QCOM

Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

✓

Return

-0.29%

Status

scored

The section recommends trimming QCOM 50-60% immediately near $175-180 over 1-3 sessions to 40-50% residual based on confirmed momentum failure (MACD histogram -2.31, RSI below 50) plus operating deterioration (revenue -4%, inventory +28-32%), following the 10/6 binding lesson. Residual position maintains exposure to the structural floor ($167-172) and foldable iPhone catalyst with a $167.98 hard stop on confirmed close below with volume >15M.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.63%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 30-50% in two tranches (15-20% immediately near $175-180, plus 15-30% contingent on confirmed close below $170 on volume >20M), reducing to 30-40% residual weight—well below the 70-75% preserved in prior Hold calls that generated -2.2% alpha drag. Set hard stop at $167 (200 SMA) for residual position, with reload zones at $150-155 post-capitulation or on confirmed breakout above $202. Underweight is warranted by convergence of momentum failure (lower-high sequence, MACD bearish cross with histogram -2.12, RSI below 50), operating deterioration (revenue -4% YoY, inventory +28% to $8.4B), and structural margin compression (57.8% → 54.2% over four years).

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.16%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at 3-3.5% portfolio weight (neutral sizing) as operating metrics do not justify Underweight despite -4% YoY revenue and +28% inventory buildup, while technical deterioration (negative MACD at -1.82, price below 10 EMA at $184.82) prevents aggressive Buy/Overweight positioning. Hard stop at $167 (200 SMA), intermediate trim at $171.47 close below on volume >15M reduces to 2%, with $188 reclaim and RSI >55 trigger for add-back; price target $185 over 4-8 weeks through Q4 FY26 earnings.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.13%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM exposure at or below benchmark weight with a three-tiered scale-in structure targeting $170 (50 SMA/lower BB convergence), $168 (200 SMA test), and confirmed reversal above 200 SMA with volume >15M and RSI divergence. Trim 15-20% into rallies toward $188-$195 resistance and exit fully on confirmed close below the $167.88 hard stop (200 SMA), downgrading to SELL. The Hold balances the Aggressive Analyst's attractive valuation metrics (PEG 0.82, ROE 33.7%, FCF 6.6%) against active technical deterioration including a likely death cross within 2-4 weeks and three layers of resistance at $185-$188.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.21%

Status

scored

Reduce QCOM 30-50% in staged tranches—front-load 15-20% near $180-184 over 1-3 sessions, reserve 15-30% for confirmed close below $170 on volume >20M. The bearish case requires only one catalyst (50 SMA failure) while the bullish case requires five simultaneous conditions, creating asymmetry that warrants trim over full Sell or Hold. Maintain residual 50-70% weight hedged via 60-90 day collar (sell $215 call / buy $185 put) with hard stop at $168 (200 SMA).

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.53%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 25-30% front-loaded near $180-184 over 1-3 sessions, reducing from 70-75% residual to Underweight weight, as the current operating deterioration (FCF -89% sequential, gross margin compression 54.6%→53.1%, inventory +32% YoY) matches the 9/30 binding lesson that explicitly mandates Underweight over Hold. Hedge the residual with a 60-90 day collar (sell $215 call / buy $185 put), hard stop at $167, PT $175 over 4-8 weeks through Q4 FY26 earnings.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.06%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at ~70-75% residual weight (post-9/29 trim) with a 60-90 day collar hedge (sell $215 call / buy $185 put) and the Neutral Analyst's two-tier add framework; Tier-1 adds 10-15% at ~$170.50 with stabilization signals and Tier-2 adds 10-15% on confirmed breakout above $188.29. Hard stop at $167.77 on original position remains non-negotiable, with trim triggers tied to Q4 FY26 revenue below $10.0B or operating margin below 20%.

Outcome

✗

Return

-0.03%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM to 25-30% below benchmark weight via front-loaded execution near $184 over 1-3 sessions, rejecting the trader's delayed $190-195 relief rally plan; maintain residual position hedged with a 60-90 day collar (sell $210 call/buy $180 put) and hard-stop on confirmed close below $167 on volume >20M, with PT $175 over 4-8 weeks through Q3/Q4 FY26 earnings.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.80%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM to 25-30% below benchmark weight immediately near $187, front-loading execution per the 9/25 binding lesson—the current setup of confirmed double-top, 89% sequential FCF collapse, and hostile macro is the exact configuration it warned about. Hedge the residual 70-75% position with a 60-90 day collar (sell $210 call / buy $180 put) and hard-stop on confirmed close below $170 on volume >20M.

Outcome

✗

Return

-7.17%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at 3-4% portfolio weight with a 15-20% trim targeting $202-205 resistance, paired with a 60-90 day collar (sell $215 call/buy $185 put) to define binary risk into Q4 FY26 earnings; prior Underweight attempts produced -1.4% to -7.7% alpha misses on this structurally-buffered quality compounder, making the HOLD rating binding despite bearish macro and OCF deterioration signals.

Outcome

✗

Return

+3.97%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at 3-4% portfolio weight as a HOLD, using the $201.90+40M volume threshold for tactical additions and a 60-90 day collar (sell $220 call/buy $180 put) to hedge the binary Q4 FY26 earnings catalyst approximately 4 weeks out.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.51%

Status

scored

Underweight QCOM with PT $190 and stop $172, trimming 25-35% below benchmark via two tranches: 15% near $197, additional 10-20% on confirmed close below $187 (10 EMA). The failed $200.25 breakout with volume distribution (54.5M on Sept 18 selloff vs 9.7M on Sept 23 rally) and deteriorating fundamentals (three consecutive quarters of sequential revenue decline: -6.0% Q2, -6.2% Q3; operating margin compression from ~26% to ~16%) present an asymmetric trim opportunity. Implement 60-90 day collar (sell $220 call / buy $180 put) to define risk into the Q4 FY26 print binary catalyst (operating margin trajectory + inventory conversion), targeting 4-8 weeks through early November 2026.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.52%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at Hold rating with a three-stage tiered add framework rather than binary action; do not add at the current $198 level due to unfavorable technicals (RSI 68, upper Bollinger pierced, 1.68 beta). Anchor residual stop at $170 with a 60-90 day collar (sell $220 call/buy $180 put) to define binary risk into the December quarter print and ECOC milestones, targeting $200 over 4-6 months.

Outcome

✓

Return

+2.08%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at Hold with $200 price target as the unanimous cross-analyst view. Anchor stop at $170 (10 EMA / VWMA confluence) and trim 10-15% on confirmed break above $200, with 60-90 day collar (sell $220 call / buy $180 put) to define binary risk into December quarter catalyst.

Outcome

✗

Return

+9.29%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 30-35% using scaled limit orders across $184-186, $188-190, and $190-193, leaving residual at 50-60% of normal allocation, with hard stop at $177 (below 10 EMA) and structural exit at $155 only if 200 SMA fails on volume; redeploy freed capital into 1-3yr Treasuries at 5%+ yields while retaining residual for QTL annuity and FY29 optionality.

Outcome

✓

Return

-5.82%

Status

scored

Underweight QCOM with a 30-35% trim targeting ~65% of prior weight, deploying freed capital into 1-3yr Treasuries at 5%+ yields. Hard stop at $177 (below 10 EMA) with price target anchored to 50 SMA at $168 per binding 9/15 lesson, providing ~11% downside; maintain remainder through Sep 24 Trump-Xi catalyst with tiered re-entry at $170-174 (Tier 1), $160-165 (Tier 2), and thesis invalidation below $155.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.09%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 30-35% immediately at $184.84 with staged limit orders, redeploying freed capital into 1-3yr Treasuries at 5%+ yields; residual position sized at 50% of normal allocation with hard stop at $177 (below 10 EMA) and structural exit at $168 (200 SMA). Tiered re-engagement framework allows staged adds at $170-174 on pullback with volume confirmation, on explicit DC revenue disclosure, and on inventory below $7.8B with operating margin above 19%, targeting $170 over 6-9 months through Q4 FY26 print and December 2026 AWS execution milestones.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.58%

Status

scored

Trim 40-45% of QCOM position at $187.80 to reduce beta exposure given deteriorating macro conditions and overextended technicals (RSI 70.4, 11.8% above 50 SMA). Redeploy freed capital into short-duration Treasuries earning 5%+ yields while maintaining a hard stop on residual at $170-172 and staged re-entry tranches at $175, $172, and $170.

Outcome

✗

Return

+4.25%

Status

scored

Maintain neutral weight on QCOM at current levels ($180-182) as the BOLL_UB rejection with declining volume signals distribution rather than continuation; wait for pullback to $170-174 (10 EMA/50 SMA confluence) with >15M volume confirmation before adding, using $166.50 (200 SMA) as the hard stop and $157.67 as the structural exit. The $180 price target is intentionally set at current price to represent true neutral rather than a disguised Underweight with a sub-current PT.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.00%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at Hold with symmetric risk-reward at current $177 levels (~7.3% upside to $190 vs 6.0% downside to $166.35 stop), where five live unknowns (AWS revenue timing, Samsung 2nm pricing, Fed direction, inventory normalization, Apple modem acceleration) prevent upgrading, while 33.75% ROE and $16B annual capital return provide structural floor support preventing a downgrade. Execute a 15-25% position add on confirmed pullback to $167.78-$170.47 (50 SMA/10 EMA confluence) with RSI reset below 55, and trim 15-25% into $188-190 resistance on volume confirmation.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.88%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 25-30% at current $176-180 zone using staged limit orders, reducing to ~65-75% of current weight, given operating margin compression of 700-1,200 bps, FCF decline of 74% QoQ to $0.50B, and inventory up 32% YoY vs revenue down 4%. Set stop at $155 (above 200 SMA at $166) with re-entry triggered only on confirmed close above $185 with volume >15M and MACD positive; full re-engagement tied to December 2026 AWS checkpoint and Q1 FY27 print.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.27%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at neutral weight given symmetric risk-reward at current $176.40 entry (R/R only 0.24:1 to $180, 0.94:1 to $190) versus the 1.5:1 threshold required for fresh adds; the 9/4 lesson is binding that coiled setups with intact structural floors default to Hold rather than Underweight. Tiered entry framework preserves optionality: accumulate on pullback to $169–174, more aggressively at $162–166, with breakout add only on confirmed daily close >$181 on volume >18M. Hard stop at $166.25 (200 SMA) with structural exit at $148; trim partial profits into $184–188 and fully re-evaluate at $195+.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.33%

Status

scored

Trim 35-40% of QCOM exposure on Sept 9 open at $170–172 to reduce downside from sequential revenue decline (-19% peak-to-trough), FCF collapse ($4.42B to $495M), and hostile macro (1.68 beta, Fed cut odds at 6%, Iran/oil risk). Retain 60-65% residual at ≤2% of portfolio to preserve AWS catalyst optionality and QTL royalty floor; hard stop on residual at $167 (50/200 SMA confluence), not the stale $152 reference. Pre-commit additional 15-20% trim on adverse AAPL or CPI catalysts. Re-evaluate at Q4 FY26 print (early November 2026) to resolve bear vs. bull thesis.

Outcome

✗

Return

+3.17%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 30-35% on rallies into the $170-172 zone with a hard stop at $158 on retained residual, as the risk-reward asymmetry is negative (upside to $186 is +10.5% vs downside to $158 stop is -6.4%). Pre-commit re-entry at confirmed close >$170.32 on volume ≥10M with MACD above signal, adding back up to half the trimmed size. Re-evaluate at Q4 FY26 print in November 2026; escalate to Sell on close below $158 or confirmed Apple modem acceleration.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.10%

Status

scored

Maintain Hold rating on QCOM with current exposure intact and no incremental commitment until a confirmed breakout above $170.50 on volume >10M shares (Tranche 1), pullback to ~$178 (Tranche 2), or Q1 FY27 earnings validate the diversification thesis (Tranche 3). Hard stop at $155; breach invalidates the structural floor thesis. The Neutral analyst's half-tranche starter was explicitly rejected for violating the 9/2 lesson requiring 1.5:1 reward-to-risk and the 8/27 scaffolding-friction guidance, as current R/R is roughly 1:1.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.82%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at base weight with defined triggers on both sides—the add trigger sits at confirmed close above $171.41 on volume ≥12M with RSI in the 60-70 range, while the trim trigger activates on confirmed close below $155 on volume. The symmetric risk/reward profile (roughly 8.8% downside versus 6-12% upside from current ~$170 entry) argues against adding into resistance, while the durable structural floor (33.8% ROE, $16B annual capital return) argues against trimming ahead of the Q4 FY26 print as the binary catalyst.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.01%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 40% (heavier than 25-33% consensus) based on FCF collapse of 89% ($4.42B → $0.50B), 200 SMA breach ($166.61 vs $167.06), -4% YoY revenue contraction, net debt +41% funding buybacks at 155% of FCF, and distribution signature at $170.48 rejection. Retain ~60% residual with $180 stop-loss and hard escalation trigger at $162.87; redeploy proceeds into NVDA/AVGO rather than cash. Time horizon is 3-6 months through Q3 FY26 (early November) and Q4 FY26 (early February) prints.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.27%

Status

scored

Trim 25-30% of QCOM exposure at the $173.64 zone (50 SMA resistance) while retaining 70-75% as a watching brief, with stop-loss at $167 (200 SMA). No hedge layer is recommended based on prior evidence that trim-plus-hedge frameworks leak alpha through premium drag in coiled regimes. Re-engagement requires confirmed close above $167 on volume ≥12M with MACD expansion, with full size restoration pending Q3 FY26 print validation.

Outcome

✗

Return

+3.83%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 40-50% over 1-2 sessions near $164-168 while retaining a 50-60% residual core position sized to ~1.5-2% of portfolio, avoiding any hedge structures per the 8/27 lesson; defined invalidation triggers sit at $154.92 downside and $173.51 upside, with Q3 FY26 earnings (early November) serving as the binary catalyst before committing additional capital.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.36%

Status

scored

Analysts unanimously recommend trimming QCOM exposure by 25-30% to reduce concentration risk, retaining 70-75% with a light 60-90 day put hedge (30-40% of residual) as insurance against the Jackson Hole binary and Q3 FY26 earnings. The Underweight call reflects 19% revenue decline, 74% FCF collapse, $2.7B cash drawdown, and 1.66 beta in a hawkish macro environment, with hard downside reassessment at $146 close on volume >12M and tiered re-engagement triggers at $167.08 and $174.49.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.65%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM at current sizing with no adds or trims, as the 7.5% total shareholder yield and $14.4B TTM OCF create a structural floor preventing a Sell, while the 80% sequential OCF collapse, 1,100bps margin compression, and broken technical trends prevent a Buy. Convert passive drift into disciplined structure via two-of-three upgrade triggers (200 SMA reclaim on volume, RSI >55 for 3 sessions, inventory normalization OR op margin >20%) with explicit downgrade triggers ($147.50 close on volume >12M OR next quarter inventory build with revenue softness).

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.97%

Status

scored

Reduce QCOM by 25-50% given deteriorating fundamentals (80.8% FCF collapse, 1,030 bps operating margin compression, 32% inventory build against -4% revenue) while retaining residual exposure for AI optionality; execute trim before the Aug 26 NVDA catalyst with hard stop at $155 on residual, and do not re-engage until price reclaims $167 (200 SMA) with volume confirmation.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.28%

Status

scored

Analysts unanimously recommend holding QCOM at current sizing, with Hold outperforming both Underweight (which has generated negative alpha on 4 of 5 recent calls) and Buy (given the confirmed downtrend, 250bps gross margin compression, and FCF decline of 89%). Conditional re-engagement at $150-$155 should only trigger if RSI holds above 25, MACD histogram remains positive, and no close below $147.61 on rising volume occurs.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.38%

Status

scored

QCOM is rated Underweight with a recommendation to trim 30-40% of exposure in two tranches ($160-162 now, $165-168 limit orders later) while retaining ~50-60% of benchmark weight. The call reflects deteriorating fundamentals including 260bps gross margin compression, four straight revenue declines, 32% YoY inventory build, and a contaminated 0.71 PEG ratio (clean P/E is actually 27-29x), with negative asymmetry of ~11-18% upside versus 23%+ downside to the $123-126 zone.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.01%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM to 60-70% of current exposure over 2-3 sessions into the $160-167 zone, with hard stop at $144 closing basis below the 7/31 low; re-engagement requires either December quarter confirming non-handset inflection with operating margin recovery above 20%, or capitulation to $130-140 with RSI below 25. The position sizing captures asymmetric downside (2:1+ negative asymmetry with binary catalysts pending) while preserving franchise floor participation through the ~$45B automotive pipeline tail.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.72%

Status

scored

Maintaining HOLD at current sizing as the probability-weighted expected value of ~$160 does not justify Underweight given the structural floor from $12.82B FCF and 7.4% capital return yield, while the broken medium-term trend (price below declining 50 SMA, 200 SMA as resistance) and binary catalysts (Apple iPhone 18 modem decision in September, Q4 FY26 earnings in early November) warrant patience rather than fresh capital deployment. The hard stop at $149.00 protects against the 1:1.5 to 1:2.4 negative asymmetry while explicit $167 breakout and $149 breakdown triggers provide disciplined re-evaluation points.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.07%

Status

scored

QCOM remains Underweight at 50% benchmark weight (reduced from 75%) with hard stop at $148 and two-tranche trim targets at $162 and $167. The 8/17 calibration lesson is applied: the residual itself becomes the alpha leak when binary catalysts (Q4 FY26 earnings, Apple iPhone 18 modem decision) remain unresolved, so sizing is cut to reduce exposure to asymmetric downside while preserving participation if $167 resistance breaks. Pure Sell is avoided to sidestep short-side squeeze risk into coiled Bollinger expansion with positive MACD divergence, and Hold is rejected to avoid passive carry absorbing full drawdown without redeployment optionality.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.23%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 20-25% over 2-3 sessions at $162-163 and $159-160 to reduce to ~75% of benchmark weight, given 2:1+ negative magnitude asymmetry (upside ~3.4% to $167.60 vs. downside ~8.7% to $148 or ~17% to $135), two failed 200 SMA reclaims confirming resistance, and a binary Q4 FY26 catalyst window. Retain residual exposure to capture the structural floor (PEG 0.71, 33.75% ROE, $12.8B FCF) that limits downside.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.18%

Status

scored

HOLD QCOM at ~$165.79 maintaining current exposure with no additions or trims. The bull case is supported by strong fundamentals (PEG 0.7, 33.75% ROE, $10B TTM FCF, 8.5% shareholder yield) while the bear case centers on technical weakness (price below 200 SMA at $167.67, MACD at -5.19) and recent fundamental deterioration (operating income halved, FCF collapsed to $495M in Q3). The recommendation incorporates an intermediate confirmation trigger at $167.67 (25% add on close above 200 SMA with volume >12M) and flags $158 VWMA as an early warning level before the $148 breakdown is confirmed.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.61%

Status

scored

Maintain QCOM exposure at $164.79 without adding; the $160–$175 zone is a buying exclusion, and the next earnings print in late October/early November represents a binary catalyst that warrants waiting for either capitulation to $148–$150 or confirmed trend reversal above $167.76 on volume ≥1.5x average before scaling in. Hard stop at $147.61 closing basis, with trim triggers at Q4 print ≤$9.7B with inventory build and full exit if close <$147.61 with ATR >$12.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.05%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM to ~70% of benchmark weight (25-33% reduction) via 2-3 tranches at $163, $159, and $156, given fundamental deterioration including 1,030bps operating margin compression, three consecutive revenue declines, and 80% peak-to-trough OCF decline. Set hard stop at $147.00 closing basis with second-stage reduction to 50% benchmark weight on confirmed close below $147 with volume >12M shares.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.24%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM by 20-30% in 2-3 tranches ($162/$159/$156) over 3-5 sessions, holding residual at conservative ATR-adjusted sizing with stop at $146.50, as the Underweight call captures the 2:1 negative skew with upcoming CPI and Q4 FY26 catalysts while preserving exposure to the structural floor (PEG 0.70, 33.75% ROE, $12.82B FCF).

Outcome

–

Return

+0.31%

Status

scored

Trim QCOM 25-40% relative to benchmark via 3-5 session tranches at limit levels $162, $160, $158, with a closing-basis stop at $173-175. Underweight justified by 33% EPS collapse, 89% FCF decline, and damaged technicals (failed 200 SMA retest, MACD below zero), though fundamental floors (0.72 PEG, 15.8x P/E, $10B+ FCF) prevent an outright Sell. Reassess to Buy only on a confirmed close above $167.81 on volume >12M shares, or downgrade to Sell if price flushes below $147.61.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.39%

Status

scored

Analysts converge on Hold for QCOM given negative magnitude asymmetry (5-7% upside vs 12-27% downside) despite positive probability tilt from macro supports, $11B annual buyback, and elite quality metrics (ROE 33.75%, PEG 0.67, PE 16.3x). The volume-confirmed 200 SMA reclaim at $167.86 on 8.66M shares was unconvincing—below the 13-24M prior range—and the close being just $0.03 above the line lacks margin of safety. Disciplined framework requires holding existing position without adding into unconfirmed pivot, not exiting on ambiguous tape, and executing defined triggers for entry, exit, trim, and hard floor at $160/$146.