BRK-B

Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

✗

Return

+0.89%

Status

scored

Maintain Hold on BRK-B as the 10/07 binding reflection is dispositive and overrides both the Underweight call and incremental caution. The 3.7% proximity to 200 SMA ($511 vs $492.79), intact structural floor ($365B cash, 0.595 beta, 0.98x P/B), and near-zero expected alpha for sub-15% trims on low-beta compounders make hold-neutral with hedge the default. Hard stop at $485 and trailing stop at $492 (200 SMA) manage risk through the Q3 earnings catalyst in mid-November.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.95%

Status

scored

Trim to neutral weight at $504–$508 executed over 2–3 sessions, with primary alpha sourced from the mandatory 1–2% SPY put spread hedge ($500/$485, Nov expiry) rather than position reduction alone. Hard stop at $487 (below 200 SMA by $5); re-engage on close >$510 with volume ≥1.5× 20-day avg and MACD bullish cross, or on reversal candle in $495–$498 zone. Position capped at neutral weight (≥70% of benchmark), not below, pending confirmed 200 SMA failure on >4M volume. Explicit reassessment at Q3 2026 10-Q (mid-November) for normalized operating earnings ex-mark-to-market.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.14%

Status

scored

Trim 10% of BRK-B position at $505-506, maintaining 90% core through Q3 2026 earnings, as the bear case wins on forward valuation (23.4x fwd P/E), mark-to-market distortion, and succession overhang, while structural defenses (200 SMA at $492.79, $365B cash, beta 0.595) justify holding the remainder.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.25%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold with no directional changes ahead of Q3 earnings. The 5-sample empirical record shows near-zero alpha for both Hold (-0.33% avg) and Underweight (-0.05% avg) calls on this template, making pre-committed trimming unjustified. Trim only on confirmed strength (close >$510 on volume), reaccumulate on weakness toward $495-500 with hard stop at the 200 SMA ($492.79). Mandatory SPY put spread hedge ($500/$485, Nov expiry) remains mandatory given AAPL+GOOGL concentration exceeding 50% of equity book.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.32%

Status

scored

The three-analyst consensus supports a directional reduction on BRK-B, but execution disagreement leads to a calibrated Underweight rather than Sell. The 15-20% trim should execute immediately at $502-$505 (current levels) rather than waiting for a forecast rally to $517, which the manager characterizes as "precision theater" requiring unnecessary sequential conditions. The $492.77 stop on the remaining 80-85% position preserves structural thesis exposure through the Q3 2026 earnings catalyst window while containing downside risk given the fortress balance sheet ($277B net cash) and 200 SMA proximity.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.43%

Status

scored

Hold BRK-B with a hard stop at $488-490; the 9/30 binding reflection directly invalidates pre-committed trimming at the 200 SMA support level ($492.78) with a Q3 2026 earnings catalyst imminent. The $365B cash hoard, $72B TTM FCF, and 0.603 beta preserve the structural compounding thesis, while mandatory 1-2% SPY put spread hedges the AAPL+GOOGL concentration risk above 50% of the equity book. Re-engagement requires a close above $507.14 on volume ≥1.5x average with MACD histogram contracting.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.51%

Status

scored

Underweight BRK-B with a 15-20% trim executed at the $497-500 zone, maintaining 80-85% core through the imminent 200 SMA binary test and mid-November catalyst window. Momentum has deteriorated since the 9/29 binding lesson (MACD -1.26 vs -0.97, RSI 39.60 vs 44, 200 SMA cushion halved to $5.17), validating the trim-to-Underweight rather than Hold. Mandatory 1-2% SPY put spread hedge remains in place through Q3 earnings.

Outcome

✗

Return

-0.88%

Status

scored

Hold BRK-B at current weight with no addition at $502.35 (elevated 22.6x forward P/E and negative momentum) and no trim (200 SMA at $492.77 floor intact, $365B cash fortress, P/B less than 1.0). The balanced setup between structural quality and stretched valuation produces negligible marginal alpha, warranting a simplified two-trigger framework rather than elaborate tiered scaling.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.15%

Status

scored

Analysts converge on HOLD for BRK-B at $503, with the binding 9/25 reflection (+0.3% alpha) confirming this calibration is operationally correct. Existing positions remain untouched given the fortress balance sheet ($365B liquid investments, 17% D/E, $72B FCF) and intact 200 SMA at $492.71; scaling-in is structured at $495 (25%), $492 (50%), and $480-485 (10-15% with reversal confirmation), with hard stop at $488 and mandatory 1-2% SPY put spread hedge ($500/$485). Reassess at Q3 2026 earnings (mid-November).

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.47%

Status

scored

HOLD BRK-B at the current 5% portfolio cap given balanced risks: the $373B cash fortress (12.71x trailing PE, 32.6% operating margin) provides genuine defensive mechanics, but 22.78x forward PE exceeding S&P ~22x, ~25% YoY GAAP earnings decline, and 90% Polymarket-priced probability of additional hikes create near-term headwinds. Adopt a staged scaling approach—add in tranches toward the 200-SMA at $492 on weakness—while preserving the $515 breakout trigger for adds above the cap, with hard stop at $478 and mandatory AAPL+GOOGL concentration hedge.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.06%

Status

scored

Underweight BRK-B with a calibrated 25-30% trim into strength at the $515-519.80 zone, justified by forward P/E divergence (22.8x forward vs 12.7x trailing, signaling ~44% EPS normalization) and confirmed technical deterioration including two lower highs, negative MACD histogram at -0.62, and two RSI failures at 70. The 200 SMA structural floor at $492.60, $365B cash, and $4.21B buyback regime constrain the downgrade to Underweight rather than Sell, while mandatory 1-2% SPY put spread hedging addresses the AAPL+GOOGL concentration risk exceeding 50% of equity book.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.39%

Status

scored

Analysts recommend HOLD on BRK-B at current weight, citing a neutral setup near the 50 SMA ($505.46) that is neither extended enough to warrant trim nor sufficiently confirmed for addition. The $529 price target represents modest upside, with upside add triggers at $508.86 (10 EMA) with MACD confirmation, and downside exit triggers at $492.60 (200 SMA) on elevated volume. A 1.5% portfolio cap and SPY/VIX hedge overlay are recommended through the Q3 2026 earnings catalyst window in early November.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.73%

Status

scored

BRK-B is rated Underweight with a recommendation to trim 15-20% of the existing position into strength at $509-510 rather than at current $503 price. The forward PE of 22.7x for a 44% EPS-reset single-digit growth conglomerate is deemed rich, but the structural floor (200 SMA at $492.59, $365B cash, P/B below 1.0) caps the trim magnitude at 15-20% rather than the 25-40% previously attempted. A mandatory 1-2% SPY put spread hedge ($500/$485) is required due to AAPL+GOOGL concentration exceeding 50% of equity book.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.29%

Status

scored

Underweight BRK-B tactical with trim to ~40% below benchmark weight (more aggressive than the trader's 25-30% given multi-indicator breakdown). Stage exit discipline: cut remaining half on close below $497.93 (lower Bollinger), exit rest on close below $492.59 (200 SMA), hard stop at $489. Deploy 1-2% SPY put spread ($500/$485, Sept-Oct) as mandatory concentration hedge. Re-assess at Q3 2026 earnings (mid-November) for normalized operating earnings and Abel deployment regime confirmation.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.52%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold with strict 1.5% portfolio cap, rejecting both the Research Manager's Underweight and trader's SELL. The pattern database across 12+ iterations is dispositive on Hold (+0.1% to +1.3% alpha), and today's $509.77 setup does NOT meet the 9/16 invalidation threshold (price 1.9% below $519.80, RSI ~52 vs 67.28). The 9/8 binding lesson re-engages: future identical setups default to Hold-with-1.5%-cap posture; the 50-75% trim would recreate the 8/24 error pattern.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.11%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold rating with 1.5% portfolio cap as expected value at current $509 level is approximately $499 (flat to modestly negative). Stage scaled entries at $504-506 on 50 SMA retest with volume (30% allocation), $495 on lower Bollinger touch (30%), and $485 on capitulation flush (40%). Concentration hedge via 1-2% SPY put spread or VIX calls is mandatory given the AAPL+GOOGL tail risk established by the 9/10 binding lesson.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.04%

Status

scored

Maintain Hold with strict 1.5% portfolio cap on a configuration that has rejected Buy 11 consecutive times; price at $519.80 is the most extended in the 12-iteration sequence with RSI 67.28 near overbought threshold and triple-tested resistance at $529.42 overhead. The Overweight-ready posture requires either a pullback to the $504-508 zone (50 SMA/10 EMA confluence) for scaled adds or a confirmed breakout above $529.42 on volume >5M with MACD histogram expanding toward +0.30+ before escalating rating.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.59%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold with strict 1.5% portfolio cap as the upper Bollinger Band breach at $515.27 combined with 23.3x forward P/E presents mean-reversion risk rather than a conviction breakout entry; scale-in adds only on pullbacks to the $504-508 zone with full position size at $504.20 clean touch. The Q2 EPS surge of 108% was 69% sourced from mark-to-market on the equity portfolio, not operational performance, making the aggressive analyst's tactical Buy premature despite solid structural thesis. The 1.5% cap is binding per the 8/26 concentration lesson, with an optional SPY put hedge to address recession tail risk.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.35%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold as the 11th iteration of this signal configuration, which has produced near-zero to slightly positive alpha (+0.6% to +0.9%) across eight-to-ten consecutive Hold calls. The 1.5% portfolio cap remains binding and is now paired with explicit concentration hedging (optional 1-2% SPY put hedge) per the 9/10 escalation. Entry asymmetry remains unfavorable at current $514.95 (bear: -22% de-rate risk vs bull: +8% re-rate ceiling), with price 1.72 points above upper Bollinger Band ($513.23) representing a textbook exhaustion-zone entry historically prone to mean-reversion.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.90%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold with strict 1.5% portfolio cap, adopting the neutral analyst's three operational refinements: explicit FOMC hedge via 20-30% reduction into Sept 16 OR $500/$485 put spread for Sept expiry, relative-strength trim filter requiring underperformance to S&P/XLF on the $515+ move, and Precision Castparts treated as upside optionality rather than embedded SOTP value. The aggressive analyst's BUY case is premature despite valid asymmetric forward P/E (23 vs 12.84 TTM) and constructive Q2 metrics ($117.9B revenue +19% YoY) because Q2's $25.7B net income includes $15.9B mark-to-market noise, PCP's ~$100B valuation rests on a single peak-cycle comparable, and FOMC binary risk is not 80% priced.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.66%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold with a strict 1.5% portfolio cap, preserving exposure to constructive structural factors ($365B cash, $4.21B Q2 buyback resumption, record Q2 operating earnings, price above all moving averages) while awaiting breakout confirmation beyond the symmetric invalidation levels at $510.47 upside and $503.60 downside. The 10th consecutive iteration of this MACD bullish-cross-with-compressed-ATR setup has produced near-zero alpha (+0.6% to -0.9%) across eight prior Hold calls, validating the wait-and-see discipline over aggressive sizing or preemptive trimming.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.06%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at HOLD with 1.5% portfolio cap, rejecting SELL/Underweight proposals that the 9-iteration pattern database unanimously validates against. The constructive tactical view is expressed through explicit Overweight-ready execution framework—scaled adds on $513 breakout or $497 capitulation—rather than rating escalation. Hard triggers unchanged at $492.42 (Underweight) and $513 (Overweight), with Q3 2026 earnings review for operational normalization.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.18%

Status

scored

The 9th consecutive Hold on BRK-B is maintained due to three binding constraints: a dispositive pattern database (8 consecutive Hold calls producing near-zero alpha), stretched forward P/E math (22.8x on normalized EPS with de-rate risk), and operative concentration limits (AAPL+GOOGL+Amex exceeds 50% of equity book). The constructive tactical view (rising SMAs, RSI reset to 51, accelerating buybacks at $4.21B/Q2, $18B carry on $366B cash) is expressed through an explicit Overweight-ready deployment framework that activates only on confirmed breakout above $513 or capitulation below $497 — not as a rating upgrade today.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.04%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold with tightened 1.5% portfolio cap (down from 2%) given Alphabet compounding 5-name concentration to 63%. Do not add above $510 without Alphabet Polymarket resolution confirming the bull thesis; trim gradually starting at $515 (upper Bollinger band) scaling into $524-$529 for a total 10-20% reduction. Stop moved to $489-$490 (below 200 SMA at $492.41) to absorb wick-out noise.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.41%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at current weight with strict 2% portfolio cap and no additions in the $505–$515 no-man's-land; the 8/24 lesson pattern is dispositive against Underweight (every prior Hold against this signal configuration generated positive alpha), while the 8/26 concentration lesson prevents Buy/Overweight at stretched 22.9x forward P/E. Use $501.50 as hard mental invalidation and $511 on 5M+ volume as the only legitimate add trigger, with $492–$496 capitulation zone as alternative entry on 200 SMA test.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.57%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at current weight with strict 2% portfolio cap discipline at ~$505. The structural defense (200 SMA at $492.44, $365B cash, $4.21B Q2 buyback) argues against Underweight, while technical deterioration (MACD bearish cross, 22.8x forward P/E premium, 50% concentration in AAPL+GOOGL) argues against Buy/Overweight adds. Consider tactical hedging via SPY puts or VIX calls through the September 18 BOJ catalyst rather than directional trimming.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.58%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold with strict 2% portfolio cap discipline; the report rejects both Underweight (based on five prior validations that Hold generated alpha vs. -0.3% to -0.9% drag from directional trimming) and Buy/Overweight (due to 15-session MACD bearish signal, expanding histogram, and 22.64x P/E premium to S&P). The Trade Proposal's entry at $505 with stop at $508 is deemed structurally incoherent. Hard triggers: close below $501.94 on volume >4M escalates to Underweight; close above $509.53 with contracting MACD histogram triggers staged add toward Overweight.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.34%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at Hold with a 2% portfolio cap. The 22.7x forward P/E and bearish MACD crossover prevent adding at current $504 levels, but intact structural trends (rising 200 SMA at $492.40, $4.21B Q2 buyback resumption, $365B cash hoard) prevent trimming. Scale incremental exposure into a $492–$501 zone with hard stop at $492 on volume >4M shares.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.19%

Status

scored

Initiate BRK-B at $500 with a Buy rating and disciplined 2-2.5% position sizing (scaling in via tranches: 1% at $500-505, 0.5% at $495-500, 0.5% at $489-492 retest) based on the confluence defense zone at the rising 200 SMA ($492), defended $495 low, and Bollinger lower band ($489.68), with a hard stop at $489; expected value calculation of +$9.75/share supports entry despite broken momentum and 22.76x P/E premium.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.26%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at current levels (no adds or trims at $503.70) with strict 2% portfolio cap discipline, as the 200 SMA structural floor at $492 remains untested and buyback absorption plus fortress balance sheet support the position. The technical setup is broken (50 SMA lost, MACD at −1.16, price below VWMA and Bollinger midline) preventing a Buy/Overweight upgrade, while the 8/24 lesson against the conservative analyst's trim pattern and the 200 SMA integrity prevent an Underweight downgrade. Entry triggers for future rating changes are pre-committed: staged add on close above $509.53–$510 with MACD contraction, trim on close below $492 on volume >4M, and tactical add on hawkish Jackson Hole gap ≥2%.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.24%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at 2% portfolio cap despite bearish tactical signals (MACD bearish cross, expanding negative histogram, VWAP ceiling at $508.80) and elevated forward P/E (~22.75x vs S&P ~19x) because the 8/24 lesson is directly dispositive — active trimming against intact structural trend (price > 50 SMA > 200 SMA, all rising) produces alpha drag; next review at Q3 2026 earnings in early November, with invalidation if close below $492 on volume >4M.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.12%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at current sizing with no aggressive add or trim. The structural thesis (golden cross, rising 200 SMA at $492, $689B liquidity, $4.21B Q2 buyback resumption) prevents Underweight, but negative MACD histogram, 22.7x forward P/E, and proximity to 52-week high prevent Buy at $500-510. Execute scaled entry via three one-third increments: VWMA reclaim at $510 with contracting MACD histogram; pullback to $495-500 with positive MACD divergence; and final third on pullback to $485 or breakout above $529.

Outcome

–

Return

0.00%

Status

scored

Trim BRK-B by ~30% near $504, capping allocation at 2% of portfolio, with hard stop at $495.82; do not initiate new longs at current levels. Re-entry requires either a defended 200 SMA test at $489-492 with MACD histogram bottoming and RSI >40, or a VWMA reclaim at $510 with histogram contracting toward zero; escalate to full Sell on confirmed close below $491 on volume >4M.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.71%

Status

scored

Initiate a Buy on Berkshire Hathaway at $495 with staged tranche accumulation totaling 2.5–3% of portfolio, scaling in via three 1% tranches tied to price and momentum confirmations. Hard stop set at $487 (below 200 SMA and Lower BB confluence at $492.12 and $490.34 respectively), with invalidation on close below $487 with volume >4M. Three profit targets at $505–510, $520–529, and $545+ with partial exits, in a 3–6 month tactical time horizon.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.21%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B exposure with a hard stop at $492 on a daily close basis with volume confirmation (>4M shares), trimming 25-40% if support breaks to avoid chasing into a deteriorating momentum stack. Consider staged entry on a close above $501 with RSI holding above 45 and MACD histogram bottoming, reserving full conviction for Q3 earnings validation in early November.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.55%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B in HOLD with a stop at $485, allowing the 200 SMA confluence zone ($489-$492) to play out as support rather than exiting prematurely. Stage a 25-33% incremental add at the support zone with loosened momentum preconditions (slowing negative MACD histogram, RSI above 40) or a full add on confirmed 10 EMA reclaim at $506.76 with positive MACD histogram. Trim 20-25% on a decisive weekly close above $545. The position is structurally defensible given $365B cash (34% of market cap) and the Q2 buyback resumption ($4.21B), but tactically fragile given seven consecutive sessions of expanding negative MACD histogram and a forward P/E of ~22.7x.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.66%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at $502.96 without adding at spot; stage entries at $486.87 (Bollinger lower band on capitulation volume) or $508.34 (10 EMA reclaim with rising MACD). Hard stop for new tranches at $491.82; a volume-confirmed close below this level warrants Underweight reassessment, while buyback resumption or a $508.34 reclaim would justify upgrade to Overweight. The 8/17 lesson demonstrating BRK-B's structural resilience (Aaa rating, $373B cash, $177.5B float, 0.6 beta) invalidates both aggressive trimming and premature adding without confirmation.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.95%

Status

scored

Trim BRK-B by 20% near $498 to cap the residual at 2% of portfolio, based on deteriorating technicals (below 10 EMA and 50 SMA, bearish MACD cross), benchmark underperformance since $504-$510, and haven failure during the August bond/oil shock. Maintain a small residual position to reassess on either a volume-confirmed reclaim above $510-$512 with positive MACD histogram or capitulation in the $470-$478 zone with RSI below 30.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.15%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B exposure at $504 with a tiered add framework pending technical confirmation—either a 50 SMA reversal with volume >4M and RSI reclaiming 50, or a MACD histogram turn-positive will trigger a quarter-size initial add, with subsequent thirds scaled to 10 EMA ($512) and $529 breakouts. The hard stop sits at $489 (below 200 SMA), and a 10-session reassessment window addresses prior holds that lapsed into inaction without embedded indicator triggers.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.57%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at $506.93 with Hold rating as the buyback halt signals caution while structural quality (12.9x TTM P/E, $373B cash, 32.6% margins) prevents selling into weakness. Stage entry at $498-500 (50 SMA) with MACD/RSI confirmation rather than adding at current price, with hard stop below 200 SMA at $488-490 and trim 20-25% if price reaches $545.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.60%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at $510 without adding fresh capital, as the current 1:1 risk/reward lacks asymmetry—$20 upside to $529-532 versus $21 downside to $489. A small conditional starter (0.25-0.5% portfolio) triggers only on a confirmed close above the 10 EMA ($515.37) with above-average volume, converting passive Hold into execution-ready positioning. Hard stop at 50 SMA ($497.75) on a closing basis; reassess after Q3 2026 earnings in early November.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.24%

Status

scored

Trim 20-25% of BRK-B exposure at $516 given mean-reversion setup with 5-10% downside risk and the binary CPI catalyst within 18 hours; hard stop on remaining position at $487 (below 200 SMA at $491). Reload zone is $497-$505 on the 50 SMA, with $491-$497 as higher-conviction band, but defer reload decisions until after the CPI print.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.46%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at $529 with a HOLD rating; do not chase the 52-week high entry but set scaled buy-limit orders in the $505–516 zone to add on pullback. Hard stop at $485 on closing basis, trim 25–33% above $545, and take further profit above $580. Target 5–7% portfolio weight as a core holding with re-evaluation after Q3 2026 earnings and 13F filings.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.46%

Status

scored

Maintain BRK-B at current levels as the $521.80 entry presents unfavorable risk/reward given RSI 70.12, forward P/E 24.19, and halted buybacks ($0 in 2025 vs $9.2B in 2023), though structural quality remains compelling with TTM P/E 15.54, $373B cash, and 0.607 beta that justifies continued ownership. Post-earnings re-engagement is targeted at $505-510 on constructive cash/buyback disclosure, with a 50-75% sizing approach aligned to the 10-EMA retest.