward. Active architecture includes pre-committed Q3 earnings scenarios, -2% relative-to-SPY reassessment trigger, and 3-week mandatory reassessment clause to convert passive Hold into executable discipline.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.33%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at ~3% portfolio weight through Q3 2026 earnings catalyst without adding or trimming, rejecting both aggressive accumulation (asymmetric R/R with four stacked resistance layers) and underweighting (franchise floor held per 9/28 lesson). Hold with pre-committed Q3 scenarios, -2% relative-to-SPY trigger, closing-basis stops at $320.27/$351.82, and 3-week mandatory reassessment clause converts passive drift into executable discipline.

Outcome

–

Return

0.00%

Status

scored

JPM is rated Underweight with an active architecture combining a 20-30% trim to ~75% of benchmark weight plus a long $310-315 / short $280-290 put-spread overlay expiring post-Q3 earnings to capture convexity; the stop is set at $348-350 (internally coherent, above 50 SMA) rather than the trader's structurally invalid $365 stop at resistance. Pre-committed Q3 earnings scenarios (Oct 13 binary catalyst with brutal comp: Q2's $7.70 EPS included ~$4.39B in pretax special items) and a -2% relative-to-SPY reassessment trigger convert this from passive Underweight to active management, directly addressing the 9/28 binding lesson that linear trimming alone captured only insurance value.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.24%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at benchmark weight (~3.5%) as all three analysts converge on Hold — fundamentals (17.79% ROE, $33B+ buyback, NIM tailwind) support maintaining exposure while deteriorating momentum (RSI ~35, MACD -1.83 expanding, distribution volume) and four stacked resistance layers ($340/$345/$352.89/$353) argue against new longs ahead of the Oct 13 Q3 binary catalyst. The report rejects the Aggressive analyst's 4% overweight scale-in into known event risk and rejects drift toward Underweight due to the deep franchise floor ($319.98 200 SMA), enforcing closing-basis stops (not wick stops), a -2% relative-to-SPY reassessment trigger, and pre-committed Q3 earnings scenarios ranging from Overweight-add to Underweight-exit depending on whether EPS prints above/below/within the $6.00-$6.50 range.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.71%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at neutral weight with Hold rating as all analysts converge on this stance. Quality arguments are strong (17.8% ROE, 35% net margin, $45B capital return) but momentum is broken (RSI 31.62, MACD -2.00 expanding, close at session low $330.83) with Q3 earnings base-effect risk ahead. Active architecture enforces no adds below $345 with tiered triggers for Overweight, closing-basis stops (not wick stops), and pre-committed earnings scenarios with a -2% relative-to-SPY reassessment trigger per the 9/29 binding lesson.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.24%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at HOLD with active architecture converting passive flat-weight into operational discipline. Four layers of overhead resistance ($342-353) with broken momentum (RSI 34.72, MACD -4.40) and imminent Q3 base-effect risk make adding below $345 poor risk/reward despite elite fundamentals (17.8% ROE, 5.9% yield). Enforce a mandatory 3-week reassessment clause to avoid the failure mode of complex architecture with zero executions.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.48%

Status

scored

Trim JPM to 50-70% of benchmark weight based on confirmed technical breakdown (below all major moving averages with expanding MACD histogram), brutal Q3 EPS comp (normalized Q2 closer to $6.85-7.00 vs consensus ~$6.00), and unfavorable macro (42% Fed hike odds creating credit-cycle headwind). Hard stop at $319.74 (200 SMA); add trigger at $353.25 with RSI >55 confirmation. Mandatory 3-week reassessment if neither trigger fires. Recommend $300-310 puts for hedging; explicitly avoid near-money collar structures per the 9/25 lesson.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.89%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at current weight with active architecture rather than passive Hold. The decision incorporates a refined collar hedge (long $325 put / short $385 call), pre-committed add triggers (close >$355 with RSI >55, ATR <$6), and a 15-20% trim contingency if the 200 SMA ($319.54) breaks on above-average volume and holds 2-3 sessions. Three pre-defined Q3 earnings scenarios (bull: add 25% on pullback; base: maintain; bear: exit 50-75%) remove emotional decision-making around the mid-October binary catalyst, with a mandatory 3-week reassessment clause if neither trigger fires.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.33%

Status

scored

Establish an Overweight position in JPM through disciplined tiered accumulation starting with Tier 1 at $337 (~1% portfolio weight), adding on confirmation-gated dips to Tier 2 at $325-329 and Tier 3 at $319/200 SMA, with maximum exposure capped at 2.5-3% and a hard stop at $305 (below 200 SMA) to accommodate the $6.80 ATR volatility regime. Mandatory thesis reassessment required at Q3 2026 earnings mid-October, with price target of $370 over a 3-6 month tactical horizon.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.31%

Status

scored

Maintain Hold rating on JPM with an active two-trigger add architecture: (1) 2% add if price enters $319-325 zone with reversal candle, RSI >30, and MACD histogram contracting; (2) 2-3% add if price reclaims 10 EMA ($347.67) on above-average volume with RSI >40 and MACD bullish cross. A mandatory 15-20% trim to Underweight is triggered if neither add fires within three weeks OR price closes below $319 on above-average volume, with stops on residual positions placed at the $311 structural level.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.73%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at HOLD with active tactical architecture rather than passive flat-weighting, as the franchise quality (17.8% ROE, $25.51B NII, $1.65 dividend) does not justify adding beyond 3-4% at current $340 given insufficient risk/reward (downside to $319 is 6.2% vs upside to $353 is only 3.8%). Execute disciplined tiered adds at $319-325 stabilization or $349.92 reclaim, but trim 15-20% of position if price stalls below $319 for 5-7 sessions, converting this from passive Hold to active management per the binding 9/21 lesson; mandatory reassessment at Q3 earnings mid-October.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.42%

Status

scored

Analysts and trader converge on Hold, validating prior 9/14 and 9/18 decision history showing flat-weight Hold structurally underweights alpha during known catalyst windows. The investment thesis holds JPM as a best-in-class franchise ($756B liquidity, $50B annualized capital return, 17.79% ROE) warranting continued ownership, but current technical deterioration (lower highs, MACD bearish cross, RSI 48) and Q2 normalization risks ($4.39B special items, ~16x P/E) create insufficient margin of safety for fresh capital deployment—classified as "great company, suboptimal trade" requiring tactical execution architecture rather than flat exposure.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.68%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM core exposure at ~$350 with a protective stop tightened to $342 (two ATR below current) ahead of mid-October Q3 earnings; defer all sizing decisions to the catalyst that will empirically resolve the bull/bear dispute, avoiding premature trimming into $358-$360 strength or adding beyond the core position.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.10%

Status

scored

Execute a 25-30% defensive trim of JPM into the $352-354 zone (50 SMA/10 EMA confluence) over 1-2 weeks rather than waiting for the prior $352-356 range that has consistently under-filled; hard stop on residual 70-75% position at $338 closing basis. The bear case is worsening (MACD histogram at -1.27 is the worst reading in decision history) but the franchise floor remains real with 17.8% ROE, $33B buyback, and 10% buffer to 200 SMA at $318, making a full Sell inappropriate. Mandatory reassessment at Q3 2026 earnings mid-October.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.11%

Status

scored

Execute a 30-35% defensive trim of JPM exposure via staged execution (selling 15-17% into the $352-354 resistance zone and 15-18% on a confirmed close below $348.78 with volume >10M), while maintaining a core 65-70% position backed by the structural franchise floor (17.8% ROE, $48.2B capital return, 200 SMA at $318).

Outcome

–

Return

-1.01%

Status

scored

Trim 30-35% of JPM positions at $351-354 given deteriorating macro conditions and technical deterioration (MACD negative 27 sessions, RSI collapsed from 68.92 to 47.45, lower Bollinger breach). Maintain 65-70% core position with hard stop at $348 to preserve Q3 earnings catalyst optionality while reducing to neutral-weight bank exposure to reflect 1:3-1:5 asymmetric downside risk.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.67%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at $352 with HOLD rating and execute a 10-15% defensive trim via hybrid trigger (rally to $360+, OR 3 sessions, OR MACD histogram deterioration to -1.0), whichever fires first. The HOLD is maintained because the 8/21 elevated bar for Underweight is unmet (50 SMA at $351-352 tested but not broken on volume) and the franchise floor ($317.78 200 SMA, 17.79% ROE, $52B annualized capital returns) is intact. The 8/25 binding four-technical caution rule (MACD bearish cross, sub-10 EMA, sub-VWMA, distribution pattern) blocks any fresh capital deployment, including the Neutral Analyst's partial add proposal, until post-FOMC resolution.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.71%

Status

scored

Execute a 25-35% defensive trim of JPM via hybrid triggers (rally to $360-363, 3 trading sessions, or MACD histogram -1.0), reducing to 50-75% benchmark weight while preserving a core position. Re-add triggers set at $338-342 (with confirmed close, bullish reversal candle, volume >7M, positive MACD histogram) or above $366 on volume >7M with MACD bullish re-cross; hard stop at $348.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.76%

Status

scored

Analysts maintain HOLD on JPM at $353, citing intact structural quality (17.8% ROE, 42% efficiency, $33B buybacks) against an uncertain tactical backdrop (12 sessions below 10 EMA/VWMA, MACD -0.98, third test of 50 SMA). A 10% defensive trim is mandated via hybrid trigger (rally to $360+, 3 trading sessions, or MACD -1.0) ahead of binary catalysts (CPI Friday, FOMC 9/17, Q3 earnings mid-October), with an add zone at $349-351 for 7-8% incremental sizing on confirmation.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.32%

Status

scored

Analysts maintain HOLD on JPM at $354.71, rejecting both aggressive buying at $349-351 and underweight positioning. The 8/25 binding lesson blocks adding into the current setup with five stacked caution signals (MACD bearish cross at -0.89, price below 10 EMA at $356.42, VWMA at $355.77, Bollinger middle at $357.66, and four consecutive lower highs). A hybrid trim architecture combining price ($360-366), time (3 sessions/Sept 17 Fed), and momentum triggers (MACD histogram -1.0) has been validated by recent alpha capture, with October 345 puts recommended as an event-targeted hedge for the Fed and early Q3 earnings window.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.34%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at $353.51 on Hold; the franchise floor (17.79% ROE, $5.02T balance sheet, $52B annualized capital returns) supports current levels, but aggressive analyst's entry at $353.51 with $5.51 stop is reckless given FOMC catalyst window and stalling NII momentum (0.6% sequential growth). A 15-20% defensive trim is authorized on rally to $360-366, within 3 trading sessions, or MACD histogram deterioration to -1.0—whichever triggers first—with hard stop at $348.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.43%

Status

scored

Execute a 20-25% defensive trim of JPM rather than holding or full selling, scaling sells opportunistically into the $363-366 resistance zone over 1-2 sessions. This is an operationally-driven Underweight (not conviction), justified by the 9/3 binding lesson authorization after 4-6 weeks of unfired triggers and stacked caution signals (MACD bearish cross, RSI deterioration, distribution volume, elevated valuation). Reject the trader's $375 stop as structurally inconsistent with the bear case, and set a $338 hard stop on residual exposure. Q3 2026 earnings mid-October is the mandatory catalyst gate for reassessment.

Outcome

✗

Return

-0.94%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at Hold with no fresh capital deployment at $362, as the risk/reward asymmetry is unfavorable with approximately 2% upside to the $366.50 resistance cluster versus 4-6% downside to the 50 SMA at $349. MACD has been bearish for 9 sessions into verified resistance, with multiple binary catalysts (FOMC September 17, G-SIB buffer resolution, CEO succession, Q3 earnings mid-October) sitting within a six-week window.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.64%

Status

scored

Analysts recommend reducing JPM exposure by 40-50% to below benchmark weight, citing stretched valuation at 14.24x forward P/E (25% above 10-year average) and multiple stacked caution signals including negative MACD for 14 sessions and ATR compression at 5.89. The decision avoids an aggressive SELL (franchise floor intact with 17.79% ROE and $52B annualized capital returns) and establishes two mechanical re-entry triggers: Tranche A above $358.08 on volume >7M with MACD confirmation, or Tranche B below $350.37 triggering full thesis reassessment.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.36%

Status

scored

JPM remains on Hold with no new capital deployment at current levels ($354.95), preserving the bullish directional conviction in pre-committed trigger-based entry architecture rather than acting on the aggressive analyst's structural case. The build-to-target is explicitly deferred until the September 17 FOMC outcome and Q3 2026 earnings validate NII trajectory and credit quality, with tranche entries triggered only on specific price, volume, and technical confirmations at $347-350 or $357-358.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.30%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at benchmark weight (Hold) given the franchise quality is too powerful to abandon but the $356 entry point sits at 52-week highs with failed technical breakouts and Q3 catalysts (card delinquency, Fed formula, September FOMC) creating asymmetric downside risk. Pre-commit to tiered add triggers at $340-348, $358+, and $367.62+ with half-position sizing per tranche, while Q3 2026 earnings mid-October serves as the mandatory reassessment gate to resolve Q2's cyclical peak distortion and NII trajectory.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.45%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at benchmark weight given the asymmetric risk/reward at current levels (~$358, ~3% upside to $366 upper Bollinger vs ~3.2% downside to $346 50-DMA). The analysis rejects both Overweight (normalized P/E 16–17x, not 14.3x; MACD bearish cross with declining VWMA) and Underweight (50-DMA holding twice in August; 17.79% ROE franchise floor intact). Pre-committed tiered adds at $346 and $335 with hard stop at $317; Q3-26 earnings in mid-October is the mandatory reassessment gate.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.96%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at benchmark weight with pre-committed tiered entry triggers: add 25% at $340–$346 on bullish reversal candle plus volume >7M, another 25% at $330–$335 on macro-deterioration flush, and reserve final 25% for confirmed close >$367.62 on volume >6M with positive MACD histogram cross. Sell $370-strike calls at 30–45 DTE on 25–50% of position notional to harvest elevated implied vol premium into Jackson Hole and Q3 earnings, with trim zone at $363–$366 and hard stop at $335. Q3 2026 earnings mid-October is the mandatory reassessment gate.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.64%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at neutral weight with a pre-committed tiered add framework targeting $340-345 (Tranche 1), $330-335 (Tranche 2), or breakout above $366.50 (Tranche 3), each sized at half the original position with hard stop at $335. Q3 2026 earnings mid-October is the mandatory reassessment gate for earnings quality clarity and adjusted EPS guidance re-rating.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.05%

Status

scored

Initiate a 25% starter position at $356.69 with 75% dry powder reserved for tiered adds at $348 (with MACD turning positive and bullish reversal) or $360 (with positive MACD, RSI >60, and volume confirmation). Hard stop set at $343.50, moving to $344.50 if Tranche 2 fires, with a 10-trading-session time stop as a contingency if neither add trigger materializes.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.08%

Status

scored

JPM remains Hold at $356.39 as the unanimous consensus, with the rating reflecting a fortress franchise (17.79% ROE, $8.79B/quarter buyback) that prevents Underweight while unfavorable risk-reward (~3% upside to $367.62 upper Bollinger vs ~3.5% downside to $344.39 50 SMA) prevents fresh capital deployment. The disciplined tiered framework commits to adding at $342-346 on 50 SMA reversal, $330-335 on macro deterioration, or $355-357 on technical repair, with a hard stop at $335 and mandatory Q3 2026 earnings reassessment mid-October.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.37%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at neutral weight with a measured 10-15% tactical trim at current levels ($351.58), keeping the $340 hard stop and December $340 put hedge as tail insurance, with a pre-staged reload order at $325-335 (200 SMA zone) for re-engagement on confirmed technical break. Five bearish momentum signals (RSI rollover, MACD negative, VWMA distribution, three closes below 50 SMA, declining volume) at Forward PEG of 2.0x with ~1:1 near-term R/R justify the measured trim over passive Hold or aggressive underweight, while the structurally intact franchise thesis requires only position management rather than re-evaluation.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.01%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at neutral weight with corrected $335 hard stop following unanimous Hold consensus across Research Manager, Trader, and all three risk analysts; deploy capital in tiered tranches with 25% at $351, 25% at 50-SMA reversal confirmation, and 50% reserved for confirmed 10-EMA reclaim with volume. Retain December $340 put hedge as cheap tail insurance to address near-term 1:1 R/R asymmetry and the prior-decision record showing -0.8% to -1.9% alpha in similar setups. Q3 2026 earnings mid-October is mandatory reassessment gate for EPS sustainability, trading revenue normalization after +27.9% QoQ securities expansion, and NII trajectory under 86% no-cut pricing.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.60%

Status

scored

JPM shares a unanimous Hold consensus driven by a fragile technical setup at $357 with ~1:1 risk/reward (bear fair value ~$352.50 below spot), four bearish momentum signals at a 2.69x P/B cyclical-peak multiple, and macro tail risks underpriced by the 85% no-cut consensus. Maintain current exposure without adding at current levels; deploy a tiered framework (25% tranches at $355-357/$342-346/$330-335 plus confirmation reserve) while retaining the December $340 put hedge and the $335 hard stop. Q3 2026 earnings mid-October is the mandatory reassessment gate.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.65%

Status

scored

JPMorgan remains on Hold with a price target of $370, as the unanimous consensus across four of five analysts (Research Manager, Trader, Conservative Analyst, and Neutral Analyst) overrides the lone Aggressive Analyst dissent; the position offers a measured tactical add trigger at $356-$360 (25-50% initial tranche deployment) with a $345 stop and $340 structural floor, while retaining December $340 puts as cheap tail insurance (1.5-2.5% of position cost); Q3 earnings mid-October is the mandatory reassessment gate that will resolve contested data points on EPS normalization, trading revenue, and NII trajectory.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.63%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at neutral weight; do not add at $360.96 within 1.5% of the 52-week high. The aggressive analyst's 20-30% upside case lacks base-rate support, and a confirmed MACD negative cross with volume thinned to 3.17M does not provide the evidence bar for fresh capital deployment. For existing positions, keep the core intact through the moving-average stack; for tactical adds, wait for a pullback to the $355-$357 Bollinger middle/VWMA zone.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.52%

Status

scored

Overweight rating with mandatory executed hedge represents the synthesis that respects JPM's franchise quality (17.8% ROE, 2.7x P/B, $13B/quarter capital return) without forcing technicals in confirmed distribution territory; tiered scale-in at $358/$354.62/$350 preserves entry optionality, while the December $340 put hedge is non-negotiable given 2.7x P/B premium at compressing-multiple regime and three-week proximity to mid-September FOMC.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.07%

Status

scored

Overweight rating with staged entry (75% now at ~$362.50, 25% dry powder for $355-$350 zone on positive MACD divergence confirmation) reflects the consensus that this generational franchise warrants above-benchmark exposure, though technical fragility and distribution signals at current levels prevent an aggressive full Buy. Mandatory December $340 puts (1.5-2.5% of position cost) are required per the 8/12 lesson, with a $349 stop (1.7x ATR buffer) protecting against whipsaw, 15-25% trim at $370 on volume >7M, and Q3 earnings mid-October as the non-negotiable reassessment gate.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.57%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at market weight with unanimous Hold consensus across all analysts. The three most recent Hold windows (8/7 +0.7%, 8/10 +0.9%, 8/11 +0.6%) produced +0.6-0.9% alpha versus cumulative -1.9% alpha bleed from five prior active pre-earnings positioning windows, validating market weight through the catalyst window. Do not add at $362-365 52-week highs and do not initiate pre-earnings trim; Q3 earnings mid-October is the mandatory reassessment gate.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.87%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at market weight with HOLD rating; the unanimous analyst consensus and empirical record from five prior windows showing cumulative -1.9% alpha from active pre-earnings positioning overrides both aggressive and conservative directional recommendations. Use a tiered re-entry ladder at $345-349 / $335-340 / $333.57 to capture shallow pullbacks, retain the December $340 put hedge as cheap tail insurance, and set stops at $345-348 with a $320 full-exit trigger; Q3 earnings in mid-October is the mandatory reassessment gate regardless of price action.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.63%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at market weight with HOLD rating; the unanimous analyst consensus and prior-decision record (cumulative -1.9% alpha from five prior pre-earnings windows) override both the Aggressive Analyst's bullish case and the Conservative Analyst's trim recommendation. Use a 5% trim only on confirmed volume thrust to $363.66, maintain a $345-348 volatility-calibrated trailing stop, and let Q3 earnings in mid-October serve as the mandatory reassessment gate.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.63%

Status

scored

Maintain JPM at market weight with Hold rating, avoiding pre-CPI or pre-Q3 earnings directional bets despite asymmetric risk/reward math. Position sizing remains smaller than usual; use defined re-engagement triggers at $363.53 upside breakout with volume >7M and $332 50 SMA pullback for tiered adds. Q3 earnings mid-October is the mandatory reassessment gate regardless of price action.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.34%

Status

scored

Underweight rating with a modest 10% position trim at $356, reducing concentration while maintaining core long-term exposure to this franchise compounder. Stop loss set at $331 (50 SMA structural support), with intermediate review trigger at $345 weekly close for potential additional 25% trim. Re-engagement gated on breakout above $362.81 with momentum confirmation, with Q3 earnings in mid-October serving as mandatory full reassessment point.