UPS

Outcome

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Return

—

Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

–

Return

+0.47%

Status

scored

Underweight rating maintained on UPS with $88 price target over 4-6 weeks through Q3 2026 earnings, as fundamental deterioration (480bps margin compression, 12% quarterly FCF coverage, dividend coverage at 88% TTM) outweighs the 7%+ yield's defensive floor; phased trim of ~40% total (15-20% initial tranche at ~$93-94, 20-25% bulk tranche reserved for relief bounce into $97-100 convergence zone on RSI-cross-50 mechanical trigger), with hard residual stop at $90.50 closing basis and put protection at $87-90 strike for Nov/Dec expiry.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.99%

Status

scored

UPS receives an UNDERWEIGHT rating with a $88.00 price target, reflecting structural deterioration including 480bps operating margin compression and broken FCF coverage at 1.03x. Execution is phased: ~15% trim at current $93-94 zone, with bulk ~25-30% reserved for relief bounce into $97-100 on RSI-cross-50 trigger, leaving ~40-45% residual protected by $87-90 put hedges. Pre-committed full exit triggers are dividend cut/frozen or operating margin <5.0% AND FCF coverage <1.0x at Q3 2026 earnings.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.88%

Status

scored

Maintain Underweight with a calibrated 30-40% trim executed in two phases: ~15% immediately at the current $93.11 zone, with the remaining ~15-25% held in reserve for a relief bounce into the $97-100 convergence cluster triggered mechanically by an RSI cross above 50. The residual position carries a stop at $90.50 closing basis and put protection at $87-90 strike for Nov/Dec expiry (conditional on premium below 1.5% notional), with full exit pre-committed at Q3 2026 earnings if the dividend is cut/frozen or if operating margin falls below 5.0% with FCF coverage below 1.0x.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.03%

Status

scored

Trim ~40% of existing UPS exposure via disciplined two-tranche phasing: smaller first tranche (~15%) at current ~$93-94 zone, with bulk ~25-30% reserved for relief bounce into $97-100 convergence zone (10 EMA/200 SMA/VWMA cluster) on mechanical RSI-cross-50 trigger; reject trader's $96 fresh-short entry as lower edge of resistance. Hard stop on residual at $90.50 closing basis (~1.5 ATR below current); $103 functions as thesis-invalidation not residual stop. Pre-commit full exit on Q3 2026 earnings (late October) if dividend cut/frozen OR (operating margin <5.0% AND FCF coverage <1.0x). Layer put protection on residual at $87-90 strike, Nov/Dec expiry, conditional on premium <1.5% notional.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.13%

Status

scored

Underweight UPS via disciplined two-tranche execution: ~25% trim at ~$93-94 zone and ~15% reserved for $95-96 bounce-capture zone, with stop at $90.50 closing basis. Revert to Hold/Overweight only on 10 EMA reclaim at $95.09 with RSI>50; full exit on Q3 print if dividend cut/frozen OR operating margin <5.0% AND FCF coverage <1.0x. Capital rotation allocates ~40% to short-duration IG credit, ~30% to defensive non-correlated sectors, and ~30% to dry powder, with put protection on residual at $87-90 strike.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.93%

Status

scored

Reduce UPS exposure to ~40-45% of benchmark weight through phased execution: ~15% trim at current ~$93.44 zone, with bulk ~25-30% reserved for the $97-100 relief bounce triggered by RSI crossing 50. Stop at $90.50 closing basis; layer put protection on residual at $87-90 strike, Nov/Dec expiry, conditional on premium <1.5% notional. Pre-commit full exit on Q3 print if dividend is cut/frozen or operating margin falls below 5.0% with FCF coverage below 1.0x.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.48%

Status

scored

Trim UPS exposure ~40% via phased execution, with a smaller ~15% first tranche at $93.93 and the bulk ~25-30% reserved for relief bounce into the $97-100 10 EMA/200 SMA convergence zone, maintaining residual stop at $90.50 closing basis. Hedge residual with puts at $87-90 strike, Nov/Dec expiry, if premium under 1.5% notional; pre-commit full exit if dividend is cut/frozen or if Q3 operating margin falls below 5.0% with FCF coverage under 1.0x.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.52%

Status

scored

The three-way analyst debate converges on Underweight with bearish structural deterioration confirmed (417 bps margin compression, -53% Q2 net income, FCF coverage at 1.03x), but full Sell is rejected due to yield-floor defense at 6.96% and the binding 9/28 sequencing lesson — trim ~15% now at $93.93 with bulk ~25-30% reserved for relief bounce into $97-100 (10 EMA/200 SMA convergence), hard stop at $90.50, with pre-committed full exit on Q3 earnings if dividend cut/frozen or operating margin falls below 5.0% with FCF coverage below 1.0x.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.34%

Status

scored

Phased 50-60% trim targeting 60-70% underweight vs benchmark, with ~25% executed at $94.50 and ~25% on any relief bounce into $97-100; hard stop at $88.00 and full exit pre-committed on Q3 earnings if dividend is cut/frozen or operating margin falls below 5.0% combined with FCF coverage below 1.0x. Capital rotation favors short-duration investment-grade credit and non-correlated defensives, with 30% dry powder held for post-Q3 reassessment. The deterioration thesis supports Underweight rather than full liquidation given yield-floor defense and bounded carry-decay capture potential through residual positioning.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.31%

Status

scored

Trim 40-45% of UPS long exposure via staged execution: ~20% at market near $93.96 and ~20-25% scaled into relief rallies toward $96-97, with hard stop at $90.50 (closing basis). Capital rotation targets short-duration IG credit (~40%), defensive non-correlated sectors (~30%), and dry powder (~30%) for Q3 binary reassessment. Full exit is pre-committed on Q3 print if dividend is cut/frozen OR operating margin drops below 5.0% with FCF coverage sub-1.0x.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.07%

Status

scored

Trim UPS 40-50% via two-tranche execution (20-25% at current $94-95 zone, 20-25% on relief bounce to $97-100) with residual tightened to ≤1.0% NAV, hard stop at $88 weekly close, and pre-committed full exit on Q3 earnings if dividend is cut/frozen or operating margin falls below 5.0% with FCF coverage sub-1.0x. Re-entry requires reclaiming the falling 50 SMA on >10M volume AND operating margin ≥8% on quarterly print.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.93%

Status

scored

Maintain UPS at current weight, collecting the 6.84% dividend yield while monitoring Q3 2026 earnings as the decisive catalyst. The setup at $95.82 buys ahead of technical confirmation (requires close ≥$98.50 on above-average volume with RSI bullish divergence) in a name with Q2 2026 falsifying the margin thesis (-49% YoY operating income, 480bps gross margin compression) and no confirmed bottom; the hard trailing stop at $94.23 protects against the dominant left-tail risk of a drawdown to $82.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.05%

Status

scored

Trim UPS through a two-tranche phased approach targeting 40-45% residual benchmark weight, executing ~25% at current $95.50 levels and ~20% on any relief bounce into the $99-102 zone, with a hard stop at $91.50 on all residual positions. The thesis rests on structural margin destruction (Q2 operating income down 49% on 7.6% revenue growth), deteriorating FCF coverage (1.03x), and real-time estimate cuts, while maintaining a reduced residual due to the 6.9% yield carry and institutional conviction providing an interim floor.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.18%

Status

scored

Trim 45-50% of UPS long exposure in tranches (~25% at current $94.75 zone into confirmed breakdown, ~20-25% into any relief bounce into $99-102 zone), maintain smaller residual position under Underweight rating, and consider a small defined-risk tactical short (1-2% portfolio risk via puts or reduced-equity short) at $94.75 with stop at $99.63 — avoiding the trader's full 5% equity short due to squeeze risk at 31.37 RSI near a 52-week low with gap-prone stop exposure.

Outcome

✓

Return

-4.35%

Status

scored

Trim UPS long exposure by 30-35% using a two-tranche approach (~15% at current $98-100 levels, ~15% on rallies to $101-103) with a hard stop at $104.00, maintaining a smaller residual position to capture yield carry while avoiding the execution defects of both aggressive and conservative alternatives. Full reassessment is pre-committed to late-October Q3 2026 earnings, with exit triggers on dividend cut/freeze or operating margin below 5.0%.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.11%

Status

scored

Underweight UPS with a 40% benchmark residual position executed in three tranches ($100 entry, $102-103 scale-in, $105 final trim), hard stop at $95, and full exit pre-committed for Q3 2026 earnings (late October) on dividend cut/freeze or operating margin below 5.0% with gross margin deterioration. The 0.12x Q2 FCF coverage ratio and 450bps operating margin compression support bear thesis, but the 9/16 reflection lesson and plausible relief bounce to the 50 SMA justify measured rather than full liquidation.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.42%

Status

scored

Execute a 40-50% trim via phased selling over 3-5 trading sessions into the $98-99 zone, with hard stop at $97.50 and full exit on close below $95.27 on volume >4M. The bear case wins on hard data including operating margin collapse to 4.1%, FCF coverage of only 12% of dividend obligation, and 200 SMA breakdown with 4.94M shares of institutional distribution volume. Rotate 60% of proceeds to cash/short-duration credit until freight cycle shows credible bottom.

Outcome

✓

Return

-3.50%

Status

scored

Trim 40-50% of UPS exposure in the $102-103 zone while retaining 50-60% residual capped at 60-65% benchmark weight, as the stock sits squarely within its $97-$105 fair-value range with the 200 SMA at $102.27 having defended across six consecutive decisions. Maintain the 6.4% dividend yield carry while setting a hard stop at $98.50 and pre-committing to full exit on Q3 2026 earnings if dividend is cut/frozen or operating margin falls below 5.0%.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.11%

Status

scored

The Investment Committee recommends trimming 25-30% of UPS via phased execution on rallies into the $105-106 resistance zone (where every bounce since July has failed), rejecting the trader's $99.50 limit sell as structurally defective given the stock's $102.46 price sitting on the 200 SMA support. The Underweight rating reflects a 49% operating income collapse, 96% FCF payout ratio, suspended buybacks, and expanding net debt ($18.02B to $19.83B), though revenue growth and the 6.54% yield justify retaining 70-75% rather than a full exit. Re-engagement triggers require sustained close above $106.40 with MACD cross up AND Q3 margin stabilization, with stop widened to $98.40 (2x ATR) and reassessment at late October Q3 2026 earnings.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.17%

Status

scored

Bear case consensus with Q2'26 net income down 53% YoY despite revenue +7.6% and operating margin at 9.05% below the historical 10-11% norm warrants meaningful de-risking. Trim 25-30% at current $99-103 levels via phased TWAP over 5-7 trading days, retaining 70-75% residual; this is the lower half of the 25-40% range calibrated down per recent binding reflections that reject over-trimming of range-bound names within fair value. Conditional escalation to 40-45% total trim applies if $99 closes below with volume >4M and RSI<35.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.31%

Status

scored

Reduce UPS exposure by 45-50% via phased TWAP over 5-7 trading days, retaining a 50-55% reduced income-only core with a covered-call overlay at 110-112 strikes to harvest elevated IV. Reject fresh entry at $99.97 given breakdown below all three SMAs with expanding negative MACD-histogram; set hard stop at $96.50 with scale-in trim trigger at $99.34 (lower Bollinger Band). Multi-gate re-entry requires 200 SMA reclaim held 5 sessions, RSI>50 held 5 sessions, AND Q3 earnings confirmation of margin stabilization. Q3 2026 earnings (late October) is the binary catalyst—pre-commit to full Sell on any dividend trim/cut language, Hold on in-line print with dividend reaffirmation.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.76%

Status

scored

Reduce UPS exposure by 50% through phased execution over two to three trading sessions without initiating new positions near $99–100. Cap any residual income-oriented position at 2–3% of portfolio with a covered-call or collar overlay, treating a break below $97.50 as the level to distribute remaining exposure. Reconsider only after UPS reclaims $106.26 on strong volume with a bullish MACD cross and Q3 2026 evidence of sequential OCF and EPS stabilization.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.25%

Status

scored

Trim 40% of UPS exposure via phased TWAP over 5-7 trading days into the $102.94-$103.20 bounce zone (10 EMA/Bollinger midline), rejecting the trader's $103.30 stop as structurally broken (only 17% of ATR). Hedge the residual 60% with a defined-risk 100/90 January 2027 put spread; move hard stop to $99.99 (below 200 SMA and Bollinger lower band). Pre-commit to full exit on Q3 dividend cut/margin miss or upgrade to Hold on confirmed dividend reaffirmation plus FCF greater than $1B.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.77%

Status

scored

Trim 25% of UPS via phased TWAP over 5-7 trading days into the $103-106 zone, retaining 25-40% residual with a hard stop at the 200 SMA ($101.78) confirmed over 2-3 sessions; no position adds before FOMC September 16. The underweight rating is driven by six consecutive sub-1% alpha prints (five of six), confirmed Q2 structural deterioration (4.07% operating margin, 12% FCF dividend coverage, 630bps cost-revenue negative spread), and the risk that uncertainty resolves asymmetrically downward in a validated bear regime. Full capitulation to sell is rejected given the $2.72B defense contract through 2030, 6.34% dividend yield, and five historically defended 200 SMA tests.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.17%

Status

scored

Maintain the 40-50% residual position at current weights; do not add at $103-105 or trim further. Capture the September 3 dividend ($1.64) on the residual, and pre-commit to a 25% size-down trigger at the catalyst window midpoint (~October 5) if the 50 SMA has not reclaimed and alpha remains near-zero. Upgrade to measured overweight (2-3% portfolio weight) only on confirmed daily close above $106.65 with volume >10M shares and positive MACD cross.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.48%

Status

scored

The three-analyst consensus validates HOLD as the correct verdict: structural deterioration data (630bps cost-revenue spread, 2.6% FCF dividend coverage) prevents conviction for overweight, while five documented 200 SMA defenses overrule further trim. The position earns 6.4% yield to wait for Q3 2026 earnings (late October) as the binary catalyst that resolves the setup — upgrade to measured overweight triggers on confirmed daily close above $107-108 on volume >6M shares with positive MACD cross, while a confirmed breakdown below $101.71 on volume >10M shares held for 2-3 sessions triggers full exit.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.34%

Status

scored

Trim 40-50% of UPS via phased execution: 20-25% via TWAP over 5-7 trading days into the $103-106 zone plus a contingent 20-25% tranche at $106.50-107.00 on volume >6M shares with a two-day failure-to-close filter, while retaining 50-60% residual with a hard stop at $99.50 and capturing the September 3 dividend ($1.64) on the residual position.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.51%

Status

scored

Underweight rating maintained with a 40-50% trim executed in two tranches: 20-25% immediately via TWAP over 5-7 trading days into the $103-106 zone, plus a contingent 20-25% tranche at $106.50-107.00 if volume exceeds 6M shares with a two-day failure-to-close filter. The 50-60% residual position is hard-stopped at $99.50 (~$1.80 below the 200 SMA at $101.57, ~0.75 ATR buffer), with the September 3 dividend ($1.64) captured on the residual. Reassessment is pre-committed for Q3 2026 earnings mid-October against three binary tests: FCF >$1.0B, dividend reaffirmed without freeze language, and Q4 volume guide intact.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.04%

Status

scored

Maintain the existing 40-50% residual position in UPS given the binding constraints from four prior reflections (8/24–8/27), which consistently validated that defended-support setups produce minimal alpha and that pre-emptive additions destroy carry—particularly when the aggressive analyst's 3:1 upside math requires a clean breakout that hasn't occurred. The 200-day SMA at $101.58 remains the structural stop level, with upgrade conditional on a confirmed close above $106.71 on >5M shares alongside Q3 margin recovery >6%, and downgrade triggers including Q3 EPS below $0.85, margin staying below 5%, or any dividend review commentary.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.33%

Status

scored

Maintain Underweight rating on UPS with a calibrated 40-50% position retention, executing a 50-60% trim via TWAP into the $103-106 zone over 5-7 trading days; the residual position carries a hard stop at $99.50 ($1.80 below the 200 SMA at ~$101.30). The September 3 dividend of $1.64 should be captured on the residual before reassessing at Q3 2026 earnings, with re-engagement requiring operating margin recovery to >6.5%, FCF covering the quarterly dividend run-rate, and a dividend announcement free of freeze language.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.03%

Status

scored

Underweight rating on UPS with a 50-55% trim over 5-7 trading days via TWAP into the $103-106 zone, retaining 45-50% as a residual position. Hard stop the residual at $99.50 (approximately 0.75 ATR below the 200 SMA at $101.30) on a daily close with volume >10M shares, while capturing the September 3 dividend ($1.64) on the residual before reassessing. The decision rejects a full-Sell escalation based on forward P/E cushion and TTM FCF coverage ($5.56B vs ~$5.4B annualized dividend), while rejecting a smaller 30-50% trim based on structural deterioration evidence including Q2 cost-of-revenue up 13.8% on 7.6% revenue growth and debt/equity at 190%.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.49%

Status

scored

Underweight rating with a 30-40% trim at ~$105, capping residual at 60% of benchmark weight; hard stop the residual at $99.50 ($1.80 below the 200 SMA at $101.32) on a daily close with volume >10M shares. The decision rejects a full-Sell given the defended 200 SMA holding across four consecutive sessions and the binary dividend catalyst expected Q3 2026, while rejecting a shallower trim given structural 630bps cost/revenue gap deterioration and debt-funded dividend concerns.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.36%

Status

scored

Trim ~50% of UPS immediately at $102-103, with GTC limit orders at $106.78 for another 10-15% trim on relief bounce; retain 35-40% residual through the September 3 dividend with a hard stop at $99.50. Re-engagement requires close above $106.78 on volume with positive MACD and at least one quarter of margin stabilization. Underweight because the 200 SMA at $101.23 has defended repeatedly, the 6.43% yield provides sticky income bid, and calibrated partial trims have outperformed binary full-Sell calls in five prior reflections.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.70%

Status

scored

Reduce UPS to 0.6-0.7x benchmark weight via staggered execution: take 20% off at market within 5-7 trading days, hold 10-20% in reserve for either a confirmed close below the 200 SMA at $101.16 on volume >10M shares or a failed bounce. Set residual hard stop at $108.50 and monitor the September dividend declaration as an explicit trigger—flat $1.65 with no coverage commentary is constructive; any cut or freeze is a full-exit signal. Reassess at Q3 2026 earnings against three tests: sequential EPS improvement, FCF recovery above $1.0B, and gross margin stabilization vs Q2's ~13%.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.56%

Status

scored

Trim 50-65% of UPS over 5-7 trading days via TWAP targeting the $103-106 zone to capture the 10 EMA/50 SMA resistance confluence, while retaining 35-50% to capture the September 3 dividend ($1.64); hard stop the residual below $99.50 on a daily close below the $101.09 200 SMA with volume >10M shares, given Q2's 4.1% operating margin collapse, FCF that covers only 12% of the quarterly dividend, and 189.9% Debt/Equity indicating structural deterioration rather than temporary weakness.

Outcome

✗

Return

-0.27%

Status

scored

Trim 65-75% of UPS exposure into the $103.50-$105.00 resistance zone via TWAP over 5-7 trading days, retaining 25-35% for yield capture through the September 3 dividend ($.01) with hard stop at $99.50 below the 200 SMA at $100.96. This calibrated Underweight reflects unanimous structural deterioration conviction while acknowledging forward P/E cushion at 12.7x, the $3B cost-savings program, and reaffirmed dividend as reasons against full liquidation—but the Q2 FCF of $166M versus $1.36B dividends and clustered near-term catalysts (Q3 earnings late October, oil at $92+, 200 SMA test within 90 days) require meaningful de-risking now.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.91%

Status

scored

The analyst recommends trimming 40-50% of UPS exposure to Underweight via three tranches at $104-106, $101-103, and holding the remainder with stops, rejecting a full Sell due to the 12.6x forward P/E, $3B cost-savings program, and $5.9B cash position providing valuation cushion. Key risks driving the Underweight call include Q1-to-Q2 structural margin compression (5.98% to 4.07%), FCF coverage at 0.88x, and -4.0% four-year revenue CAGR, with hard invalidation if the stock closes above $107.50 on volume and full exit on a close below $100.96 (200 SMA) with volume exceeding 10M shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.09%

Status

scored

Trim UPS 40-50% via TWAP at market near $102 over 5-7 days, with a secondary limit order at $104.87 (10 EMA) for additional 10% trim if a relief bounce occurs; cap residual at 50% of benchmark weight. Hard stop at $96.50 (2x ATR), escalating to full exit on close below $98.26 on volume >10M shares. Re-entry requires close above $108.76 (50 SMA) with volume confirmation and stabilizing MACD. Rating remains Underweight (not Sell) given 12.6x forward P/E, $3B cost-savings program, $5.9B cash, and dividend coverage, but reflects bearish directional conviction and the Q1/Q2 EPS deterioration (-51% and -53% YoY respectively).

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.37%

Status

scored

Maintain UPS at 3% of portfolio with a Hold rating, as neither the bearish trigger (200 SMA breakdown at $102.30 with expanding MACD) nor the bullish negation ($109.30 reclaim with MACD crossover) has fired. Two-stage trim discipline trims 30-50% on first close below $102.30 with volume >10M shares, and the remaining 50% on a second close below $100, while a lower add trigger at $105.75 targets the $108.93 supply level—not entry. Re-evaluate at Q3 2026 earnings in late October for FCF inflection, dividend coverage, and gross margin trajectory.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.99%

Status

scored

Maintaining an Underweight rating on UPS with a directive to trim to 20-25% of current allocation via TWAP over 5-7 trading days, with a hard stop at the 200 SMA ($102.36) on daily close. The trim is more aggressive than prior Underweight calls (which delivered zero alpha) to actually monetize the bearish directional view given deteriorating fundamentals: Q1 -51% and Q2 -53% YoY EPS declines, 1.03x TTM FCF dividend coverage, and 21% gross profit compression on 7.6% revenue growth.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.57%

Status

scored

Trim UPS to 60-70% of benchmark weighting given negative asymmetry (upside 5-15% vs. downside 10-30%), a trailing P/E of 12.86 contingent on a 50% earnings rebound, and chart damage including lower highs and MACD negative divergence. The 200-SMA breakdown is not yet confirmed, which keeps the rating at Underweight rather than Sell. A stop loss at $99.50-$100 protects the retained position while allowing buffer above the 200-SMA; the $93 entry target is rejected as speculative forecast rather than price-action discipline.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.50%

Status

scored

Trim 30-35% of the UPS position at $104 with a hard stop at $101.00, while pairing the residual with Oct/Jan $100 puts (5-7% of post-trim notional) for hedge against CPI, oil, and Q3 earnings catalysts. Re-enter on confirmed close above $107.50 with 10 EMA reclaiming 20 SMA on above-average volume, with full reassessment at Q3 2026 earnings in late October.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.28%

Status

scored

With GAAP operating income down 49% YoY and 480 bps gross margin compression, UPS presents negative risk/reward asymmetry warranting a trim of 25-40% of overweight exposure at $104, with a hard stop at $101.50; the Underweight rating avoids full liquidation because the 200 SMA at $102.04 still holds and the 6.28% dividend remains reaffirmed, making Q3 2026 earnings the critical reassessment catalyst.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.21%

Status

scored

Maintain UPS at Hold with $104.50 spot and 200 SMA support at $101.93 representing a binary test imminent within ~2.5% and one ATR ($3.19). The 6.36% dividend yield and reaffirmed $1.64 quarterly payout provide income cushion, but 40% OCF decline from 2022, bearish momentum, and 53% Q2 YoY EPS collapse make incremental positioning imprudent. Hold is the highest expected-value posture pending either confirmed 200 SMA defense triggering Overweight or a daily close below $101.93 on elevated volume triggering Underweight with $95-97 downside target.