FDX

Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

✓

Return

-0.01%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at Hold with a 10-15% defensive trim as the empirically validated sweet spot, supported by the 10/07 binding reflection which proved the structural floor ($13.3B cash, 1.05x net debt/EBITDA, FCF inflection to $5.12B+, Freight LTL separation pipeline, locked 5.9% GRI) prevents capitulation even in identical bearish setups; Trader's SELL and Research Manager's Underweight calls are rejected per the binding lesson that magnitude overshoot at 20-25% cost alpha in the prior cycle. A hard close-only stop at $278 is maintained, with acceleration to 25-30% trim triggered on confirmed daily close below $278 on volume ≥1.5M, while avoiding fresh capital adds through the Oct 28 Q1 FY27 earnings catalyst and reassessing post-print.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.93%

Status

scored

Underweight FDX with a 20-25% trim ahead of the Oct 28 Q1 FY27 earnings catalyst, citing confirmed 200 SMA breakdown ($289.13 close vs $297.30 SMA), Iran-driven fuel-cost headwinds, and Polymarket's 63% implied miss probability, while retaining core exposure to avoid outright shorting due to short-squeeze tail risk on a 1.33-beta name. Hard close-only stop at $278; re-engage on post-earnings reclaim of $297 or confirmed beat with raised FY27 guidance.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.00%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at Hold with 10-15% defensive trim preserved; do not add fresh capital at $277 given the seven-week downtrend, broken 200 SMA at $297, restructuring charges escalating from $309M to $1,137M over three years, and Polymarket 33% beat probability for the binary Oct 28 Q1 FY27 earnings catalyst. Hard close-only stop at $278 with confirmed daily close below triggering 25-30% accelerated trim toward $260-265; consider Dec $280-285 puts at 1.5-2% of portfolio if position exceeds 3% of book.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.03%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at HOLD with the 10-15% defensive trim magnitude preserved through the Oct 28 Q1 FY27 binary catalyst—do not add on weakness at $290 due to 200 SMA breakdown, weak 4% bounce off $279 with no volume confirmation, and re-widening MACD negative. A hard close-only stop is set at $278.40; re-engagement requires either a post-earnings hold above the 200 SMA ($297) on above-average volume or a clean gap-and-go reclaim of $305 with follow-through.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.42%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at HOLD with 10-15% defensive trim (lower bound of validated range), retaining core at 0.6-0.7x normal sizing. The 10-15% envelope honors both the 9/25 empirical sweet spot (+2.1% alpha) and the 9/28 lesson that 15-20% overshoots when structural floor holds ($13.3B cash, FCF +71.7% YoY, Freight spinoff optionality). Execute trim into $290-295 resistance zone, with hard close-only stop at $278 and tail hedge via $280-strike puts if premium below 1.5%.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.15%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at Hold with 10-15% defensive trim—either scale sells into any reflexive bounce toward $290-295 (10 EMA $293.61 / 200 SMA $296.04 resistance zone) if trim not yet executed, or maintain that exposure level through the 10/28 Q1 FY27 print. Set hard close-only stop at $278; a confirmed daily close below triggers 25-30% accelerated trim toward $260-265. Consider November $280-strike puts as cheap tail-risk insurance if premium <1.5% of position value.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.69%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at the 9/29 defensive trim level (10-15% exposure) with hard close-only stop at $278.40; do not add fresh capital until MACD bullish cross, VWMA flattening, and RSI >40 confirmation stack prints. Do not trim further given the structural floor ($13.3B cash, 1.05x net debt/EBITDA, locked 5.9% GRI effective January 4, 2027). Binary resolution path: bullish invalidation above $296 on rising volume with RSI >50 flips structure bullish; bearish invalidation below $278 on volume ≥1.5M triggers 25-30% accelerated trim toward $260-265.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.83%

Status

scored

Hold with 10-15% defensive trim converting to magnitude-disciplined exposure while maintaining core conviction; do NOT initiate new positions at current price. Hard stop at $278.40 with acceleration trigger for additional 25-30% trim; re-engagement requires BOTH sustained reclaim of $304 with RSI >50 AND October 28 earnings demonstrating stabilizing restructuring trajectory.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.75%

Status

scored

Trim 15-20% of FDX exposure over 2-4 weeks to achieve modest Underweight tilt, scaling sells into bounces toward $290-295 resistance rather than chasing weakness. Retain core position at 0.4-0.5x normal sizing with hard stop at $273; re-engagement requires BOTH technical confirmation (close above $295.73 200 SMA with contracting MACD) AND fundamental validation (Q2 FY27 earnings or clean InPost close).

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.33%

Status

scored

FedEx rating is HOLD with a mild Underweight tilt, achieved through a 10-15% trim to reduce exposure to 2-3% portfolio weight, with a hard stop at $279 on the residual position. The trim should be executed into any reflexive bounce toward $290-295 (200 SMA/VWMA resistance zone) rather than chasing weakness. Reassessment is scheduled for Q2 FY27 earnings in December 2026, with re-engagement triggers including either a confirmed beat plus technical reversal above $295 with MACD turn, or a capitulation flush to $240-250.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.26%

Status

scored

Initiate a modest Underweight on FDX with a 15-20% trim of current exposure, synthesizing the correct directional bearish technical read with structural positives warranting core retention. Scale sells into bounces toward the $284–$295 resistance zone (lower Bollinger Band/200 SMA) rather than chasing weakness, with a close-only de-risk stop at $305–$308 above the 200 SMA. Re-evaluate post-Q1 FY27 earnings print in late September/early October 2026 as the binary resolution window.

Outcome

✗

Return

-4.10%

Status

scored

Establish an Overweight position in FedEx at $293 with a 50% starter sizing (50% of full position), implementing a close-only stop at $289.50. Scale to 75% on confirmed close above 200 SMA at $294.33 with rising volume and RSI curling above 35, then to 100% on close above 50 SMA at $316.58 with MACD histogram turning positive. Price targets are $316-$320 for mean-reversion play and $335-$340 on Freight spinoff catalyst (~$160 JPMorgan PT on spun entity). Add-on zone at $275-$280 for deeper pullbacks; hard stop at $270 on structural breach.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.50%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at the existing 2% portfolio cap with a hard stop at $293 (200 SMA failure on daily close with volume >1.5M), trimming 25-30% if triggered. The consensus across all three risk analysts, the Research Manager, and the Trader converges on Hold rather than Underweight or Overweight. Re-engagement is tiered: 25% starter on 10 EMA reclaim at $305, 50% on 50 SMA reclaim at $316.67, full position on $325; a time-decay clause forces a smaller 15% probe if the stock bases for 8-10 sessions without confirmation, preventing indefinite cash preservation per the 9/21 LMT reflection.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.05%

Status

scored

Maintain FedEx at current portfolio exposure with the 2% cap, neither adding at $295 into broken technicals nor trimming ahead of the binary Q1 FY27 earnings catalyst. Hard stop at $285 on any retained core position; add only on confirmed daily close above $317 with volume ≥1.5M or on washout to $260-280 with constructive reversal setup; de-risk to Underweight on confirmed daily close below $293 on volume >1.5M.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.59%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at 3–4% portfolio weight with the 200 SMA at $293.53 as the binding trailing stop. Adopt the tiered entry framework with defensive add below $297 and offensive adds at $309 and $317, while rejecting the Aggressive Analyst's 6–8% accumulation thesis due to concentration risk and probability-weighted R/R closer to 1.3:1–2:1 rather than the claimed 4:1. Re-evaluate at Q2 FY27 print in mid-December, with immediate downgrade to Underweight if price closes below $293.53 on volume ≥3M shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.73%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at the 2% portfolio cap as Hold, synthesizing consensus across all five analytical inputs. Add on confirmed close above $325 with volume >1.6M AND MACD histogram contracting (targeting $339-354), trim on dead-cat bounce at $317-319 if RSI fails to confirm, and cut to Underweight if daily close breaks below $293 on volume >1.5M (hard stop $292). The $325 trigger is non-negotiable at current $305 levels where the 16.6pp revenue/EPS gap and expanding bearish MACD create binary downside risk before structural catalysts (Q1 FY2027 earnings, Freight spin-off mid-FY27) can materialize.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.38%

Status

scored

Trim FDX to 40-45% model weight (55-60% trim), adopting Neutral Analyst's calibrated middle path while rejecting Trader's SELL framing (magnitude overshoot per 9/10) and Conservative's 70-75% trim (same error pattern). The 9/15 compressed ATR + binary catalyst lesson explicitly authorized larger trim magnitude; critical hedge correction from 9/14 FDX requires sizing put protection against FULL residual-core notional, not 50% of trim proceeds.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.12%

Status

scored

Underweight rating on FDX with 30-35% position trim into Q1 FY27 earnings, executed via contingent market order to address execution-gap risk in coiled tape conditions. Hard stop on residual core at $305 (not the rejected $321 which is too tight at 1.75 ATR), with ~50% of freed capital allocated to put hedge sized against full residual-core notional—approximately 30% of trim proceeds to puts at $295-$300 strikes.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.38%

Status

scored

UNDERWEIGHT rating on FDX with a 30–35% position trim, to be executed at $318–$319 (50 SMA rejection) or $307–$309 (lower Bollinger test), avoiding execution at the current $316 level. The residual 65–70% core position carries a $293 structural stop (weekly close below 200 SMA = thesis break) and $280 hard floor, with approximately one-third of freed capital to be redeployed into Dec/Mar put protection around $295–$300 strikes. Re-evaluation is scheduled post-Q1 FY27 earnings print and Fed meeting, with upgrade triggers requiring simultaneous revenue/EPS beats plus macro dovish confirmation, and downgrade triggers requiring earnings miss plus sustained price weakness below $295.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.19%

Status

scored

Underweight FDX at 30-35% of benchmark weight, trimming over 60-90 days via sales into relief rallies at $319-$325. Do NOT add at $308-$309 as the pending 10/50 death cross has not completed; hard stop $326, structural stop $291 weekly close. Q1 FY27 earnings is the binary resolution window requiring triple-confirmation re-engagement (volume-capitulation + RSI<25 + MACD divergence) rather than moving-average touch alone.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.06%

Status

scored

Trim 20-30% of FDX position at current $309 levels ahead of the Sept 16 Q1 FY27 binary catalyst; retain core with hard stop at $295 and structural stop at $291. Underweight rating reflects bearish technical confluence (MACD histogram -2.56, RSI 37.75, VWMA $16 above price) with only six trading days to the catalyst, avoiding the Hold alpha bleed pattern documented in prior reflections. Re-engagement triggers at $325 bullish reclaim or $278-285 flush provide defined re-entry architecture post-event.

Outcome

✗

Return

+0.84%

Status

scored

Reduce FDX exposure 30-50% from current levels around $322, retaining core with hard stop at $315 (closing basis) and structural stop at $290 weekly close. Re-engagement requires reclaiming $325.59 on volume ≥1.5M with RSI >50 and positive MACD histogram, or flush to $295-305 with oversold RSI <35 and MACD divergence. Price target lowered to $271 based on 13x forward EPS compression from premium 15.14x P/E in hostile 4.5%+ rate regime, with Q1 FY27 earnings (late September) as binary resolution catalyst.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.57%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at current sizing with a HOLD rating as the analytically honest position reconciling fresh bearish MACD signals against an intact structural floor. Key triggers include a pre-committed 10-15% trim before the September 16 FOMC and an immediate 20% reduction if FDX closes below the 50 SMA at $319.44 on volume ≥1.5M shares. Re-engagement paths include a $326 reclaim with RSI>50 and positive MACD histogram (25% starter, stop $305) or a pullback to the $310-318 zone with MACD stabilization (25% starter, stop $300). Q1 FY27 earnings in late September is the binary resolution window requiring both revenue maintenance at +12.5% growth and EPS exceeding the $6.88 Q4 FY25 comp to justify an upgrade to Overweight.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.60%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at Hold with explicit state-machine execution framework: hard stop $305, structural stop $289, conditional long trigger at $326 reclaim on 1.5M+ volume with RSI >50 and MACD histogram positive (scale 25% starter), and conditional trim trigger at $315 breakdown on 1.5M+ volume (cut half, tighten remainder stop). Q1 FY27 earnings (late September) is the binary resolution catalyst — must show EPS exceeding Q4 FY25 comp of $6.88 AND revenue maintaining +12.5% growth to shift to Overweight; miss on either metric shifts to Underweight.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.55%

Status

scored

Reduce FDX to no more than 60% of benchmark weight rather than fully exiting, executing tranches ahead of the September 11 CPI and September 16 FOMC events; maintain a core position given the structural franchise strength but do not add on the current pullback as the bearish momentum stack has not produced a confirmed base.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.45%

Status

scored

Underweight FDX with a 30-35% trim into the $328-331 resistance zone, executed in tranches, while holding the remaining core position with a hard stop at $312-314. The Q1 FY27 earnings in late September is the binary catalyst; re-engagement requires either a confirmed close above $345 on volume exceeding 2.5M shares or a full reset to oversold with positive MACD divergence and RSI below 35 targeting the $295-305 zone.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.57%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at neutral-weight relative to benchmark; do NOT add at current $324-326 levels given deteriorating momentum (below 10/20 EMA, fresh bearish MACD cross at -0.44, 18.33% 90-day drawdown) during the recovery narrative near 52-week highs. Position sizing stays disciplined per the trader's scale-in framework with stops at $311 (lower Bollinger band) and hard structural stop at $300, protecting against the binding constraints of beta 1.36, $42.9B gross debt, and two binary events ahead (Q1 FY27 earnings late September, AGM with shareholder proposals).

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.77%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at current weight as a disciplined Hold, balancing genuine structural strengths (12.4% revenue growth, 60% operating income growth, doubled cash to $13.3B, diversified catalyst pipeline) against fresh tactical fragility (MACD histogram collapsed 97% to 0.09 in 13 sessions, flat 50 SMA, hawkish Fed repricing). Do not initiate or add at $325-330; upgrade to Overweight requires both confirmed 50 SMA hold and MACD histogram re-expansion to ≥+0.50 on clean breakout above $340 with volume >1.5M shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.05%

Status

scored

Aggressive trim of FDX to 5-10% of portfolio mandated by the 8/27 reflection (beta>1.3 + asymmetric downside requires core retention ≤10%). Hard structural stop at $287 (just below 200 SMA) with practical re-evaluation trigger at $295 (1.5x ATR below current). Re-engagement zones: $295-$305 with triple-confirmation (positive MACD histogram turn, lighter volume, bullish reversal candle), OR confirmed close above $345 on volume ≥1.5M shares with MACD re-expansion.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.16%

Status

scored

Three analysts converge on SELL for FDX at $331.41, recommending trimming 60-75% of existing exposure while retaining a 15-20% core position with stops at $337-339. Re-engagement is deferred until Q1 FY27 earnings in early September, with entry zones at $305-310 (requiring triple-confirmation) or $295-300 (high-conviction if restructuring guidance clarifies).

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.36%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at current size while trimming 15-25% into $343-$345 resistance to lock in the +88% rally and reduce beta-1.36 exposure ahead of the late-September binary earnings catalyst; hard trailing stop at $328-330 with structural stop at $319. The HOLD honors both the constructive fundamental floor (FCF inflection, $13.31B cash, Freight spin-off pipeline) and the bearish technical risks (RSI divergence, gross margin compression, valuation premium) without expanding exposure into resistance.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.68%

Status

scored

Initiate FDX Overweight with staged entry (~0.5% initial position, one-third of intended 1.5% cap) at current $333-334 levels, using a tiered stop system with a practical stop at the 50 SMA near $319 and a hard structural stop at the 200 SMA at $285.73. Add the second tranche only on confirmed close above $342 on >1.5M shares with MACD re-expansion, or successful retest of the 10 EMA at ~$329 with RSI>50; reserve the final tranche for post-Q1 FY27 earnings confirmation of cash-flow quality and operating margin stability.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.10%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at ≤50% benchmark weight without adding at $334; trim incrementally only at $338-341 resistance using 1/3 scale blocks with confirmed bearish rejection. Hard stop on residual at $319.51 (50-SMA closing basis); a daily close below on >3M shares triggers further 25% reduction. Park trim proceeds in cash — the trader's Sell escalation is mechanically flawed ($345 stop is less than half of FDX's $8.01 ATR) and replicates a documented failure pattern per the 8/20-8/21 reflection; the Q1 FY27 earnings print (late September) is the decisive re-engagement catalyst.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.76%

Status

scored

Maintain existing FDX exposure at ≤50% benchmark weight (already underweighted), with no new positions initiated at $325 — wait for confirmed entry in the $295-310 zone with positive MACD histogram, lighter volume, and macro trigger clearance (Brent <$80 or Fed easing signal). Trim into $335-340 resistance on existing positions, with hard stop at $300.57 closing basis.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.29%

Status

scored

Trim FDX 45-50% to establish an Underweight position (retaining ~50-55% core), up-sizing from the prior 40% trim per the explicit 8/19 lesson that undersized trims produced only +0.1% alpha; execute at current $325-326 levels into a fading MACD/10 EMA test without chasing into the $335-342 resistance zone. Set hard stop at $310 closing basis on residual core; re-engagement triggers at $300-305 on confirmed support with positive MACD histogram, lighter volume, and one macro catalyst clearing. The rating reflects sub-0.5:1 risk/reward asymmetry (5-10% upside vs. 10-14% downside) amplified by beta 1.36, supported by five bear-case confirmations (Q4 EPS YoY decline, restructuring acceleration, tariff pass-through headwind, fading technicals, full valuation at 17.6x trailing) while preserving core exposure to structural catalysts (FCF inflection, Freight spin-off, Network 2.0 completion).

Outcome

–

Return

-0.71%

Status

scored

Trim 40% of the FDX position into the $337-342 resistance zone while maintaining a residual core at ≤50% of benchmark weight, as the risk/reward is sub-0.5:1 from current levels with beta 1.36 amplifying downside. Set the stop on the residual at $316 (closing basis), below the 50 SMA defense at $319.52, and do not initiate new longs—the constructive fundamental case supports holding a core position but current technicals and macro overhangs warrant defensive positioning through Q1 FY27 earnings in late September.

Outcome

✓

Return

0.00%

Status

scored

Trim 25-33% of FDX exposure in the $335-342 zone while retaining a 65-75% core position, as the ~0.4-0.6:1 R/R asymmetry and 1.36 beta make Hold produce alpha drag in this exact configuration per the 2026-08-17 meta-rule. Re-engage on pullback to $300-310 (lower Bollinger/50 SMA confluence) with MACD confirmation; structural stop at $282.50 (200 SMA closing basis), with invalidation above $345.37 on volume >3M shares.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.94%

Status

scored

Hold FDX at $331 with ~0.4-0.6:1 R/R for new adds (~$10-15 upside to $345 vs $25-36 downside to $298-310 zone); structural thesis intact but entry unattractive with stretched technicals (beta 1.36, RSI 60-63, upper Bollinger tag at $339.35) and binary macro events ahead; re-engage on confirmed pullback to $319-326 zone (10 EMA/50 SMA) with positive MACD histogram and lighter volume.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.94%

Status

scored

Trim 25-40% of FDX exposure to a 60-75% core position, targeting $340-345 for sales on any upper Bollinger push—do not chase additions. The Underweight rating reflects an unfavorable technical setup (RSI 63.54, beta 1.36, +83% in 12 months, widest MACD histogram at +2.95) combined with restructuring charge escalation (+268% over four years to $1,137M) and an underweighted Ground regulatory cascade from NYC/Illinois/Seattle/LA employment classification frameworks. Reassess after Q1 FY27 earnings in late September, with invalidation above $360 on volume >3M shares or re-entry on pullback to $298-310.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.39%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at benchmark weight while permitting a 10–15% satellite add near $339–340 on confirmed hold above $340.25 with volume ≥1.5M shares; stage the bulk of remaining adds 60/40 at $328–330 and $318–320 pullback zones respectively. Hard structural stop at $314 (closing basis), trim 20–30% on a push to $350 on heavy volume without fundamental support, and consider October $310/$280 put spread as 20–25% position hedge against the Q1 FY27 earnings binary.

Outcome

✗

Return

+3.85%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at benchmark weight on intact structural thesis (FY2026 FCF inflection +71.6%, margin 5.9%→7.0%, $13.3B cash) while avoiding chasing at current levels — upper Bollinger tag at $326.77 after +4.6% five-day squeeze with MACD at only 22% of its June peak, combined with 73.6% buyback cut funded by $5.29B new debt, makes the tactical entry unfavorable. Set defined re-engagement triggers at $318–$319 or $307–$310 pullback zones rather than adding at elevated price.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.35%

Status

scored

Maintain FDX at current sizing without adding capital at $322.43; the structural thesis (DRIVE 35% operating income expansion, FCF doubling, Freight spin-off catalyst) is intact but the entry lacks confirmation given thin volume, decelerating momentum, and an unresolved macro binary cluster. Use a hard stop at $279.09 and hedge 20–25% of the position with an October $310/$280 put spread.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.82%

Status

scored

Maintain current FDX exposure at Hold; do not add at $325 where risk/reward compresses to ~1.2:1 given gap risk with beta 1.36 ahead of CPI print. Execute tiered re-engagement: tier-one add at $313-319 on confirmed hold above 50 SMA with bullish candle; tier-two add on close above $326 with volume ≥1.5M shares. Stop at $310 (close below = breakout failed), trim 25-30% at $339-344 resistance on declining volume, and consider protective puts given macro binary events.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.04%

Status

scored

Maintain current FDX exposure without initiating new positions until technical resolution; the aggressive analyst's 2.7:1 R/R ratio is fabricated (actual 1.12-1.26), operating margin compressed from 7.18% to 6.99%, and MACD crossover below zero carries lower follow-through rates. The Research Manager's tiered plan provides bull triggers at $319.47 and $320.83 with volume confirmation, with a 4-6 week decision window as the Bollinger squeeze resolves.