Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
Researches and sells medicines for cancer, cardiovascular disease and immune or neurological conditions.
BMY receives an UNDERWEIGHT rating with a directive to trim 25% of the position (retaining 75% core) given broken momentum, a 22-25% revenue hole opening in 2026-27, and only $1.31 of cushion against $1.40 ATR. A hard stop at $57.50 (74¢ below the 200 SMA at $58.24) is mandated, with auto-reversion to SELL on any close below $58.24 with volume exceeding 15M. Re-entry requires confirmed technical repair—specifically a 10 EMA reclaim with positive MACD and RSI above 50—rather than aspirational price targets. The 4.22% covered yield and 2.5x FCF coverage support retaining a core position rather than full capitulation.
26 wins · 16 losses · 2 pushes in 44 scored verdicts How this is scored
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last 30 of 49 reports26 wins · 16 losses · 2 pushes in 44 scored verdicts-0.20% avg move
$10,000 → $10,088
-6.8%
$10,000 → $9,323
too few trades to judge — 1 round trip, 1 profitablein the market 6 of 18 sessionsmax drawdown -2.5%simulated 16 Sept – 9 Oct 20265 newer calls are locked
Simulated with a notional $10,000, fills at the next session's open, no commissions or slippage, split- and dividend-adjusted prices. Not a return forecast. How this is simulated
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BMY receives an UNDERWEIGHT rating with a directive to trim 25% of the position (retaining 75% core) given broken momentum, a 22-25% revenue hole opening in 2026-27, and only $1.31 of cushion against $1.40 ATR. A hard stop at $57.50 (74¢ below the 200 SMA at $58.24) is mandated, with auto-reversion to SELL on any close below $58.24 with volume exceeding 15M. Re-entry requires confirmed technical repair—specifically a 10 EMA reclaim with positive MACD and RSI above 50—rather than aspirational price targets. The 4.22% covered yield and 2.5x FCF coverage support retaining a core position rather than full capitulation.
Trim 30–35% of BMY holdings ahead of Q3 earnings to reduce binary event risk while retaining 65–70% core for the 4.23% covered dividend carry and re-engagement optionality; execute trim zone at $60.50–61.00 or at market, with hard stop at $57.50 and re-entry capped at 50% normal sizing pending 10 EMA reclaim with MACD positive and RSI >50.
Maintain BMY at 2% portfolio weight (lower end of 2-3% band) with hard stop at $57.75 and price target of $68.00; do not add at the rising 200 SMA ($58.19) unless three-condition confirmation fires (close >10 EMA at $60.97 on above-average volume, MACD histogram stopping new lows, RSI >50). The 4.29% covered dividend (2.5x FCF coverage) provides carry justifying patience through Q3 earnings in late October—the binary catalyst for Cobenfy trajectory and Eliquis erosion slope.
Trim 30-35% of BMY into rallies at $61-62 (10 EMA), retaining 65-70% core for the 4.1% covered dividend and intact 200 SMA floor, with hard stop at $57.50. The Underweight rating reflects materially worsened technicals since the 10/2 Hold (-4.5% alpha) — price below lower Bollinger Band, MACD histogram doubled negative to -0.27, RSI at 32.6, and 19.2M distribution volume — while the 9/17 floor consensus (11% FCF yield, 1.6x dividend coverage, $5.9B deleveraging, 200 SMA holding by 66 cents) prevents a full SELL rating. Reassess at Q3'26 earnings late October or upon 200 SMA break on elevated volume.
Maintain HOLD on BMY with residual exposure following the 9/29 trim; do not initiate new longs at $61.46 given momentum configuration functionally identical to the prohibited 9/28 setup. Hard stop at $58.00; reload triggers at 200 SMA retest ($58.67) or post-Q3'26 earnings beat with raised guidance — each adding 25% position. Target $64.50 first leg, $68.00 second leg; collect 4.1% covered dividend while awaiting the primary binary catalyst at Q3'26 earnings (late October/early November).
BMY warrants a calibrated Underweight rating with a 35-40% trim of the position into rallies at $63.80–$64.50, retaining a 60-65% core position to capture the covered 4% dividend while the structural deterioration (technical breakdown, hostile macro environment, and imminent Eliquis patent expiration) resolves. The $57.50 stop loss protects against a 200 SMA breach, and trim proceeds should be redeployed into defensive sectors without LOE overhang rather than cash or short-duration instruments, with re-evaluation triggered by Q3 2026 earnings or major technical repair above the 50 SMA.
Hold BMY at neutral weight after the 9/29 trim, collecting the 4% covered dividend while awaiting key catalysts. Hard stop set at $58.55 (200 SMA); do not add at $62.86 as this violates the dispositive 9/28 binding reflection on broken momentum. Commit to a directional view (Overweight or Underweight) only after management's Eliquis erosion disclosure at Q3 2026 earnings in late October/early November.
BMY earns an UNDERWEIGHT rating with a trim of 25-35% of existing exposure into the $63.50-$64.00 resistance zone on confirmed technical failure (failed 50 SMA test or close >$64 with negative MACD histogram). The 9/28 binding reflection is dispositive: a full HOLD on broken momentum compounds alpha leakage faster than the 3.94% dividend carry recoups it. Protective stop on the retained 65-75% position at $57.50 (just below 200 SMA), with a 1-2% notional 30-day put hedge recommended ahead of the binary Q3 print.
Maintain HOLD on BMY as the 4% covered dividend carry (1.6x FCF coverage) and 0.23-beta structural floor support a neutral stance, but binding reflection architecture from 9/21 (-0.6% alpha into broken momentum) prohibits adding at current price $63.88 with price below 50 SMA at $64.42 and bearish MACD. Hard stop at $55; re-engage on confirmed 50 SMA reclaim at $64.42 with volume >15M and MACD bullish cross, or pullback to $58-60 near 200 SMA. Full reassessment after Q3 2026 earnings and CYTK ruling.
Maintain HOLD rating on BMY as the 9/21 and 9/17 binding reflections are dispositive against both Buy/Overweight (broken momentum configuration) and Underweight/Sell (intact floor integrity). Retain residual exposure to collect the 4% dividend carry (1.6x FCF coverage) while awaiting either a confirmed 50 SMA reclaim at $64.35 with volume >15M and RSI >50, or a pullback to $60-61 with RSI >35 and MACD histogram stabilization. Hard stop at $58.41 (200 SMA) on closing basis; full re-evaluation tied to Q3 2026 earnings and CYTK ruling.
Maintain residual BMY exposure for the 4% covered dividend yield and 0.23-beta defensive floor, but do not add new capital at current levels given the broken-momentum setup (Close < 10 EMA < 50 SMA, MACD histogram at -0.55, RSI 35) which violates the 9/3 and 9/21 binding reflections. Hard stop at $58.00 (200 SMA); tiered add triggers require either price closing above $63 with contracting MACD histogram, or flush to $58-58.50 with RSI below 30 and capitulation volume. 90-day mandatory reassessment; full re-evaluation after Q3 2026 earnings and CYTK ruling.
BMY maintains HOLD at current residual exposure to capture the 4% covered dividend carry while awaiting technical repair. The current setup—price below 10 EMA/50 SMA/VWAP/middle BB with MACD expanding negative at -0.64 and 14 consecutive down sessions—precisely matches prior binding lessons that produced -1.5% to -2.2% alpha leakage, prohibiting new long exposure. Hard stop at $58.23 (200 SMA) defines risk; add triggers await confirmed 50 SMA reclaim at $64.14 with volume and MACD contraction; 90-day mandatory reassessment regardless of price action.
Maintain residual BMY exposure post the 9/17 trim given the 9/21 binding reflection explicitly prohibiting any phased Overweight into the current broken momentum setup (RSI 37, MACD -0.56, price below 10 EMA/50 SMA/VWAP) — the same configuration that produced -0.6% alpha 24 hours ago. The floor thesis remains intact (0.227 beta, 1.57x FCF dividend coverage, $6B debt paydown, 200 SMA at $58.24) so no further trim is warranted per the 9/17 reflection, but entry timing is wrong per the 9/21 lesson. Collect the 4% covered dividend while waiting for Q3 2026 earnings and CYTK ruling as binary catalysts for re-evaluation.
BMY earns an Overweight rating based on compelling asymmetric long-term value (9.5x forward P/E, 4% covered dividend yield, 0.23 beta structural floor) but tempered by confirmed short-term technical deterioration (MACD bearish cross 9/15, RSI 38.77, price below 50 SMA). The rating translates into phased execution: initiate first tranche at $61.50-62.50 (0.6-0.75% portfolio), add second tranche on $64.50 breakout with volume or $58-60 pullback to 200 SMA, with hard stop at $58.00 and full build target of 1.5-2.0% portfolio weight.
Maintain BMY at residual position weight for the 3.95% dividend carry and 0.227-beta structural floor; the 9/17 trim already implemented the appropriate partial adjustment and further trimming would forfeit floor carry, while the 9/3 lesson blocks adding at $63.06 given confirmed 50 SMA breakdown with expanding negative MACD. Hard stop at $58.09 (200 SMA), with three defined re-entry triggers: panic exhaustion below $61.97 with RSI <30, trend re-entry above $64.01 with MACD inflection, or sideways consolidation for 8-10 sessions in the $62.50-$64.00 range.
BMY is rated Underweight with a directive to trim 25-50% of existing exposure on relief bounces toward the $64-65 zone, while maintaining a residual 1.0-1.5% position for dividend carry and beta floor. A hard stop is set at $58.02 (200 SMA), with future re-entry capped at 2% portfolio weight and a 90-day mandatory reassessment regardless of price action.
BMY receives a HOLD rating at residual position weight (1.0-1.5% portfolio) for the 3.95% dividend carry and 0.227-beta structural floor, with all three analysts converging on this decision. A $62.50 hard stop is enforced on daily close below expanding volume; preferred add zones are $60.50-61.00 on confirmed hold with MACD/RSI inflection or $63.80 on successful 50 SMA retest from above with rising volume, with trimming recommended at $65-66 relief rallies.
BMY maintains HOLD rating as residual position (1.0-1.5% portfolio weight) for dividend carry and structural floor support. The bear case wins 4 of 6 dimensions (patent cliff, valuation, technical setup, balance sheet), but unanimous floor indicators per the 9/10 binding reflection prevent further trimming while the 9/3 lesson blocks adding into broken momentum. Hard stop triggered on daily close below $63.69 (50 SMA); bearish re-entry targeted at $57.86-$60.00 via tiered execution. Mandatory 90-day time-based reassessment with full evaluation after Q3 2026 earnings and CYTK ruling.
Maintain BMY at 1.0-1.5% portfolio weight for the 3.96% dividend carry and 0.227-beta structural floor, as the 9/10/9/11 BMY reflections bind against further trim. The aggressive trader's Sell/30-40% trim and Research Manager's Underweight conflict with the intact floor thesis supported by all three analysts (2.5x FCF coverage, $6.1B debt reduction, 200 SMA at $57.78 intact, 71.6% gross margin). No PFE rotation as all three analysts identify it as a lateral LOE-exposed swap; defined execution bands (stop at $61.50, trim trigger at 50 SMA $63.55, add triggers at $66.20 and $57.78) convert the neutral Hold into measurable alpha pending Q3 2026 earnings and CYTK ruling.
BMY is maintained at a residual 1.0-1.5% portfolio weight for the 3.95% dividend yield and 0.227-beta structural floor, with the 9/8 Underweight trim already implemented and no further trimming warranted per the 9/10 reflection binding constraint. Entry triggers require technical repair (MACD histogram positive, RSI >50, price reclaim 10 EMA) AND catalyst clarity (arlo-cel Phase 3, CYTK ruling, Q3 2026 earnings) before adding above $66.20.
Trim BMY by 40-45% via two tranches: first half at market (~$63.75) to lock in YTD gains and remove immediate downside exposure, second half as sell-stop or limit order at $65-66 to capture any mean-reversion bounce; hard stop on residual at $61 (one ATR below 50 SMA), with $57.60 (200 SMA) retained as structural floor reference. Freed capital should be held in cash or short-duration Treasuries; reject PFE rotation as it merely re-leverages sector exposure with cosmetic yield enhancement. Consider protective puts through the catalyst cluster. Full re-evaluation after Q3 2026 earnings in late October.
Maintain BMY at 1.0-1.5% portfolio weight (post-9/8 trim residual) for the 3.9% dividend carry and 0.227-beta defensive floor, with hard stop at $62.75 and asymmetric trim trigger on confirmed 50 SMA break at $63.13. No additions below $66.20 given broken momentum and MACD bearish cross, but avoid pre-emptive further trimming given prior 9/8 trim already addressed invalidation signals and produced +0.0% alpha; full re-evaluation scheduled after Q3 2026 earnings in late October with CAR-T overhang resolution as primary directional catalyst.
BMY downgraded to Underweight with a 40-50% trim recommendation executed via TWAP at current levels ($64.50-65.00), retaining a residual 1.0-1.5% portfolio weight for the 3.77% dividend carry given the 0.225-beta defensive floor. The downgrade is driven by repeated technical breakdowns (MACD bearish cross, RSI at 46.66, price below 10-EMA at $66.59, Bollinger middle band, and VWAP) that mirror failed prior Hold/Overweight calls, compounded by escalating zola-cel trial pause overhang now framed at class-level in WSJ coverage. No new entries; re-engagement requires concurrent technical repair, structural 200-day MA confirmation, and zola-cel resolution, with hard exit triggered on weekly close below $57.40.
BMY is maintained at Hold with 1-2% position weight for the 3.7% dividend carry and 0.225-beta structural floor, with explicit asymmetric trim triggers (close below 10 EMA on any volume = trim 15-20%) that have historically converted alpha-leak Holds into captured alpha; no adds above $65 due to technical overextension and unresolved Eliquis overhang, with hard exit at close below 50 SMA ($62.85) on above-average volume and full re-evaluation after Q3 2026 earnings in late October.
BMY is upgraded from Hold to Overweight with a three-stage pyramid entry strategy targeting $66.00–$66.50 (first tranche ~1.0%), $62.50–$63.50 (second tranche 1.0%), and a third tranche (0.5–1.0%) gated on zola-cel safety update or Q3 2026 earnings; total exposure capped at 2.5–3.0% until Eliquis erosion slope and new drug trajectories clarify. Hard stop set at $62.61 (50 SMA close on volume) with asymmetric trim trigger below 10 EMA; base target $78–$80 (12–13x forward P/E on $6.56 EPS) with $85 requiring durable earnings delivery.
Maintain BMY at equal weight (1-2% portfolio) for the 3.77% dividend carry and 0.225-beta structural floor, with no adds above $65 due to technical overextension and unresolved Eliquis cliff. The asymmetric trim trigger (close below 10 EMA on any volume = trim 15-20%) converts passive Hold maintenance into active risk management, with re-engagement triggers at confirmed breakout above $68.64 on >13M shares or pullback to $62-64 with positive MACD histogram.
Maintain BMY at equal weight (1-2%) for the 3.77% dividend carry and 0.225-beta defensive floor, as price at $66.92 sits between two unresolved signals—neither the breakout above $68.64 with MACD strength nor the pullback to $62-64 with reset MACD has occurred. The asymmetric 10 EMA trim trigger ($66.64) converts a passive Hold into active risk management, with full re-evaluation scheduled after Q3 2026 earnings in late October.
Maintain BMY at current position weight (2-4% portfolio) for the 3.78% dividend yield and 0.225-beta defensive characteristics. Three-analyst consensus holds amid patent cliff concerns (Eliquis LOE), negative tangible book ($39.4B goodwill impairment risk), and unproven ZENBEXUS commercial uptake—but structural floor (2.54x FCF dividend coverage, intact 50/200 SMA at $61.56/$56.78) prevents drawdown justification for Underweight. Asymmetric trim trigger (15-20% trim on close below 10 EMA for two consecutive sessions) addresses prior framework leakage of -0.3% to -1.6% alpha versus SPY. Re-engage on pullback to $61-64 with positive MACD histogram or breakout above $68.64 on >13M shares; hard exit below 50 SMA ($61.56).
Maintain BMY at 1-2% position weight for the 3.76% dividend carry and structural floor, while adding an asymmetric trim trigger (close below 10 EMA on any volume = trim 25%) to address the three-call alpha-leak pattern observed on 8/25, 8/26, and 8/27. Hard exit remains at close below the 50 SMA ($61.55), with re-engagement triggers at $63.00-$63.50 pullback or $68.52 confirmed breakout on >20M shares with MACD re-acceleration. Full re-evaluation scheduled for Q3 2026 earnings (late October) to assess ZENBEXUS commercial trajectory, Cobenfy ramp, and Eliquis erosion slope against the $6.56 forward EPS consensus.
Maintain BMY at current weight for the 3.73% dividend carry (2.5x FCF coverage) and 0.225 beta defensive profile, but do not add above $65. The prior Underweight calls produced inconsistent alpha (-2.3%, +1.9%, +0.6%) confirming Hold as the only high-conviction position, while the aggressive analyst's Buy recommendation ignores the Eliquis cliff (~$13B annual franchise facing 2026-2027 generic erosion) and technical overextension (10.9% above 50 SMA with momentum rolling over).
Maintain BMY at current position weight for the 3.71% dividend carry and 0.225 defensive beta profile. Do NOT add at current levels (11.6%+ extension above 50 SMA), do NOT execute the 20-25% trim or 30-40% trim. Anchor first warning at close below 10 EMA ($66.19) and hard exit at close below 50 SMA ($61.08). Re-engage on pullback to $60-62 zone with momentum reset or after Q3 2026 earnings late October for Cobenfy/Zenbexus commercial trajectory and Eliquis erosion slope assessment.
Maintain BMY at current position weight for the 3.75% dividend carry and 0.225 beta defensive profile, resisting both aggressive 25-40% trim and underweight calls—the prior decision pattern across five consecutive BMY calls shows Hold consistently outperforms Underweight for this thick-floor income name. Set first warning at 10 EMA close below $66.19 and hard exit at 50 SMA close below $60.84; re-engage on pullback to $60-62 zone or breakout above $68.10 with momentum confirmation. Full re-evaluation after Q3 2026 earnings (late October) for Cobenfy commercial trajectory, Eliquis erosion slope, and forward EPS revisions.
Trim 33% of BMY at $67.50 to lock in gains from the 18% rally ahead of the imminent Eliquis LOE (late 2026), while maintaining 67% core position for the 3.76% dividend carry with 2.54x FCF coverage. Set hard stop at close below 10 EMA ($65.80) and re-entry zone at $60.61-$62.50 with tranche scaling.
Maintain BMY at current weight for the 3.85% dividend carry and defensive beta (0.225) while avoiding additions at $67 after the +19.2% extension above the 200 SMA on weak momentum (MACD +0.005) and sub-average volume (6.83M vs 33M peak); define a buy zone at $60-62 near the 50 SMA where risk/reward improves, with a hard stop below $58 to protect against thesis breach.
BMY gets a decisive Underweight with a 50% trim across a $64-67 execution band over 5-10 days, retaining the other 50% as a dividend-anchored hedge. Two hard exit triggers protect the retained position: a close below the 50 SMA at $60.15 on above-average volume, or material adverse Celgene CVR lawsuit developments. Re-entry requires either a confirmed close above $68.50 on >13M volume or a recovery above the 50 SMA after a flush, targeting $67.50 over 3-6 months.
Underweight BMY with a measured 20-25% trim at $66, reducing exposure to CVR/LOE overhang while preserving 75-80% of the position to retain the 3.82% dividend and Zenbexus upside optionality. The trade uses a close-based trailing stop at the 10 EMA ($64.50) and three explicit re-entry tranches at $63.90/$61.50/$59.71, with an override policy if BMY breaks above $68.10 on elevated volume with MACD bullish re-cross. Full re-evaluation is scheduled after Q3 2026 earnings in late October for Cobenfy/Zenbexus commercial metrics and Eliquis erosion slope.
BMY remains a Hold as the fundamental value case (14.5x trailing P/E, 10.1x forward P/E, 9.5% FCF yield, 3.9% dividend) supports continued ownership, but the current setup near $66.05 lacks sufficient risk/reward with roughly $10.16 downside to the $55.89 structural stop versus only $9-$14 upside to the $75-$80 target. Entry is warranted only on a pullback to $61-$63 (alert zone $59.71-$63.95) with technical washout, or after a sustained close above $68.10 on 12-15M+ shares with RSI momentum confirmation.
Analyst recommends trimming 25-30% of BMY at $64-65 to lock in the 13.5% 30-day rally, while retaining 50-60% core position for the 3.95% dividend yield (1.57x FCF coverage) and long-term Cobenfy/Zenbexus optionality. Key risks cited include a reinstated $6.7B Celgene CVR lawsuit (binary catalyst with 3-6 month procedural timeline), technical distribution at $68.10 (MACD bearish cross, RSI rollover), and patent cliff arithmetic ($20-25B legacy erosion vs $10-15B growth portfolio peak).
Hold BMY at 75% of benchmark weight with a $67.50 price target and 3-6 month horizon. The structural case (9.74x forward P/E, 56% growth portfolio, 3.9% dividend, 0.225 beta) is compelling but current technicals (77% volume collapse, MACD bearish cross, failed $66.78 breakout) warrant defensive discipline. Wait for either a pullback to $59-60 with RSI reset toward 40 or a breakout above $65.89 on >10M volume with bullish MACD re-cross before adding.
Maintain BMY at 75% of target weight with position in profit (+9.3% from $59.15 entry) and intact structural uptrend; do not add at current $64.65 due to unfavorable near-term risk-reward from bearish MACD cross (1.53 vs signal 1.73), RSI rollover (73→61), and freshly reactivated $6.7B lawsuit overhang. Close-based stop at $63.30; add triggers at $59-60 pullback with MACD stabilization or breakout above $65.89 on volume >20M with bullish MACD re-cross; primary re-evaluation at Q3 2026 earnings (October).
Initiate Overweight in BMY based on asymmetric valuation (9.72x forward P/E, 157% FCF coverage of dividend, 34.4% operating margins) with a starter-then-add framework: 0.75% initial entry in the $62.20-$63.70 zone, with a potential 0.50-0.75% add above $64.00 on volume confirmation, while setting a hard stop at $59.80 (1.6x ATR) and a mental re-evaluation trigger if 2027 consensus EPS drops below $6.00; full thesis validation expected at Q3 2026 earnings in late October.
Hold BMY at current 1-3% defensive pharma weight, but execute a tactical trim of 20-25% into any relief bounce to the $64-65 zone (10 EMA retest) rather than holding flat through cooling momentum. Trailing stop on residual at $61 closing; cancel-the-order level at $69.50. Re-engagement triggers: add on pullback to $58.71-58.75 (50 SMA/lower Bollinger) with hard stop $55.32, or add on close above $67 with positive MACD histogram crossover and volume.
Maintain a 15-20% tactical trim of BMY into the $66-68 zone, retaining an 80-85% residual position with a trailing stop at $61 on a closing basis. The 9.9x forward P/E already incorporates Eliquis loss-of-exclusivity concerns, and the 3.89% dividend with 1.57x FCF coverage remains defensible in the current higher-for-longer macro environment, but cooling technical momentum (RSI at 63.95, failed $68.10 test) argues against adding fresh capital or aggressive reduction. Re-evaluate after Q3 2026 earnings in October when Eliquis erosion and Growth Portfolio execution will clarify the forward multiple.
Hold BMY at current weight; do not initiate new longs at spot ($64.72). Preserve the 3.93% dividend stream (1.57x FCF coverage) while the Eliquis LOE trajectory and pipeline execution resolve. Cooling momentum signals (RSI 72→63, 10.7% above 50 SMA without retest) make spot entry a momentum chase; the $62-63 zone (10 EMA/20 SMA confluence) offers better risk-reward for potential re-engagement.
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