TXN

Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

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Return

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Status

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Outcome

✓

Return

-1.55%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at HOLD with a pre-committed hedge upgrade (2.5-3% via $280/$260 put spread, ~4 weeks) due to symmetric-to-negative risk/reward at $288 with 13 days to the Oct 21 Q3 binary catalyst; do not add at current levels, but define specific entry triggers at $272 (50 SMA test with volume exhaustion) or $303+ (volume-confirmed breakout above upper Bollinger) while maintaining hard stop at $271.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.27%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at current position size with no add or trim, as the stock is extended at 27× forward EPS beyond the 2022 cycle peak with 89% of recovery captured and 14 days to a binary Q3 earnings catalyst. Upgrade the protective hedge from 1.5–2% to 2.5–3% of position via a $280/$260 put spread (~4 weeks duration) to directly address the lesson that Hold without a pre-committed hedge bleeds alpha; hold the $271 hard stop (50 SMA structural invalidation line). Q3 earnings on Oct 21 is the binding resolution point with a defined post-print action matrix.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.78%

Status

scored

TXN holds at Hold despite bullish structural case (35% ROE, $7B cash, 300mm fab moat) because entry at $297 is extended (RSI 72, 13% above breakout, Bollinger Band tagged) making it chasing rather than accumulating. Tier entry at $284-286 with RSI <65 (first 25%) and $275-278 (second 25%); hard stop at $271. Profit-take into $305-310. Position cap at 4% of book. Macro circuit breaker cuts position in half if 10Y breaks to fresh cycle highs.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.79%

Status

scored

Trim 40-50% of TXN into the $290-295 strength zone, tightening the stop to $297-298, while maintaining a 50-60% core position for franchise quality; establish a three-trigger re-entry framework anchored at $270-275 (50 SMA with RSI reset to 55-65), $260 (unconfirmed), and a failed-breakout reversal reclaiming $280 within 3-5 sessions, with time-stops 5 sessions before Q3 earnings to avoid silent participation caps.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.37%

Status

scored

Maintain OVERWEIGHT rating on TXN, initiating 40-50% of target allocation at $293.80 with a $270 hard stop (50 SMA), reserving 30-35% for a $278-285 scale-in on confirmed retest, and keeping 15-25% in reserve for either a deeper pullback to $260-265 or post-Q3 confirmation upgrade.

Outcome

✓

Return

+4.44%

Status

scored

Initiate a measured overweight position in TXN at $281 with 35-40% of target allocation, deploying the remainder via scale-in orders at $275, $267, and $260 with volume and macro confirmation, respecting a $248 hard stop and a time-stop that forces deployment within 5% of post-Q3 earnings price if the scale-in zone is not filled within 5 sessions before the late October catalyst.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.44%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at HOLD with a $265 price target over a 4-6 week horizon until the Q3 2026 earnings catalyst in late October. The rating reflects convergence among three analysts, supported by five consecutive prior Hold calls outperforming Underweight trims, with no confirmed fundamental break (revenue growth five consecutive quarters, GM at 5-quarter high of 61.4%, FCF inflecting ~4x YoY to $2.19B). The 42.5x trailing P/E richer than NVDA's 28.1x and hostile long-end rates (30Y at 2002 highs) preclude Buy/Overweight positioning, while the structural moat (300mm cost curve, 35% ROE, 23-year dividend growth streak) and empirical penalties against 15-20% trim magnitudes argue against Underweight.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.57%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at Hold rating with a price target of $280, as the stock sits at the top of its historical 18-30x P/E range at 26.5x forward multiples. Entry zones are defined at $265-272 with one of three confirmations (close below 10 EMA with RSI reset toward 50, volume spike exceeding recent average, or constructive macro print), while stop loss is set at $258 and trim trigger at $290 on weakening momentum. The Q3 2026 earnings in late October serves as the binary re-rating catalyst for potential upgrade to Overweight or downgrade to Underweight.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.21%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at HOLD with the position capped at 3% on new adds and no trimming of existing shares, as three consecutive quarters of gross margin expansion (55.9% → 58.0% → 61.4%), FCF inflection from $555M to $2.19B, and a 23-year dividend streak support the structural floor while Q3 2026 earnings in late October serves as the binary re-rating catalyst.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.09%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at Hold with $265 price target and 4-8 week horizon awaiting the Q3 2026 earnings catalyst in late October. Do not add at $278 (26x forward P/E at peak multiple into binary event), but do not trim given confirmed fundamental inflection (Q2 FCF of $2.19B at 40.1% margin, three consecutive quarters of GM expansion from 55.9% to 61.4%). Scale-in zone is $250-260 with explicit volume confirmation gate (>6M shares on any push above $278 before first tranche).

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.74%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at neutral weight with active-patience framework. The 9/21 reflection is dispositive: when directional asymmetry rests on technical resistance rather than deteriorating fundamentals (revenue +22.8% YoY, GM at 61.4%, EPS nearly doubled off trough), trim magnitudes bleed alpha. The risk-reward is roughly 1:1 ($22.65 downside to $248 stop vs $14-29 upside to $285-300) — not asymmetric at 25.4x forward PE in a Fed hiking regime. Capture the 2.23% dividend carry and wait for Q3 2026 earnings catalyst in late October to resolve the peak-vs-inflection debate.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.72%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at Hold with a pre-committed tactical-trigger framework rather than committing fresh capital to the bearish side at current knife-edge levels. The structural bearish arguments (25.6x forward P/E pricing in 62% EPS recovery, 10pp gross margin gap, asymmetric risk/reward) are well-supported but remain unconfirmed by observed fundamentals, as revenue has grown five consecutive quarters and FCF has inflected to $2.19B. Q3 2026 earnings in late October is the binary catalyst that resolves the structural-versus-cyclical tension; until then, Hold respects documented empirical patterns where recent Underweight trims bled alpha against an unconfirmed thesis.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.45%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at Hold with a moderate trim bias of 15-20% on rallies to $280-290, as the forward PE of 25.5x sits at the top of the 18-30x historical range and Q3 earnings in late October represents an unresolved binary catalyst; scale in 25% only on confirmed close above $272.16 on volume, with a hard stop at $243 (200 SMA) on the full position.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.20%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at Underweight with a 15–20% trim at current levels (~$270–$272), preserving a core stake for the structural thesis (300mm cost advantage, 2.18% dividend carry) and the Q3 2026 earnings catalyst in late October. Set stop at $258 daily close (below the 10 EMA and September consolidation floor), cap portfolio weight at 1.5%, and avoid the trader's $280 stop as it is structurally inverted and creates false confidence.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.59%

Status

scored

Analysts recommend trimming 40-45% of TXN exposure on rallies into the $268-273 resistance zone with a $253 stop (below September swing low of $253.34), capping position at 1.5% of portfolio; re-entry is event-driven tied to Q3 2026 earnings rather than price-based. The bearish thesis rests on 65% cyclical revenue exposure to weak industrial/auto end markets, $14.05B debt with $3.88B debt-funded capital return, and forward P/E at 25x top of historical range.

Outcome

✗

Return

+3.29%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at HOLD with active patience framework, neither adding fresh capital at the current $258 price (39x TTM PE / 24x forward PE at top of range) nor aggressively trimming given the 200 SMA at $241 institutional floor. Execute 5-10% trim on any relief rally into $268-272, with main add zone at $252-258 on declining volume confirmation; full Overweight upgrade requires daily close above $274 on >5M volume or constructive Q3 2026 earnings print.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.97%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at current position size as HOLD rating is appropriate given the $260 price at the top of fair value range ($225-280) and three binary catalysts ahead (FOMC 9/16-17, Q3 earnings late October, US-China tariff deadline). Do not add at current levels (broken medium-term trend, inside-down reversal from $267.97 high to $260.67 close) and do not trim (intact structural thesis with Q2'26 revenue +22.8% YoY, EPS +52% YoY, FCF inflection from $555M to $2.189B). Hard thesis-breaker is $241 weekly close.

Outcome

–

Return

-1.05%

Status

scored

Maintain an Underweight rating on TXN with a target of $258, executing a 20-30% trim in two phases to fix the original structural flaw of a stop placed above entry on a short position. Phase 1 trims 10-15% into relief-rally strength above $265 with a hard stop at $258, while Phase 2 trims another 10-15% only after Fed reaction confirms weakness via a close below $258 on >5M volume or yields staying above 5% on the 10Y. The residual position is maintained for dividend carry (~$5.96 annual, ~2.3% yield) and re-engagement optionality.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.00%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at current position size with price at $263 sitting between defined zones ($250-258 add, $275-280 trim). The trader's probability math (4.5% upside vs 5.7% downside) does not justify fresh capital deployment at premium valuation, while historical lessons confirm trimming below resistance forfeits alpha when the structural floor holds at $240.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.97%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at neutral sizing with $258 hard stop and $235-240 high-conviction add zone. Consider modest starter add of 15-20% of target Overweight size only on confirmed daily close above $272 with volume above 5M shares; reserve remaining capacity for $280 breakout or $235-240 pullback. Do not initiate aggressive longs above $272 given the 9/9 precedent where MACD crossover plus sub-50 RSI failed, and do not trim into current +3.8% strength given prior lessons confirming -1.5% to -3.0% alpha drag from trimming with intact structural thesis.

Outcome

✗

Return

+3.82%

Status

scored

Trim TXN 5-10% at current $258.82 to capture cost-basis cushion while preserving ~90-95% of the structural thesis, with hard stop at $247 weekly close. Re-engagement to Hold requires daily close >$264 with volume >5M AND RSI >50; Overweight upgrade requires >$278 close on volume >5M (50 SMA reclaim) OR constructive Q3 2026 earnings. Add tactical trim trigger at $265-270 zone for relief-bounce fail scenario.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.06%

Status

scored

Initiate Tranche 1 at 25% of target Overweight position concentrated in the $257-261 zone, with hard stop at $247.45 on closing basis only. Reserve 35% dry powder for daily close above $264.50 with volume above 5M, and remaining 40% for daily close above $278.37 (50 SMA reclaim) with volume above 6M. Trim 50% if Q3 revenue falls below $5.2B or operating margin below 40%, and upgrade to Buy on EPS beat above 10% with margin above 41%. Q3 2026 earnings in late October serves as the binary confirmation catalyst.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.03%

Status

scored

TXN is rated Underweight with a tactical recommendation to trim 20–25% of the current position now while retaining a smaller core, using a $228 daily-close stop as the risk trigger. The position should be reassessed if TXN reclaims roughly $265.50 with improving momentum, stabilizes near the $238–$240 support area, or Q3 results provide a more constructive earnings/FCF outlook, with the next thesis-resolution catalyst being Q3 2026 earnings.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.19%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at Hold with a neutral position size pending technical confirmation, as the 6-12 month structural thesis remains intact but valuation leaves the stock vulnerable to multiple compression. A confirmed close above $266.55 with RSI above 50 and rising volume, or a capitulation-style $237-247 retest, would warrant adding exposure, while a close below $237.48 on rising volume would justify reducing to Underweight.

Outcome

✗

Return

+1.82%

Status

scored

Reduce TXN exposure by 10-15% at current $253-254 levels to address the pattern of failed trim targets and alpha drag from prior Hold decisions; maintain 85-90% of benchmark weight in residual position with a hard stop at $230 weekly close, while acknowledging intact Q2 fundamentals (35.2% ROE, 61.4% gross margin, FCF inflection) and dividend coverage gap ($5.16B dividend vs $3.55B TTM FCF) warrant against full exit.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.38%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at current exposure with a HOLD rating, as the $235 entry is structurally excellent but near-term technicals (MACD re-widening to -1.06, RSI at 36.89) and precedent from the 8/7 Overweight at $288 (-1.9% alpha) argue against adding at $254. Four staged add triggers are defined (lower Bollinger bounce at $250.16, 200 SMA retest at $235-242, $282 breakout on 5M volume, Q3 print confirmation), along with three trim triggers including relief bounces at $265-270 to address the 8/31 ADBE lesson. The Q3 2026 earnings in late October is the binary catalyst that should resolve the bull/bear standoff.

Outcome

–

Return

+0.58%

Status

scored

Trim TXN to 60-70% of benchmark weight via staged tranches on relief bounces into $260-265 (Tranche 1, ~15%) and confirmed $270-275 resistance (Tranche 2, ~10-15%), preserving exposure to 200 SMA support at $235. Widen stop to $225 with explicit re-evaluation protocol rather than hard exit, and consider put spreads at $230-235 strikes to hedge the Q3 binary catalyst, with full position review due at Q3 2026 earnings in late October.

Outcome

✗

Return

-2.90%

Status

scored

The portfolio manager is maintaining a HOLD rating on TXN based on a balanced assessment that the 21% pullback from highs has not invalidated strong Q2 fundamentals (revenue $5.46B, FCF $2.19B, ROE 35.2%) but the technical picture remains broken with the 200 SMA at $235 untested and the 24.5x forward P/E appearing stretched. The position will be managed via explicit triggers: reduce 50% on weekly close below $235, add 25-50% on daily close above $275 with volume >7M shares, and hold through Q3 earnings as the binary catalyst.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.88%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at existing $258.64 with no fresh capital deployment; the structural thesis (200 SMA at $235, 35% ROE, FCF inflection to $2.19B) remains intact but the 6.8% post-earnings drop signals institutional skepticism, and the 3:1 reward-to-risk math converts to ~1.5:1 on realistic tail-weighted outcomes given the 200 SMA regime boundary risk. Tiered re-engagement triggers are set at 10 EMA reclaim $265.44 with RSI>50 and volume, or alternatively at defended $235 with RSI sub-30, with protective puts at $240 strike for 60-90 days to hedge the Q3 2026 earnings binary risk.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.96%

Status

scored

Trim TXN exposure by 25-40% into strength at $273 and $285 resistance levels, not current weakness, preserving residual position with stop at $255 daily close. The Forward P/E math (25.04x × $10.64 = $266) shows TXN is fairly valued with no margin of safety, while five concurrent bearish technical signals and a 28% Q2 receivables spike against 13% revenue growth create asymmetric risk/reward that favors rotating capital into clearer setups.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.82%

Status

scored

Hold TXN at approximately $262 given the disconnect between constructive fundamentals (record Q2 2026 revenue/EPS, 60% YoY capex reduction, ~35% ROE, $11.3B operating cash flow) and challenging technical conditions (below 10 EMA and 50 SMA, accelerating negative MACD, 29.8M-share distribution event). Add only after a confirmed 200-SMA test at $234-$245 with reversal evidence or a volume-confirmed reclaim above $286-$288; exit if weekly close drops below $234 with $230 as hard risk.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.66%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at $260 without fresh capital deployment despite the Research Manager's Overweight and Trader's Buy calls. The fundamental bull case is compelling (35.2% ROE, 31% net margins, fair value at $324.45, FCF recovery to $2.60B) but technical conditions remain broken below the 50 SMA at $287 with MACD widening at -6.41 and RSI at 37.40 showing no bullish divergence, creating a setup functionally identical to the successful 8/24 Hold decision. Layered adds are only triggered at $245 with RSI sub-30 or bullish reversal candle confirmation; hard stop sits at $230 (200 SMA).

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.43%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN exposure without adding at current levels ($258.94); the aggressive analyst's tactical ADD is rejected based on broken technical structure despite elite Q2 2026 fundamentals (42.6% operating margins, $2.19B FCF, 35%+ ROE). Layer staged adds at $245 only with RSI sub-30 OR bullish reversal candle confirmation, trim into $270-275 resistance, with hard stop at $232 (200 SMA). Q3 2026 earnings in late October is the binary catalyst for full re-engagement.

Outcome

✓

Return

-2.05%

Status

scored

Trim 40-50% of TXN exposure via limit orders at or just above current $264 weakness, with hard stop at $263.59 daily close. Three independent bearish signals—EPS consensus requiring 75% H2 acceleration (mathematical fantasy), buyback collapse to $27M from $158M (management voting against their own price), and confirmed technical breakdown with MACD at -0.91 and RSI at 39—all point the same direction. Re-engagement requires either Q3 beat-and-raise (revenue >$5.4B, GM >60%, buybacks >$100M) or structural reclaim of $232-245 zone with MACD histogram contracting; avoid adding at lower band.

Outcome

✓

Return

-0.47%

Status

scored

Trim 20-25% of TXN position into current ~$265 weakness via limit/market order; do not wait for relief bounce. Hold residual with hard stop at $231.90 (200 SMA weekly close) — re-engagement requires confirmed close above $289.45 on >7M volume or Q3 2026 earnings beat-and-raise (revenue >$5.5B, EPS >$2.20). Maintain optionality while reducing exposure to hostile technical structure and macro backdrop with beta 1.325.

Outcome

–

Return

-0.69%

Status

scored

Trim TXN 25-33% to reach underweight vs benchmark, selling into relief bounces at $275-280 rather than current $267 weakness, with hard stop at $255 on residual exposure. Avoid any additions until Q3 2026 earnings in late October provides binary directional resolution, and re-engage only on confirmed technical signals (close > $276 on volume, RSI > 50, MACD positive, lower Bollinger reclaimed 2 sessions).

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.76%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at current 2-3% position sizing through the August 28 Jackson Hole catalyst without adding ahead of the event. The $267 hard stop remains the primary risk control and no put hedge is warranted at current sizing since the existing stop framework handles binary event risk at zero additional cost. Re-engagement is contingent on post-Jackson-Hole resolution combined with either defended $267 support with non-hawkish macro tone (scale toward 3%) or confirmed close above $292 on >7M volume (evaluate upgrade to 4%), with Q3 2026 earnings in October as the decisive directional catalyst.

Outcome

✗

Return

-3.77%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at a tighter 3% portfolio cap (down from 3-4%) with a $269 daily-close stop as the primary exit signal and $267.70 as the hard technical line; do not deploy fresh capital at current levels and do not crystallize gains mid-recovery. Re-engagement requires either a confirmed close above $292 on volume >7M shares or a stabilized pullback into the $255-265 zone, with Q3 2026 earnings serving as the binary catalyst for directional resolution.

Outcome

✓

Return

+1.19%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN exposure without deploying fresh capital at the current $279.58 quote; instead, place a contingent BUY limit order at $265 (aligned with the 200 SMA and lower Bollinger Band conviction-add zone) with a hard stop at $254, and require a confirmed close above the $291 50 SMA on greater than 7M shares volume before any incremental position build at current levels.

Outcome

✗

Return

+2.25%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN exposure without deploying new capital or pre-emptively trimming in the current $267-$274 area. Record Q2 results (35% ROE, 4x FCF to $2.19B) and intact 200 SMA near $229 argue against selling, while price below key moving averages, lower highs, and a negative MACD line at -3.99 make buying premature. Hold the core position with a 25-40% trim trigger on $269 high-volume breakdown and a staged addition plan requiring $278.55 10 EMA reclaim with MACD confirmation.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.14%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN exposure at ~$276 with a Hold rating as the constructive Q2 2026 fundamentals (revenue +22.8% YoY, FCF $2.19B, 35% ROE) and intact 200 SMA at $228 confirm the secular thesis, but broken short-term technicals (price below 50 SMA at $292, negative MACD at -3.74) and stretched 26.6x forward P/E on 58%-above-TTM estimates warrant waiting for one of two triggers to resolve before committing incremental capital.

Outcome

✓

Return

-1.65%

Status

scored

Maintain TXN at the $279 entry basis with the $269 hard stop unchanged; do not deploy fresh capital at current elevated valuations (27x forward P/E, PEG 1.24) given broken trend structure, four failed 50 SMA tests, and negative MACD (-3.68). Re-engage only on a confirmed close above $292 with above-average volume and MACD line crossing positive, with full Overweight reset requiring soft September CPI data plus breakout confirmation.

Outcome

✓

Return

+0.29%

Status

scored

Hold maintained as the 50 SMA at $292.94 remains broken amid an intact three-lower-highs pattern ($332 → $309 → $288), with the Q2 FCF inflection ($555M → $2.19B) and 52% EPS growth providing constructive fundamentals but insufficient justification for Overweight given deteriorating technical structure and macro headwinds. Two re-engagement triggers are defined: Trigger A initiates Tranche 1 (25% of target, ~0.75% portfolio) on a confirmed close above $292.94 on above-average volume, while Trigger B (preferred) initiates at 33% of target on a retest of $264-269 with a reversal candle, both with a hard stop at $260 weekly close.

Outcome

✗

Return

-1.97%

Status

scored

Initiate a 1.0% portfolio position in TXN at $288 with a hard stop at $265 (below the Bollinger lower band at $264.61), scaling to 2.0% only on a confirmed daily close above the 50 SMA at $293.62 on above-average volume. Reassess after MCHP earnings in late August as an industrial analog confirmation catalyst, and again after TXN Q3 earnings in October as the primary thesis test.